jaydreb
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Everything posted by jaydreb
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12z
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Looks unchanged from 12z but let me pull some maps.
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Pretty weenieish GEFS run.
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Accuracy will be higher at shorter time leads, so the fact that GFS at 72-84 seems to be an improvement over where it was at 12z is encouraging. What happens when the storm gets to 100+ hours is still within the envelope of uncertainty.
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I’m not seeing it on WB.
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Warmest EPS panel.
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Perhaps not surprisingly the EPS jogged west a bit from 6z.
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Still early, but gotta say I’m impressed how everything has been trending towards the GFS once again. It was the first to sniff out this inland track and ensembles and European seem be playing catch up.
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Pretty decent jump in snowfall map for DC on GEFS FWIW. 6z
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Warmest panel on GEFS.
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GEFS rolling in. 6z
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Pics or it didn’t happen.
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CMC looks a lot like GFS, maybe slightly better for the western suburbs. Can’t ignore that all the major ops have almost the same solution.
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GEFS doesn’t have members riding as far west as the op but it’s definitely a bit west of its 18z run.
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18z
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Weird with the ops running this further to the west that the EPS is pushing it the other way.
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If you can’t decide whether to worry about suppression or cutter, hopefully it means you’re in a good spot.
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Yeah. Sorry.
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18z EPS low positions look a lot like the GEFS and nothing like the op GFS.
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Pretty remarkable divergence. The big L is the OP.
