Ian

Yeah may be worth some more examination. I did this a while back too.. obv doesn't include this Dec.

Here's NYC:

This month yo

What's the most anomalous single day departure on record for the airports? We're looking at a +30 or so for xmas eve?

I think I have Jan 1950 as the most anomalously positive month on record at DCA. +12.0 from the current norms. This could be a solid #2.

Today's 12z plug in for DC:

Euro: 51.9

GFS: 51.0

+11 to +12 month? lol. 

Also on track to finish in top 10 warmest years at DC.. tho not sure how we handle the sensor question on that one. 

The highest minimum for any day in Dec at DCA is 59° on 12/5/1973.  That record is in big trouble.

Was about to say NWS forecast is 63 now Christmas Eve morning. GFS/Euro suggest it's above that thru midnight. Even possible we get it two days in a row if Euro is right. 

WDOR???  If you're asking whether DCA will bring the record for the warmest December in DC history, I would say it's about 95% certain, and about 75% that it will break the record for the warmest winter month in DC history. 

Yeah I think it's pretty much a lock though I haven't run 'cold' numbers to see what we'd need to miss it.

Jebus look at these MOS numbers for Thurs. 38 degrees above normal at BWI.

Looks like it... low was just before midnight

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDCA/2013/12/22/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA&theprefset=SHOWMETAR&theprefvalue=1

New GFS MEX has 61/76 at DCA Thurs heh. 30+ across the board for the area basically.

There is input from forecasters.  Also of note, that would not be a BWI record, which is an astonishing 62 from 12/22/2013

Well I know there's input meant more like I figured no one was specifically thinking let's forecast a Dec record... but maybe. That's kind of ballsy if so from this range esp given the station didn't perform too admirably last go. But models do have a fairly high dew point environment most of the day. IAD also has a 62 record from that day... DCA must have gotten river winded.

I think these are all just gridded so I doubt someone necessarily was like hey let's forecast a December record for min temps but it's there for Thurs now.  Guess it could come down to midnight that night too though.

Per 12z GFS 12/19 plug in DC finishes 49.6 or 4 degrees above prior Dec record.

el bumpo

I just did the same thing with AccuWeather's DC projections and got 50.9 degrees. That would not only shatter the December record of 45.6 degrees set in 1889 and tied in 1984, but also the all-time winter monthly record of 48.0 degrees set in January 1950.

For fun I plugged in GFS numbers + climo on the 31st ... ~48 for DC. Would beat Dec record by about 2.4 degrees. 

Another record high for BWI. Dulles just shy. 70 at both spots for 1p.

Last nights gFS MOS had 3 days 68+ for DC in a row. Haven't seen that so late before during modern records if it happens.

44.4 or greater for a top 10 Dec in DC. 

Might put up some +15-20s this stretch if something doesn't bust it.

DC should still get #6 warmest.. glanced wrong before and thought #7.

DC should crack top 10 warmest Nov without problem. Looks like it should be #7 if things go half to plan.

The persistence of the heat is starting to become interesting (well, warmest May was interesting)... not sure how long it can sustain but it's done a good job since May at least. We were due to kick the blue bubble too. Given ensembles seems we should be in running with the high spots for 90+ in DC at the end of June. Keep that rolling into July and even a cool Aug doesn't do a ton except keep you out of 2010 territory. 

DC tied for 3rd on 90-degree day count as of today with 12. 2010 also had 12.. 1991 lead with 16.

Could be a good stretch up ahead with a few days off maybe. Gfs seems to like more than euro but euro is close. Been waiting for that 1995 redux after we leave.

I'm mixed on the pattern. The jet channel stays more or less across the plains... Just quite weak on some runs. I dunno.. Seems like there should be little impulses riding along it at the least. We'll see I suppose. We're coming to visit you Brett if down days so hope for storms. ;p