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Holston_River_Rambler

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Posts posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Anyone have any thoughts on why the NAM is doing this? I guess I'm asking what process does it see that shoots the 850 winds and WAA so far north? Superficially (i.e me remembering all the runs I've looked at in the past few hours) nothing seems even close to it. 

    Is it a convection issue? Is it how its handling a shortwave? I'm not saying its wrong, but I'd like to know what it is seeing. 

    • Like 1
  2. 4 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

    Icing would be pretty devastating with ground temps like there are currently. 
     

    ice would accumulate even at air temp of 33-34 because the ground is mid 20s

    I liked <sarcasm> this sounding from the NAM:

    26RRtjJ.png

    31 degrees, best guess: Rain 

    sounding from this frame in central TN

    noqqyV8.png

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  3. One thing I have noticed (now that I can look earlier than thought at the SREF thanks to fountain) is that he SREF cores seem to have been overestimating ZR over AR and TX:

    5 run trend:

    ARW core

    giphy.gif

    NMB core:

    giphy.gif

     

    They are also too far north with the mixing line:

    giphy.gif

     

    giphy.gif

     

     

    • Like 2
  4. Local news (WBIR and WATE haven't had a chance to see WVLT yet) this AM seem to be leaning into the more snow than not, but I think they have the problem of the MRX graphics totals cut in southern and eastern areas of east TN. Also a lot of times the in house models they show on TV are Hi res CAMs that show some of the mixing potential. 

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