In many ways, this is just a repeat of the pattern we've seen repeatedly since Fall. A beefy Atlantic ridge with greatest + height anomalies over Newfoundland and - anomalies over the OH/TN Valleys and Appalachians. This helps promote deep southerly flow that has produced so many heavy precip events.
While the end result this weekend does come down to how energy phases into the developing trough, I think assuming the surface low passes within 50 miles of NYC is a good bet at this point. No model in this pattern was able to capture the small-scale nuances of the low level wind field, with colder air generally holding in place longer than modeled region-wide. Now we're just adding climatology, cold water and the development of widespread frigid air into the mix. The ECMWF had a warm/NW bias with many of these coastal lows, while the GFS and its family were often too cold/SE. Whatever warm sector makes it in will likely be brief and after the heaviest precip has passed through, so this is still a wintry, albeit less snowy setup.