Here in Arlington, in SE Middlesex county like 5 miles from Boston we've been getting pounded on and off since this morning. Last measurement I took a half hour ago was 14" and growing fast.
Cranky is saying that the fact that the trof is sweeping and not digging and the fact that the low is racing ENE means that the Eastern guidance will win out. What does the forum think?
Just amateur observations but not only is the HRRR trending west by 50 or 60 miles every run, but the trof is digging down slightly further each time. Probably just noise though
These pressures are just ridiculously low. 963 mb is impressive, enough to throw precip almost as west as the previous run despite being much farther east
Thanks, I've lurked on this forum for the Wednesday storm and I saw the word weenie being tossed around and I was shocked that no one had chosen it yet.
I feel like this is one of those storms that has so many complicated interactions going on we won't know exactly where it's going until it's already formed and begun to phase
Hour 18 of GFS follows the same trends the other models have been following, several mb stronger when it hits the water. Might be slightly west but it's probably just noise
Worth noting that while RGEM is more Eastward it has a far more pronounced northern turn just like the NAM, and by hour 50 it's in a similar position to the 12z. Maybe this is a trend?
Yup, at hour 26 you can clearly see a difference in the northern stream. However the central vorticity is several dozen miles to the east so the stream might have a tougher time capturing the low.
Only 16 hours out but the NAM 12z been following the same trends as most models in the early stages, several mb deeper and slightly farther to the east