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purduewx80

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Everything posted by purduewx80

  1. purduewx80
    lol no kidding
  2. purduewx80
    NHC still going with a 30% chance of subtropical development. Looks like a warm seclusion on a lot of the guidance. Name possible? yes. Likely? no.
  3. purduewx80
    The upper low offshore phases w/ the tail end of the trof approaching us now; whole thing is cut off and the warm sector gets wrapped around its north side. So it does make some sense with the big block (of sorts) in eastern Canada. NHC has a 30% chance for subtropical development w/ this system on the 5-day outlook.
  4. purduewx80
    12Z Euro is an absolute drencher Tues night - Friday, with winds over 50 MPH for much of LI Thu-Fri. This run is showing 2-4" for the city and 7-10"+ for parts of SE New England.
  5. purduewx80
    95 to 57 and +DZ is definitely one of the weirder 24h weather sequences I've personally witnessed. Check out the supercells in PA right now.
  6. purduewx80
    Might actually see temps jump up to near 70 for a good chunk of LI late tomorrow evening or around midnight, depending on the track of the redeveloping low. Could be some cheap overnight highs for both Thu and Fri as a result.
  7. purduewx80
    Mon-Tues almost looking like a PRE event on the 12Z ECMWF. It develops that mess south of Bermuda into some sort of low that feeds into the slowly-passing front. Certainly looks like wetter times are ahead.
  8. purduewx80
    https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=KDCA&num=72&banner=NONE&hfmetars=1 just change the 4-letter identifier for other sites
  9. purduewx80
    LGA has tied their Oct all-time high of 93 so far, JFK up to 92 for a new October record. Feels like July to me.
  10. purduewx80
  11. purduewx80
    97 showing up on the latest 5 min observation - good enough for a new October high temp record. 96 ties the previous.
  12. purduewx80
    EWR up to 93F now, tying their previous all-time October record. NYC and LGA at 89 now, 88 for JFK at 1pm.
  13. purduewx80
    SPC upgraded to a marginal risk in the area this afternoon. Coverage may be isolated, but with the strong heating and ample moisture along the front, should be a few gusty storms around early this evening.
  14. purduewx80
    right? ring-of-fire pattern out in the midwest is also more typical of july. high clouds probably won't be much of an inhibitor today. short-term guidance brings temps of 90-93 to the entire city.
  15. purduewx80
    I guess the only thing stopping it would be debris cirrus from whatever complex survives out of the Midwest/Lakes tonight.
  16. purduewx80
    October all-time records: JFK: 90 on 10/8/2007 LGA and EWR: 93 on 10/5/1941 NYC: 94 on 10/5/1941 ISP: 88 on 10/8/2007
  17. purduewx80
    agreed. warm spots may end up being JFK, adjacent parts of the south shore and the jersey shore. think we'll have some spotty thunderstorms with the late afternoon front, too.
  18. purduewx80
    and cleveland, and louisville, and indy, and lexington, and nashville, and birmingham...
  19. purduewx80
    if we don't take care of the overpopulation problem, the planet sure will.
  20. purduewx80
    A little surprised the Gulf disturbance doesn't have higher probs. At the least this is going to be a flooding concern in the Houston area as the developing low gets trapped under the ridge for 2-3 days.
  21. purduewx80
    slower dorian + deeper lakes s/w. definitely worth watching next few runs.
  22. purduewx80
    legit threat seeing what's out west and knowing that a lot of folks will be bbq'ing or at the beach today.
  23. purduewx80
    getting good pressure falls near and north of the warm front now, which is allowing the bubble high over chicagoland to to weaken and shift northeast over the lake. there is also subsidence behind the earlier convection, which will be replaced w/ lift and fairly widespread convection later in the evening as the LLJ increases. severe weather is possible but i'd think some flash flooding is probably the bigger threat across MO, IA, IL and maybe southern WI overnight.
  24. purduewx80
    Totally agree; 12Z 3km NAM may have the best idea, but nothing has really captured the warm sector staying as far S as it is now. That warm front will be hard to budge w/ the new sfc-based severe storms riding it.
  25. purduewx80
    Deep layered southerly flow out of the tropics should easily produce mid-60s+ dew points, similar to Sunday PM. The ECMWF shows a peak of 69F at DCA Friday afternoon.
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