Albedoman

Lehigh Valley received only spotty showers. Still have not seen a decent thunderstorm this year in Macungie.  .64 in of rain overnight.  Enough precip to keep things green.  This upcoming pattern of somewhat dry but cooler weather is not good for June.  The gulf of Mexico has been shutoff for the past month for moisture and the creation of convectivity for daily t-storms. IT appears the daily stratus clouds/showers are in the picture again after this weekend.  Boring

what a joke today. The two  minute downpours on the half hour gave me an anemic .45 in of a piss poor pollen rinse.  Where the hell is all of the convective energy? Stratus cloud cover destroyed any potential today for the upteenth time this year. All I want  is a a good 30 minute ear busting thunderstorm but that seems like asking for a noreaster right now.  Here it almost June and I have  heard thunder less  than five times in the last two months. Well on to Wednesday- maybe another chance.  Its so dam hard to believe that these line of t storms cannot make it across the state  before dying out reaching eastern pa  in the past month. Alot of parade organizers  that cnaceled their parades are upset as most municiplaities got in their memorial  parades before it showered after lunch. 90% chance of severe weather  quickly dwindled to 30% after lunch. New forecast model should be no sunshine=no t storms. 

wow, I am getting real sick of the media blowing up 3-5 day forecasts with their BS scare tactics. The ignorant public is walking on egg shells. The media takes a 3-5 day forecast and sentionailzes the event in their newspapers.  Easton and Phillipsburg publically announced they were canceling their memeorial day parades 3 days in advance. If this was a winter storm maybe yes  that might be the case.  But a round of afternoon t- storms- give me a break. The media made this sound like it was hurricane hitting this area with torrential downpours ALL DAY.  MT Holly needs to make the media post disclaimers that their 3-5 day forecasts are just that-- a forecast- not gospel. I do not fault the NWS but I fault these idiots at the media for blowing this entire forecast out of the water and making the NWS look like idiots at the same time.  

My thoughts- the NWS should not comment anymore to the press about their forecasts until 48 hours preceeding the event and without a disclaimer. There are too many gullible politicians and ignorant people about weather forecasting and its science and a media who loves to sensationlize anything to sell ads with abolutley no risk. 

Right now. Great morning for a parade with no t-storms until late this afternoon. The is pretty unstable right now. With the excessive pollen in the air, the setup for severe weather is increasing by the hour. Tornado/severere t-storm watches by 2 pm would be a good bet. That is what the media should be concentrated on. 

these storms have died out every evening. Just a light rain shower. Have not had a decent t-storm in weeks.  Allentown and points north have seen some rains this past week but Berks, Montgomery and southern part of Lehigh County---- zilch. Just like last year. Hoping Monday pays off.

4 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

Windows 2000, XP and Windows 7 were their best and most stable OS IMO. Never used Windows 8 and Windows 10 and 11 are bloated and it takes an extra step in situations where Windows 7 could get in one step. Still run Windows 7 at home. Only use Windows 11 at work...

83F   

dumped windows 10. had enough of the constant window update problems, virus crap, and bogging down with new software updates.  Hate paying for windows software like word powerpoint etc. Went to linux mint back in 2015 and never looked back.  My 12 year old computer with 16 gigs of memory  hums like kitten. No viruses, runs quick as hell and use linux mint libre software for free. Updates on its own with nothing running in the background loading up to and and the updates are downloaded on my time, not windows. Major updates are free and  best of all no virus checkers. Linux is king.

the media can stick this forecasted inferno summer  where the sun doesn't shine -----  oops thats right here. Rinse repeat with drizzle again this weekend. This is just an incredible weather pattern we are stuck in. No storms  can fire up east of Columbus Ohio. stratus rain clouds that hang on forever. The amount of mold spores has to be off the charts in our area. I wish for a normal convective squall line to appear with a cold front but I do see that happening until June. What  really dislike is the gusty winds that have accompanied these stratus clouds like yesterday with 30 mph gusts and temps in the low 60's Its like fall weather

In my continuing review of after the fact NCEI temperature adjustments for Chester County PA I have reviewed the detailed monthly NCEI average temperatures for all 1,548 months since January 1895. For the first 1,271 months from January 1895 through November 2000. NCEI applied a post hoc chilling adjustment to the reported average temperatures for every single month for each and every year. So for all of those months the average reported temperatures as reported by the NWS Cooperative stations were chilled to an adjusted lower temperature. Since NCEI stopped these non-stop chilling adjustments starting in December 2000... they have now reversed gears and are now applying warming adjustments in 208 of the last 277 months or 75.1% of all months between December 2000 and December 2023.

Also of note is that in every single summer month between June and September since way back in June 2006 and continuing through last September 2023....for each of those last 72 consecutive summertime months they have warmed each and every month. Cooling the past and warming the more recent and current years....that will get us to the answer.

This averaging only goes to someones agenda for pushing  global warming. Time to throw a monkey wrench into this averaging crap-- Urban spawl and imperviousenss with the urban heat island effect. Urban sprawl has a much more significant effect on the urban weather environment. Until these great global warming idiots realize this temp averaging adjustments to prove their point means nada  they must consider  how the albedo effect too.  I can only imagine all of these solar panels installed in the past ten  years will  do from  these huge solar farms and residential homes. The avg temps will start to cool in the upcoming years. When man effects the solar radiation averaging now- basically the NCEI placed an algorithmn  to get the results they wish for which is not averaging- it is now considered playing with the numbers. 

Seattle weather returns with a vengence for the next two weeks. The only sunny day in the next seven days is Friday and that is not even all sunny.  I say screw the monthly average temps discusssion in this forum as its not worth even a discussion because it does not paint the entire picture of this May's weather. With a few days with near 90 highs really  does make up for the weeks of 50 degree highs and lower 40's lows.  One pathetic  t-storm is a joke too. Days on end of cloudy stratus clouds with drizzle/light rain is a landscapers dream for mowing lawns. All I can say if this nasty weather pattern keeps up, we may not see a high in the 90's for all of June. All I want  are 2-3 days of sunny days and temps in the low to mid 80's so I can spray my bug killer and clean the green algae off the deck. I guess that is asking for a miracle right now.

well, 45 degrees with moderate rain to srart the day.n What else is new.  My heater is on as the house temp cannot even stay at 70 degrees with these cloudy below 50 degree high miserable days.  I really hope tomorrow turns out to be sunny but I would expect nothing less than a sunny morning turning into a stratus cloud deck in the afternoon. All I want are 3-5 days of SW winds  and chances of t -storms. Guess I wil not see that chance until Memorial day at this juncture.  Dying el nino patterns are a real let down.

the high tomorrow barely reaching the 50's. That has to be the coldest high temp I've seen this late in May in a decade or more.  Have to turn on the heat maybe.  The extensive virga today was a no laughing matter. We finally have some rain now. I can breathe again.  Where in the hell are my t-storms?  A mid spring without t- storms is like  having ten snow virga events in a row. Fustrating

all I can say it is way too cold. Cloudy with 45 degree temps for mid April  during the day- BS. Give my heater a rest. No worry with pollen, the drizzle and cold temps keeping the windows shut for now.  I see no 75+ degree days until mid May and chance of killing frost or freeze next week. Not a Spring to remember for sure

I tried copying the camera shot from phone the first time. I deleted it and reloaded it. One hell of a graupel thundershower. Ground was white and the cars.. Whole house shook. This was about an hour and half ago in Macungie PA

It is pouring agan here in Lehigh county. I should 4 inches easily in the next few hours

the drought guy here  is drowning LMAO. 3.24 in of rain  in the last 24-36 hours. Little Lehigh is flooding , Roads closed and farms fields underwater. Farmers say it will at least 2 weeks before they can get in the fields to plant. Its time for a good long warm dry spell. Since December, we have had nearly a years  worth of precip (snow and rain) in Lehigh County already

My thoughts-- eerily similar setup  in this current weather pattern for continuing this wet spring and for an early tropical storm formation like Agnes in 72.  A wet spring followed by an early tropical storm would be devastating for our area. https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/06/19/hurricane-agnes-susquehanna-50years-storm/

1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

Drought guy will have a fit.

Appears (cold) rain starts around midnight...hopefully it rinses the pollen and  crap off the car.

41F/Cloudy

 

no way in hell will I have a fit. It will take three months of below 1 inch of rain before the groundwater level and stream levels  would even approach drought warning conditions. The local springs are up big time and the base flow of the Little Lehigh Creek  in my backyard is still at bank-full.   I expect flood warnings to be issued for the Trexlertown area  at 1.5 inches of rain as the ground is still saturated tomorrow.  I am more worried about more dead ash trees falling from the gusty winds as the soils are supersaturated.  I expect Spring Creek rd to be closed by tomorrow afternoon too from the flooding.  If a drought were to occur, drought warnings would not be issued until late August at the earliest.  July is usually are heaviest precip month too.  Weather world is in another world

another sunny day that has become cloudy.  Please make this stop. Its been doing this since last June and the smoke fires.

10 hours ago, canderson said:

Why didn’t you take a trip out there? It’s epic stuff! 

you could have saved a bunch a money and visited macungie  two weeks ago to see those rates LOL

what a dud- brief squall line of 45 mph winds. No t storms and heavy rain ended in three minutes. Too much hype. The rolling thunder this morning in the showers was the highlight of this event. 

woopee, first t -storm of the new year- in February to say the least. It was nice to wake up hearing rolling thunder with the windows open. I miss the humidity. This is the first time in the past 30+ years I can remember a t storm in Feb but  I may be wrong. More to come this afternoon.

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

The warm days, the cloudy days, and the abundant rains are all trademarks of a Nino fwiw. Kind of surprised how this winter played out here. What surprised me most is the lack of Southern snows along NC/SC a few times during a Nino. Didn't have that this year. I wonder if that feature has shifted N over the years to our region? We usually don't see the week-long stretches of winter but rather one big one in Feb or March. Interesting that Nova Scotia got an anomalous 5' + snowstorm a few weeks back. Hmm, maybe everything did shift N this year. Wonder if that's a sign of the times/change?

yes I agree with El nino pattern statement should be expected rains and warmth but not to that extreme that we all experienced. December had the most rain ever recorded in the LV  which rivaled good hurricane season rains and flooding was unbelievable.  I am also sure it was the cloudiest periods ever for the winter season. Somebody needs to find this out.  We went in 5-6 day mostly cloudy stretches for at least two months  with no 2-3 day consecutive sunny days That should have been a good tell how this winter was going too. 

well for macungie, I still rate it a C- even with the nice snowfall event on Saturday and the previous week.  The temps have been cold this week and for one week in January but what strikes me about this winter was the amount of warm temps and rainfall from late November into January of nearly 15 inches. Furthermore  the excessive cloudy days throughout the entire winter season did a number on my utility bill trying to keep the house warm.  This winter sucked except for the last week.  A couple of weeks of winter simply does make up for the flooding rains and cloudy days, especially at  Christmas time. 

32 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I’ll do a late progress report as it pertains to meteorological winter (DJF)

1. C-D ish on average. I think most generally expected a warmer start to winter and the potential for storms and cold to be later in the winter. I did not anticipate the warm December the CONUS ended up with at all, that probably should’ve been a hint. We have had opportunities and some of them have delivered but it has just not wanted to be cold for any longer stretches this winter. And we’ve had a couple bigger storms but we haven’t had pattern alignments conducive for phasing, and it’s been mostly either southern or northern stream waves… which limited opportunities for a KU type event. 

2. C+. The pattern itself has been overall more favorable than last year, especially with storm track. Most events have went under or tried to go under PA (transfer). We’ve only really had maybe a couple straight up cutters, and one of them ended up delivering my biggest snowfall of the season to date. There’s just been no cold air, there’s no persistent ridging in the PNA/EPO realm to help deliver any cold when it has actually been in Canada outside of the middle of Jan. 

3. B. I’ve personally had two winter storm warning verified events and 4 other advisory caliber ones at my home, which isn’t half bad to this point. A one off big hitter sometime in March (like a March 22, 2018 or better) would get me to a total I would consider to be in the average range here. Same could be said anywhere else in C-PA and the northern Mid-Atlantic. And of course there’s that stripe of eastern PA in the Lehigh Valley/Poconos that is already near or at average. Honestly, that we’ve achieved that considering how warm the winter has been temp wise in the northern half of the country is a small miracle. 

4. D. I’m big on pack retention, and this winter hasn’t been a good one for that. The middle 10days or so of Jan and getting to snowboard Blue Knob at 100% twice saves me from giving this criteria an F. 

5. F. There just hasn’t been any cold pattern that has stuck this winter. The one we did get in January was delayed. The Jan 6 and 9th storms came before it was actually cold, and the below normal stuff came mainly centered on about 5 days or so, where we scored a couple decent advisory level northern branch systems. The MJO’s two week+ meandering in Phase 7 after running thru 4-5-6 and then subsequent failure to run thru 8-1-2 despite what is likely an all time record reversal of the SOI from Jan to Feb probably has a part in what sunk this month overall for any kind of a truly cold pattern. 

6. F-. The hype in late Jan for what was being shown at the time in the weeklies/ long range ensembles was off the charts. Not necessarily in here, but some folks were all in on that 2010, 78, 58 type pattern. Reality ended up being meh but it’s been way worse in the snow dept, but the expectation of a big storm pattern and cold made this month a huge disappointment and later in the winter was where forecasts were being focused on for delivering the goods. 

If winter ended now I’d give it a C-, aided mainly by the snow we did get. But we got March, and I’m not writing anything off in that month yet.. esp second half of the month. 

nice report card synopsis I would change the grade for No 6 however from F- to withdrawn or incomplete. We must grade properly now.  By the way, maybe some of the courses were audited so a satisfactory or unsatisfactory maybe more appropriate.  I would say no. 6 falls in the category too.  LMAO 

11 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said:

Indeed, it was a good measurement. Unbelievable how localized the totals were. 

thanks for your confidence in me.  Last night  single digits back up the snow pack too.  I just wish everyone would have received the same amount.  Its not fair as I feel as I am the one that got served surf and turf while everyone else got mac and cheese.  

I warning many of those who think winter is dead based on the upcoming weather patterns. A dying el nino pattern usually brings a significant snowfall by mid to late March for our area. My 30+ years, I have observed this phenomenon.  The problem is that it will all melt right way because of the sun angle but I still think about it. The 60+ degrees in early March will be replaced by cold rainy April too. 

down to 9 degrees in the LV this morning. Snow pack has helped. Yesterday, I got down to 8 degrees

11 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Good, because I'm already down to 28.

Of course, it's still Monday so there's that.

I see the single digits are shown over the snowpack areas of the LV. Pretty accurate. Already 20 degrees

Got down to 9 degrees this morning under the snow pack. 14 degrees right now.