Ian

Op models still waffling a bit but seems an extended period of SW/W flow is possible based on ensembles. Looks like a high CAPE regime tries to get established next week. Today's 12z definitely show some bigger potential intermixed too.

Op GFS has the next trough too now. Of course that'll prob change at 6z.

 

Gut says the pac jet keeps on coming but it has been a bit bouncier overall lately.. guess we'll see.

Ensembles have been waving back and forth lately.. Not as steady with a good look as they were when May was starting at least. Should sort of expect shear to generally relax I suppose anyway but the last day or so of runs have been a little worrisome after this coming weekend. That said 20-30kts shear in a fairly zonal flow should have some little ripples I think. Euro also has another trough hitting the west coast around day 10 last two runs.

The weeklies on wxbell come out Mon and Thurs for the record. Good luck with your chase though!

ahh must be late? Know they hit SV in the afternoon or early evening but usually don't see them on wxbell that quick. At least the daily stamps of it.

Yeah, I think things still look more favorable than not. If I could go back and redo I'd probably not have shifted into June and done the usual last two weeks of May but not sure there will be a huge difference in the end. This coming week overall looks fairly favorable, main limiter may be how much moisture can get north following the weekend event. 

 

Dailies on the Euro weeklies that came out this morning on wxbell look overall good.. higher heights everywhere going forward eventually but no shutdown look or anything. 

 

Looks like we may leave a day early -- next Thur v next Fri -- to make sure we catch the next weekend trough in full assuming it happens... in case there's a break after. We've been spoiled in recent years having almost no down time.

I understand the worry, you don't want to have to spend money going all the way out there to see nothing. However, we both know you always see stuff out there, the outcome is always the same year to year, it is just the difference is in the details.

Yeah that's true. After a bunch of maybenadoes last year I have somewhat high standards for success this go. Waiting is the worst.

I wouldn't worry about an op run especially at a 15 day range...

Yeah.. I lose all rationality before chase trips. I'd argue I should be banned if I was a n00b and someone else.

Euro weeklies pretty much keep the same look going. Guess I'll toss any bad op runs in favor. 18z gfs has a cold front to the gulf late mo lol.

Might want to mention that there is a very nice W TX/E NM setup showing up next week (5/19) on the 12z GFS.

Kinda have liked that little trough. Not a huge area of coverage but could be a good day for sure. 

Gonna need a pretty deep eastern trough to have any appreciable affect on the Plains this time of year.

As long as it doesn't set up over the lakes or similar that far west it would probably not be the hugest issue but it wouldn't be the best either. Haven't quite gotten there yet anyway.. Maybe it won't happen.

Long range more muddled than it's looked for sure. Right on time for the trip! Doesn't seem to go worse than zonal which is likely to have some little waves embedded though I'm sure we are trending toward a NE trough... lol.

I didn't even look. Gooooo May!

Nice tor for a lull day https://twitter.com/jwhittaltwn/status/598633381690089473

One thing I've noticed too, is that in the long range, particularly >15 days out, the ensembles have consistently "changed" the pattern too quick. First we were supposed to get into ridging in the East in April. Eventually it did happen, but it kept getting pushed back. Now we're been seeing this "death ridge" keep getting pushed back further and further. Question is, when does the pattern give away to climo? We won't see these deep troughs in the West last forever.

 

It looks like most, if not all of the rest of May holds potential with the overall, larger-scale pattern.

I think that's rather typical. Know at least in winter it seems to always take a week or two longer than expected to get a pattern change. Some is the natural smoothing of ensembles at range probably too... as you close in it becomes more "interesting." I'm certainly no long-range guy -- usually lean heavily on persistence. Add that to the look of the ensembles and it's a pretty safe bet it'll be more active than not for probably most of May and seemingly beyond for now.  Even the looks that are quieter after keep fairly persistent SW flow over the Plains. A lot of Nino years have decent Junes.. or at least a bigger event or two. The big NE Pac ridge and the wave disruption from the typhoons are something of wild cards I suppose.. but most other things still seem positive to keep it active it not "perfect." I still tend to think most chasers will be pretty happy with the season once it's over.

Still no major sign of it ending. Deeper into the ensembles show less in the way of big trough activity but fairly normal heights across the SW into the Plains. Gotta think one will get it done high end. 

Models seem to be moving the next weekend trough forward. Meh. Worried about the period right after as some hints of jet being pinched. Now I remember why I mock the long range model watchers in winter.

Definitely better than the great lakes vortex that has been around in recent Mays. 

Euro weeklies look decent thru week 4. Signal decreases with time but that's typical. Does keep a stronger signal for high heights E/NE US throughout.

I actually disagree a bit here just on initial signal, especially from the 12z GFS/Euro. This looks to spread stronger flow over most of the warm sector and has a stronger low level response earlier than the most recent system.

Yeah, maybe true. I don't usually dig too deep at this range. I liked the trough consolidation/ progression a bit better from here last go personally.. but it's a solid setup from range. 

It's another solid signal either way. Probably doesn't hurt to be a little cautious given what we just saw... But on the same note that was a heck of an active several days. This one seems a little less impressive just trough wise so far but further north and had some other things in its favor maybe.

Am increasingly wondering what this parade of re-curving typhoons might do. 

 

edit: though HM says that's dumb on Twitter. 

This might be Bastardis 45 days of mayhem. Delayed but not denied.

This period showed itself fairly well from range. I actually expected a high risk day about when we'll get one looking at the progression. If nothing else it seems we should want to keep a tendency for EC ridging which goes a long way. Add in nino and the rest.. Even some hints the NE pac ridge dies off and allows some pure northern stream stuff in. I dunno how long it will last or how persistent but I'm bullish on the time ahead.

I'm still worried because I always do and I wish we were there now.. but.. the signs seem good to keep on rolling I think. I wonder if this will end up a hyperactive period overall. We're due?

Definitely not a slam dunk but if anything prob usually best to lean slower on the trough push than shown at range.