TJW014

I think the biggest uncertainty we're going to have with this system is the energy coming from northern Canada. That has a lot to interact with over the next few days as it does a 360 degree loop over James Bay.

The signal is there, and there’s lots of model agreement on a potential Miller A. That's all I really care about until we get to Wednesday. Then we can start ironing out the smaller details (placement, strength, etc)

Times like these are when owning a 4WD vehicle is worth the 13 mpg I get year round. My winch and tow strap were busy yanking plowed in cars throughout the neighborhood. Also had to winch my brother's car out of the driveway at 4:30 this morning so he could make it to the police academy. Currently out on the gas golf cart "plowing" (I strapped a shovel to the front) the sidewalks open.

7 days out and looks almost perfect. That means this will either be a cutter to the Great Lakes, or snow doesn't make it north of Richmond

I feel like some of these snowfall reports, especially public ones may be too high and too low. A lot of drifting took place. I have spots in my yard with drifts knee deep, and spots with bare ground.

Got more from December 14. 8" vs 6.5". That was all snow, easy to clear the roads, cars, driveways. Not a fan of these snow to mix events.

Right along the bayfont. Not as powdery this way.

Transitioning to freezing rain. 6" OTG.

5.5". Sleet beginning to mix in.

3.5" as of 9:45. Temp up to 30.

Incredible not even half that on the other side of town.

1". So far not impressed with rates here. Temp up to 24.

Last call. Zero changes to the map from yesterday afternoon. Let's see how it goes...

Updated map. Will this pan out? No clue, but that's why I'm not a met. Some minor tweaks from the last one, and unless we see major trends within the next 24 hours, I don't think I'll make any adjustments. I guess you could call it a near worse-case scenario but I'm sticking to a lower/conservative side. I think the mixing line makes it up to CT, then following just north/west of the Fall Line. ENE winds will bring a period of rain to coastal NJ, keeping totals lower. Freezing rain up to 0.25" possible for inland NJ, south of Raritan Bay. However, if the mixing line quickly retreats, or doesn't even make it that far north/east, totals here will be higher, possibly add 50% to what's projected on the map (not in pink). Areas north/west of Easton, PA - Mahwah, NJ should remain all snow, 12-18" likely, possibly higher amounts in higher elevations.

WSW issued. Mt Holly still going with 10-15" here.