Hazey

Looks like the good period starts just before or on Valentine’s Day. Might sneak something in before that. We wait and watch.

If you happen to be lucky enough to have pack, it makes going through these lulls a lot easier. Nothing worse than boring weather and snowless landscape. Mid Feb will be here soon enough and hopefully another favorable period. 

9” (23cm) final. Snow was easy to move thankfully. Finally winter again.

Looks like about 7 or 8” down and still snowing. Going out to snowblow in a bit. Will measure then.

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS does get a close h5 low over Hazey in Nova Scotia on the mean…there must be some decent members further west because it has 1-2” of snow for eastern New England during that D8 period. 

This could possibly be the most interesting period of the winter. If models hold, we can get some wild solutions. I'm sure the angst will be palpable in the coming days...lol

I'm starting to wonder if the GFS is suffering from some sort of de-amplification bias. That s/w on the 1st is sailing off ESE to Bermuda. Been doing that a fair amount this season.

The GFS just won't come around. Stubborn. Even the Icon has come back much more robust.  

Always turds in the punchbowl. Virtually impossible to get a decently clean snowstorm look. 1 model goes high, then next one goes low. 

If the GFS can decide which s/w to hang it's hat on, we might get somewhere.

Canadian lead the charge on this one. Won’t be much. Next.

That euro look at 240hr is showing airmass direct from Iqaluit straight to the northeast. That could dump some ice cold air in from that source region. Worth watching.

Icon was a whiff as well. Can't learn anything from the models in the 84 - 144 hr range. Too inconsistent to be helpful. 

Canadian doesn't amplify. Exit right. At least it's something to track. 

We've had a couple of favourable periods since post Christmas. I didn't see anything out of those but that doesn't mean it wasn't favouable. You guys cashed in some during January. It is what it is.

West coast is now the new east coast. Not sure of the mechanics behind this shift but it's noticeable. My buddy in Vancouver texted me last night. Just posted  a 12 burger yesterday. They are expecting another 8 tonight and tomorrow. They also had a 10" storm earlier this month. I've had one 8" storm on Dec 4 and that's been it except for rainers and mild intervals. There is something to this constant troughing out west and ridge east. 

Tomorrow's system is kick in the balls. Just can't get the s/w's to amplify when we need them to. Instead they just slide off the coast and east to the flemish cap. Annoying

Looks cold for the next little while. At least you guys have snow on the ground. Wiped clean here and have to start again. Would be nice to get some skating in on the ponds. Fingers crossed for Feb works out better than this month otherwise the rat is nibbling. 

Seems the globals want to chase that convection off shore. Hence the way ots depiction. They also did that with todays snow until they caught on and got a clue. A slim chance that happens again. Something has to break right for once. 

Remember most of you guys had written off todays snower a few days ago. Keep the faith. Sometimes they come back.

One can hope the Canadian models find the nut again. Scored a coup on this system today. That’s all we got.

So What is causing the predominately western troughing? Will we cut loose of it one of these winters?

5 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

I see it as a sign of the times as in how certain individuals personalities have changed, and how they react to situations and other individuals.  It's quite evident even in my daily life. Dealing with attitudes of those under 30 is QUITE different to say the least. That feel or attitude seems to show up in these forums, just like our daily work life. I'd love to blame it all on social media, but that certainly isn't all that's caused it. On another note, I don't think it's logical to call recent winters fleeting as if we'll never have another good one again. I've lived through too many long stretches that were worse than this. It was only a couple years ago we had a couple that were really good, and some more than that only a couple years prior

Different reasons but we'll see....lol

Just a sign of the times. Winters are getting more fleeting. People are a lot more moodier and abrasive in the last few years. A decent winter would go a long ways if we can get one.

The mid range (84-120hrs) euro and gfs for that matter were absolutely dreadful with this system. The Canadian models with the Bay of Fundy track will end up being correct. Can't trust anything outside 72hrs now. That's why i didn't invest in this. Too much rug pulling this season.  Congrats to those that actually see accumulations.  

Can see the Pope's warmup at the end of the euro run. Hopefully short lived as many of us will have snow otg if models are right. 

Needs to get inside 3 days before we can get a good handle on it. Until then, it's follow the bouncing ball. 

Can someone post the 06z EPS please? for those of us who don't get that product.