Red1976Red

And not just flurries for the foothills, maybe something will show soon or occur in the north-west piedmont too.

Going to make tuna helper tonight. I will say this, usually clipper/cold spillage of snow showers doesn’t make it over the mountains when it’s been dry. But now we are seeing up to 3” of rain (more in upslope areas according to mtn thread) just before the cold hits. I wouldn’t rule out something this weekend into next week just yet.

At least 5 of the stores were communities that had natural disasters recently: 2 in Puerto Rico, 2 in Houston, 1 in Lumberton, NC. Just at a glance.

I still got hemorrhoids just saying in case anyone wondering

Not buying the EURO it will change big time between now and then. For better or worse. But right now too much in front of it with rain systems to move in and out...wait for the cold to arrive and see the solutions change early next week. May happen with 0z Sunday.

I don't think anyone forecasted a record breaking cold wave, several rare tornadoes in November, the two major winter events in the S/E so far, or how much rain we are about to see in January. Including JB, government agencies, none are doing a superior job. The only thing I recall is above normal and dry all winter.

Around the 20th screams overrunning to me, a little ice as the cold air lessens. Bares watching the qpf trends.

The birds outside in the woods pick me up like I’m Jeepers Creepers. They always give off my position and I think that’s why I never found big foot that one year on the southern slopes of Stone Mountain. Has anyone here seen the new movie? It’s terrible. Could have used more bird action and they never played the theme song?!

They have been pissed with the frozen ground. Yesterday I saw them in the thousands headed west. Not enough people fed them or even cared during the cold wave. But now things are changing, from drought to 2 soaking rain events this week. Watch for flooding in the west and isolated severe east of the mountains as punishment. Looks a little rocky in the extended, some dabs of cold and dry/warm. It’s so early in the winter so I bet if people had a heart and fed the birds we will score again. For the past several winters, March has been our go to month in western NC. Lots to hammer out, but this winter will already at least be a B+ in my book. Up to 6” of snow, mega cold, etc. I did not come back as Wilkes because I rejoined at a time when my personality was Ian Gallagher. I was fortunate to be hit head on by EF1 tornado in November, which led me to a new internet service, and a new chance to log back on under a new network. The home is okay, but the birds lost quiet a few trees. I was outside trying to get into a basement when the blue power flashes occurred down the street. The birds gave me ample warning time on a otherwise dreary cool day. I would have never thought a tornado would have occurred in those conditions. I missed getting the actual tornado on my phone as I gave up when trees and power lines started to come down too close for comfort. It sounded like the train that goes by Roaring River in the eastern part of the county was on top of me.

Look we just experienced the worst cold wave duration on record for many places so you need to give time for temperatures to recorporate or they are never going to be happy.

I love the GFS look. Got the cold to work with and I do NOT want to see any snow storm for 3-5 days in advance just for it to disappear. The swing and misses are perfect right now at this range.

GFS looks unusually wet for the southern Apps. 2-5" this month would blow some of these warm and dry winter forecasts out of the water. Forecast Discussion SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2018 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of the eastern half of the U.S. Thursday and Thursday night, including across parts of the lower and mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and parts of the East Coast and central Appalachians area.

I am interested in the period later this week for some low top rotating storms slamming into mountains. Not heard much about severe chances? Maybe snow one week after? I bet a lot will be saying just that after a line of potentially severe storms hits Georgia, Tennessee and possibly the Carolinas after dark if they survive.

It's all about timing. I don't look for torch all winter or thaws. I look for chances and we certainly have that with some cold air to work with at times. Seriously just come out of the coldest longest duration cold wave like ever in recent memory and so many mets are focused on torch torch torch. Even after 2 major snow storms bringing some cities will above climo if they even have an average snow.

I would like to see some much warmer temps in the 60s, that usually bodes well for a major storm potential in the winter.

I'm just happy the pattern looks active with potential. Whoever said Charlotte won't see 1" of snow by....may be eating their hat on this one.

This has good potential, better than cold and dry. May help areas that have not seen a lot of snow this winter. Something to watch this week instead of the thaw!

Oklahoma and Arkansas getting wrecked by hour 210

Significant snow in Dallas this run, parts of Louisiana

Texas is looking pretty.

I doubt the models are handling the dry cold air in place well this far out. Probably too fast in warming temps and off on the evaporative cooling. I have seen this many times and climo/micro climates can really be hammered. There is some uncertainty on the QPF tho.

It doesn’t take much ice for a winter weather advisory. 0z EURO would have Atlanta, Georgia area in the mix before going to rain.

32 degree events don’t work out for ice because we often see 60-70 degree temps leading up the event. I don’t quite remember the last time we saw this kind of potential on the tail end of a cold wave. I think surface impacts would be high.

Snow wise, EURO tries to bring down a few inches in the mountains if the onset conditions are supportive, which may largely depend on a faster start time. It shows north-east Georgia to areas south-west of Asheville at play for 2”+. Higher peaks could really get raked if the stars allign. Snow Shoe, West Virginia may be a good place to visit if the past 3 EURO runs are even close to being right. Of course, snow cover could help keep the temps supportive of freezing rain vs rain during the day too. I really over analyzed the euro tonight, don’t take it as a forecast!

0z EURO is icy for north Georgia, upstate SC, and south-west NC as it appears timing favors that area. Still a glaze north and west of Charlotte during the day time hours, particularly several foothill counties, where some areas dont go above freezing all day with 0.4” qpf or more. Many areas see cold rain 33-34 degrees in the mountains and piedmont. Eastern blue ridge appears to be the favored area for now. If timing sped up with the event, I would think more areas would be in play for icing. Winter Storm Warning criteria is certainly on the table for a few areas, but of course, expect changes this far out.