jaydreb

The school closures coincided with the general social distancing and shutdowns in many places, so I’m not sure that this isn’t just a correlation without a cause.

We desperately need rapid result testing. No one should be setting foot in a nursing home unless they are tested first.

Seeing as though just about every country has instituted some form of a shutdown, I’m not sure what your point is. We’re not seeing overwhelmed hospitals (thankfully) because we’ve been social distancing and staying home. Had we not done so, we very well might have been overwhelmed. It’s like asking someone who doesn’t have dandruff why they are using dandruff-preventing shampoo.

The model that predicts 60,000 deaths assumes that social distancing continues through the end of May. If that doesn’t happen (and it won’t), all bets are off.

Apparently they are open for walking, swimming, jogging, etc., but no group activities and social distancing must be practiced. What is allowed: Walking and running Biking Fishing Dog walking, which is allowed during all hours the beaches are open Swimming Surfing Participating in recreational activities consistent with social guidelines What is prohibited: Sunbathing Towels and blankets Chairs Coolers Grills Loitering on the beach without moving Congregating in groups larger than 10 people

We really could use some (potential) good news. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/16/sp-500-etf-jumps-2percent-after-hours-on-report-gilead-drug-showing-effectiveness-treating-coronavirus.html

This. It looks like people are falling into the trap of saying the numbers aren’t that bad, so why are we shutting down. When it simply means that the shut downs are working.

I don’t see it in the guidelines. I haven’t watched the briefing yet so it’s possible it’s addressed by Birx/Fauci. EDIT: Apparently they are saying that each county within a state can be on a different Phase. Not sure how well that will work considering that people travel around.

It’s here under “Criteria”. https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/ Satisfy Before Proceeding to Phased Comeback SYMPTOMS Downward trajectory of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) reported within a 14-day period AND Downward trajectory of covid-like syndromic cases reported within a 14-day period CASES Downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period OR Downward trajectory of positive tests as a percent of total tests within a 14-day period (flat or increasing volume of tests) HOSPITALS Treat all patients without crisis care AND Robust testing program in place for at-risk healthcare workers, including emerging antibody testing

FAUCI: "You don't get to phase one until you get through the gating... if you get no rebound and satisfy the gating yet a second time, then you go to phase two. If you have no rebound and you satisfy the gating criteria for a third time, then you go into phase three."

Did you see the Phases?

They are going to “begin opening” on May 1 - whatever that means.

NJ schools now closed through May 15. I think MD is through April 30? DC is through the end of next week? Not a lot of states in the area following Virginia’s early decision to close schools for the whole academic year.

Fauci has said that deaths will lag behind other indicators and will be the last thing to decrease. I think the key indicator to look at is new hospitalizations. New cases doesn’t tell us much because it could simply be the result of doing more testing.

That’s how we are doing it in VA.

Everyone has been saying this, even federal officials like Fauci and Birx.

Now I agree with pretty much all of this. I don’t see things starting to open up in our area until around June 1 - and even then it will be a gradual process.

It’s around 20% of reported cases, not ALL cases, which is a big difference. Again, we simply don’t know the true hospitalization rate - just as we don’t know the true death rate.

I’m not talking about just symptomatic vs. asymptomatic. I’m talking about tested vs. not tested. For a variety of reasons, even many symptomatic people are not getting tested. The people getting tested are largely the sicker ones and thus are more likely to require hospitalizations. I’m not trying to downplay the nastiness of the virus or the need to avoid it. I just don’t think we can say 20% end up in a hospital.

Just curious why you are saying 20% end up in a hospital? It may be that 20% of people who test positive end up in a hospital, but as you know that number is skewed by the fact that only people who have enough symptoms even get tested in the first place, and many of those tests are done in hospitals. There are certainly many people who have the virus but don’t get tested because they have no symptoms or have mild symptoms and don’t bother with a test. I will be very surprised if it turns out that 20% of all people who get the virus have to be hospitalized. But maybe I am missing some research on this.

The way out is aggressive mitigation until we reduce the number of cases to the point that we can contact trace. We continue to do that until we have a therapeutic or a vaccine.

Yes I see what you are saying, but it looks like the model hasn’t been updated for several days. Also, I don’t think it’s realistic to expect a model to accurately nail the amount of deaths within a few hundred or even a few thousand. I think we have to see the final results before we can judge overall, as its possible more people die today than expected and less people die next week, with the end result being more or less the same. How has it been doing with respect to hospitalizations? If it’s way off on that then I think that’s more telling. Just my $.02.

The model only predicts less than 1,000 more deaths between now and the end of the month. If the prediction of a sharp dropoff in deaths are true, it may still end up pretty close. Also, the 20,333 is very close to the cone of uncertainty in the model for total deaths as of today.

I don’t know for sure but he could be referring to the number of asymptomatic carriers and the long incubation period.