Ian

Gonna need a pretty deep eastern trough to have any appreciable affect on the Plains this time of year.

As long as it doesn't set up over the lakes or similar that far west it would probably not be the hugest issue but it wouldn't be the best either. Haven't quite gotten there yet anyway.. Maybe it won't happen.

Long range more muddled than it's looked for sure. Right on time for the trip! Doesn't seem to go worse than zonal which is likely to have some little waves embedded though I'm sure we are trending toward a NE trough... lol.

One thing I've noticed too, is that in the long range, particularly >15 days out, the ensembles have consistently "changed" the pattern too quick. First we were supposed to get into ridging in the East in April. Eventually it did happen, but it kept getting pushed back. Now we're been seeing this "death ridge" keep getting pushed back further and further. Question is, when does the pattern give away to climo? We won't see these deep troughs in the West last forever.

 

It looks like most, if not all of the rest of May holds potential with the overall, larger-scale pattern.

I think that's rather typical. Know at least in winter it seems to always take a week or two longer than expected to get a pattern change. Some is the natural smoothing of ensembles at range probably too... as you close in it becomes more "interesting." I'm certainly no long-range guy -- usually lean heavily on persistence. Add that to the look of the ensembles and it's a pretty safe bet it'll be more active than not for probably most of May and seemingly beyond for now.  Even the looks that are quieter after keep fairly persistent SW flow over the Plains. A lot of Nino years have decent Junes.. or at least a bigger event or two. The big NE Pac ridge and the wave disruption from the typhoons are something of wild cards I suppose.. but most other things still seem positive to keep it active it not "perfect." I still tend to think most chasers will be pretty happy with the season once it's over.

Still no major sign of it ending. Deeper into the ensembles show less in the way of big trough activity but fairly normal heights across the SW into the Plains. Gotta think one will get it done high end. 

Models seem to be moving the next weekend trough forward. Meh. Worried about the period right after as some hints of jet being pinched. Now I remember why I mock the long range model watchers in winter.

Definitely better than the great lakes vortex that has been around in recent Mays. 

Euro weeklies look decent thru week 4. Signal decreases with time but that's typical. Does keep a stronger signal for high heights E/NE US throughout.

I actually disagree a bit here just on initial signal, especially from the 12z GFS/Euro. This looks to spread stronger flow over most of the warm sector and has a stronger low level response earlier than the most recent system.

Yeah, maybe true. I don't usually dig too deep at this range. I liked the trough consolidation/ progression a bit better from here last go personally.. but it's a solid setup from range. 

It's another solid signal either way. Probably doesn't hurt to be a little cautious given what we just saw... But on the same note that was a heck of an active several days. This one seems a little less impressive just trough wise so far but further north and had some other things in its favor maybe.

Am increasingly wondering what this parade of re-curving typhoons might do. 

 

edit: though HM says that's dumb on Twitter. 

This might be Bastardis 45 days of mayhem. Delayed but not denied.

This period showed itself fairly well from range. I actually expected a high risk day about when we'll get one looking at the progression. If nothing else it seems we should want to keep a tendency for EC ridging which goes a long way. Add in nino and the rest.. Even some hints the NE pac ridge dies off and allows some pure northern stream stuff in. I dunno how long it will last or how persistent but I'm bullish on the time ahead.

I'm still worried because I always do and I wish we were there now.. but.. the signs seem good to keep on rolling I think. I wonder if this will end up a hyperactive period overall. We're due?

Definitely not a slam dunk but if anything prob usually best to lean slower on the trough push than shown at range.

I'll be out again when you guys are out now as I'm also assisting Walker Ashley on CoD's trip 3 as well.  

I feel better already. Record stretch of wedges ahead.

As long as we have troughing near CA you certainly have a shot. Weeklies look like they want to continue that, although the signal weakens week4..but looks pretty good.

Yeah saw them. Similar pattern. Imagine it will more or less continue until choked by ridging. Usually say something doesn't last more than 2 or 3 weeks but we have liked locked in patterns in recent years. Going late'ish you know you're at higher odds of missing the biggest day but there should in theory be less downtime. We'll see.. Know a lot of folks with shiftability are putting gears in motion. Can't say I blame them. Tough being a non Plains chaser hah.

When are you chasing?

May 22-June 7. Maybe can blame recency bias for shifting a week later compared to past two years. May sting a bit lol. We've done well in that period before, tho off the top of my head I want to say the first week of June hasn't been a big performer of late. But the Panhandle is returning to service so fingers crossed.

May 2013 was a weird pattern -- it has been a while since a potential classic setup comes along in peak season, which certainly seems possible given the looks.

 

Nino spring/summers seem to have a tendency to go bigger in middle or late season at least the few I've looked at. Think when you put that plus the signs of prior as far as KS/panhandle type targets.. outlook is quite positive for the season as a whole. I guess it'll shut down at some point but the main story has been an active pattern for quite a while.. severe ramped up in late Mar and never fully died off till recently, and even that die off was relatively tame for early season. Some of those April events would have been more memorable if there was just a little bit more surface moisture.

Ensembles look good thru the runs overall. April was really active considering... Even with issues a lot of those events performed about as much as possible. Should be good till at least May 24 or so.

Not sure I'd go to high end on anything right ahead but keep tossing and eventually something sticks, esp in May. Wed looks better than it has. Ensembles pretty enthusiastic about keeping troughiness going in the W/SW.

The CFS is changing run to run and even isn't in line with the GFS/Euro.

Victor Gensini and myself are heading up trip 2 with CoD and we leave 5/15 and we both think it looks quite good at this stage and are very optimistic.

Def ensemble support for mid month. CFS is a joke.. Sorta. More trough runs than ridge runs.

 

Overall I'd be rather positive at this pt. Think after 'break' we see another active stretch which rarely fully disappoints this time of year. What April was lacking should be more available, plus April made do with a fairly unsupportive CONUS pattern overall.

CFS has been nice looking final third of May lately which is good for us except it probably will verify as a Great Lakes low. Also, CFS.. lol.

I should probably stop complaining about winter

That was your stat heads up initially.. just verified myself. 

 

Due for some fail now. 

Dulles up to 88.8" now for last two winters. Most for back-to-back winters there. Of course 09-10 and 10-11 are 2nd because 09-10 was almost as big on its own.

Dulles has now seen two of its top three March snowstorms the past two years. 11.1" 16th-17th in 2014 and 9.5" Mar 5 this year (second greatest March daily total there).