JakkelWx

turkey farts cause global warming

43/33 after an afternoon high of 54. 

1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

I see the blocking pattern as transitory. December should be warmer. 

Wow what a whopper from Chuck

I like the countless good signs heading into not just December, but the winter as a whole. So far, anything bad that was advertised on previous models keeps busting and turning into a favorable pattern. I've seen this with the CFS, forecasting a warm November but that obviously is busting. I'm still on board with a decent start to December with a few threats to alleviate our PTSD (Post-Tracking stress disorder), and the DJF as a whole. I don't see any signs of a strong PV or a raging positive AO/NAO, instead that the upcoming winter will be fun (At least we are starting December with a not-craptastic pattern, given the consistency of warm/unfavorable December patterns for snow and cold that I've seen the past five years. Just my two cents.

Beautiful sunset....

with an unfortunate assist from the CA wildfires 

Temp shot up to 45F/DP 45. Sharp temperature gradient between me and 10 miles, checked in on some PWS' in Chestertown which are in the 30s.

Ripping raindrops and 38/38

GEFS in the long range is ring around the rosy. Ditto, best pattern I've seen since December 2009. Maybe even better. I remember that snowstorm, I had just graduated high school across the Chessy bay before I moved here... Snow was hella deep shoveling, and I wore a Hawaii-theme short sleeve shirt shoveling snow for fun...good times

37/31. Expecting little more than potentially a half hour or maybe an hour of mix before rain here

8 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

We're starting Dec with the best pattern since 09 if the models have it right. It's been forever. Dec 2010 had an incredible block but it was a nina and we had one of the worst busts I've ever experienced. Boxing day storm literally ruined Christmas day for me. Lol. Weather is serious shizzle 

Phew. Impressive GEFS mean continues to spit out amazing looks, use for your snowmageddon..lol. In all seriousness, it's very hard not to like this look. EPS not as gung ho with a -NAO but it's still there, correct me if I'm wrong

Wow these snow maps. Goldsboro, MD looks like it could be snow/wintry mix for a couple hours then rain possibly for the rest of the event. Still a win because it's only mid-November.

What a shift from a somewhat warm December forecast 1-2 weeks ago to all out -NAO and -AO blocking. I am pretty confident that the latter may verify, and the GEFS raises my eyebrows in a good way (also the model 500 ensembles). Therefore, i'm adding 10 inches to all of the locations in my forecast (for the whole winter), although even that may be conservative. Changed DCA to make it more realistic and added around 9'' to RICs.

BWI : 42''

DCA: 32''

IAD : 41''

RIC : 26''

Tie Breaker - SBY: 23''

Currently 45 degrees after a high of 51. Dewpoint rising as well, as rain is crossing the chesapeake bay.

Can't wait until it's early december and ripping fatties in my yard with this -NAO and -AO. 

RIP Stan Lee

10:1 ratios are probably suspect given mid-November climo.

Both the AO and the NAO forecast to go negative almost in time for the beginning of snow season. I take and run. Some members have it diving to record low levels and is big news for a cold December. The only thing missing is the PNA, which is currently negative and looks to slowly move towards neutral or maybe slightly positive

Edit: Click to refresh 

nearest PWS temp down to 26 already after a high of 49...cold

Let it sneaux

If you want snow this winter, you should probably change your profile pictures to like a desert, or "skiing with no snow on ground" in my case. Reverse jinx.

temp down to 31... a little warmer just 10 miles west near the chessy bay

45 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I went way back and grabbed a photo from Dec 2009 for my new profile pic. Don't think I have ever used it before.

I probably just destroyed all our hopes and dreams.

That snow in your profile picture is long gone, but you may see the same frozen water in snowflakes because of the water cycle

6 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Turnout looks to be very high this year- already have 32 people playing! Keep 'em coming!

 

@JakkelWx I assume this is still your current forecast and not the troll shutout one you posted later, right? Put any updates you ever have in this one too.

 

Correct, that is not my troll forecast.

4 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

We got so many high calls that right now someone could forecast a shutout and probably win if we'd go 50% climo or less.

First guess:

BWI: 0''

DCA: 0''

IAD: 0''

RIC: 0''

Tiebreaker - SBY: 0''

Subject to change when it starts snowing