Ian

I'll be out again when you guys are out now as I'm also assisting Walker Ashley on CoD's trip 3 as well.  

I feel better already. Record stretch of wedges ahead.

As long as we have troughing near CA you certainly have a shot. Weeklies look like they want to continue that, although the signal weakens week4..but looks pretty good.

Yeah saw them. Similar pattern. Imagine it will more or less continue until choked by ridging. Usually say something doesn't last more than 2 or 3 weeks but we have liked locked in patterns in recent years. Going late'ish you know you're at higher odds of missing the biggest day but there should in theory be less downtime. We'll see.. Know a lot of folks with shiftability are putting gears in motion. Can't say I blame them. Tough being a non Plains chaser hah.

When are you chasing?

May 22-June 7. Maybe can blame recency bias for shifting a week later compared to past two years. May sting a bit lol. We've done well in that period before, tho off the top of my head I want to say the first week of June hasn't been a big performer of late. But the Panhandle is returning to service so fingers crossed.

May 2013 was a weird pattern -- it has been a while since a potential classic setup comes along in peak season, which certainly seems possible given the looks.

 

Nino spring/summers seem to have a tendency to go bigger in middle or late season at least the few I've looked at. Think when you put that plus the signs of prior as far as KS/panhandle type targets.. outlook is quite positive for the season as a whole. I guess it'll shut down at some point but the main story has been an active pattern for quite a while.. severe ramped up in late Mar and never fully died off till recently, and even that die off was relatively tame for early season. Some of those April events would have been more memorable if there was just a little bit more surface moisture.

Ensembles look good thru the runs overall. April was really active considering... Even with issues a lot of those events performed about as much as possible. Should be good till at least May 24 or so.

Not sure I'd go to high end on anything right ahead but keep tossing and eventually something sticks, esp in May. Wed looks better than it has. Ensembles pretty enthusiastic about keeping troughiness going in the W/SW.

The CFS is changing run to run and even isn't in line with the GFS/Euro.

Victor Gensini and myself are heading up trip 2 with CoD and we leave 5/15 and we both think it looks quite good at this stage and are very optimistic.

Def ensemble support for mid month. CFS is a joke.. Sorta. More trough runs than ridge runs.

 

Overall I'd be rather positive at this pt. Think after 'break' we see another active stretch which rarely fully disappoints this time of year. What April was lacking should be more available, plus April made do with a fairly unsupportive CONUS pattern overall.

CFS has been nice looking final third of May lately which is good for us except it probably will verify as a Great Lakes low. Also, CFS.. lol.

I should probably stop complaining about winter

That was your stat heads up initially.. just verified myself. 

 

Due for some fail now. 

Dulles up to 88.8" now for last two winters. Most for back-to-back winters there. Of course 09-10 and 10-11 are 2nd because 09-10 was almost as big on its own.

Dulles has now seen two of its top three March snowstorms the past two years. 11.1" 16th-17th in 2014 and 9.5" Mar 5 this year (second greatest March daily total there). 

I think BWI will finish either 2nd or 3rd coldest February. That will also be a top 10 coldest month overall.

 

Rodney or MN (or anyone), how does it look for DCA and IAD rankings? I don't keep spreadsheets of those.

BWI should get 2nd as 1979 finished a bit mild. Dulles is close but seems it'll miss 1979 by a smidge for number 2? DC is like top 15. 

7 day avg of 19 ending yesterday was the coldest week for DC since Jan 1994, which bottomed at 13.8.

DCA 20/10 today beats yesterday's coldest Feb day since 1996 avg.

Plop these in here. Looks like final numbers. Already down to 13 at DCA.. today may play too I guess.  Euro/GFS hinting subzero late week.. with snow it might be believable even into DC?

 

 

Prelim this looks like the coldest Feb day at DCA since 1996.

 

Also the coldest since 1979 Feb 15 and beyond.. 6th coldest this late at DCA.

Or maybe getting 2-3 HECS that year means we wait twice as long as usual for the next one

I dunno. It seems we are in the golden age of HECS right now. Persistence until none for a while.

I'm convinced this storm didn't happen

I've been looking thru pics from then and the next and it doesn't seem real.

But it probably could have been better with a little colder temps. Next time.

It does hurt a little more every year later. But the HECS cycle should be nearing completion.. unless we go back into the old HECS cycle then see ya in 20 years.

I considered, but then backed off.  Ian created it...whether he believes it or not, I respect him a huge amount, so it stands.

This is a weather board yo.

Dec tied for the warmest monthly low on record at DCA/DC old. Let's hope this is not a useful metric as the last two rolled forward are no bueno.

 

Counting today, 5 of 6 days to start September were 90+ at DC. Hasn't happened since 1980 when all 6 days reached that mark.

 

We may not torch as often anymore but we still torch well.

Two recent climate pieces for CWG. The DC one isn't terribly notable to date other than last few yrs.

 

Dulles Airport just recorded its longest “heart of summer” cool streak on record
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/08/18/dulles-airport-just-recorded-its-longest-heart-of-summer-cool-streak-on-record/

 

Summer 2014 in D.C.: 90-degree days running 40 percent below normal
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/08/15/summer-2014-in-d-c-90-degree-days-running-40-percent-below-normal/

 

If DCA makes it to freezing tonight it will be the latest since Apr 21 in 1956. 

Impressive. A really interesting March.

NWS just posted that it's close and we need to get past the low from this morning but numbers from the F6 say it's there. Maybe the F6 is wrong.

 

 

Definitely an impressive month.  I wish IAD had a longer record ... or DCA wasn't a heat island of doom. IAD outpaced DCA with records like a million to one this winter. 

Really interesting. 

 

Dulles appears to have finished with the coldest March on record (since 1963) with 37.4. Edged out 1984 by 0.1 by my calcs.