SnowGolfBro

Just now, nj2va said:

Didn’t high risk post earlier this week that the GFS OP and ensembles are basically run off two different parameters?  GFS OP was upgraded but GEFS wasn’t?  

That was definitely discussed. But even so, we still weight the ensembles more heavily until about 72 hours out from most storms. At least I’m riding that theory for another 24 hours lol.

24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t thunk 18z eps was west. It just was deeper due to a few more amped members and less outliers.  So there was the illusion of a west shift by adding some more isobars and colors within the broader low position of 12z. The axis of the snow probabilities and means didn’t change at all and looking at the individual low plots they’re clustered about the same as 12z.  Additionally there are more misses to the southeast, at least for the northwestern part of this sub, then I expected. 

 

32, everybody eats

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Any interest in a short zoom tonight as Gfs comes in? 

Definitely. Can you send me a link? Thanks!

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Guys come on, its the long range NAM. Might as well use woolly caterpillars to predict the snow. 

Something about a blind squirrel and a nut!

1 minute ago, DCAlexandria said:

84 hour Nam with 1007 low over Mobile, AL

What could go wrong? 

Just now, Ji said:

but the feb 2014 thump was like 13 inches lol

I was in Reston for that storm. We got like 15 inches. 

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

There's the money track. Give me that all day.

I still think that’s where we are headed. Give the friendly models a chance to catch on to it.

In 96 i remember calling the weather hotline everyday starting 4 days before the storm (I was 9 lol). But day 4 was 1-3 inches. Day 3 was 3-6 inches. Day 2 was 6-12 inches. Day 1 was 18-24 lol. So here is hoping this one breaks that way! I might call that hotline right now

We are in the game for Sunday. That’s all i can really take from today. If the models were showing a perfect hit I’d be just as concerned about missing this one. 

5 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Icon is a southern slider.  Nice storm for NC.  

Well it was a fun couple hours. 

Mentioned earlier, but we are going into the freezer starting Friday evening. If we do get snow Sunday it should stick from the first flake. Which is always nice . January ‘16 was that way if i remember correctly

1 minute ago, Deer Whisperer said:

Man there are a lot of beautiful panels in there

26 looks like a typical coastal monster. Favored areas get hit hardest. Mixing lower totals S and E. I’ll take it and run

7 minutes ago, mappy said:

why? just keep your expectations in check and you'll be fine.

Good advice. Work is kicking my ass and interfering with my favorite hobby lol. But yes, I don’t get too excited until we get into the 48-72 hour range. If this looks good on Thursday all bets are off on containing my excitement. Hope you are having a great start to the New Year!

It’s gonna be a long week. 

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

Well we need to stop the westward trend that has been happening since the 18Z yesterday and reverse it a little.

GEFS will be very interesting me thinks

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

DT honking big time for the GFS solution. Which is a change of pace.

The GFS did pretty well with the last two systems. Not saying this is the final solution by any means. But getting harder to just dismiss the GFS 

10 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

No love from the Canadians tonight.  
 

Just fill in that white slot with some teal crayon and we are good!

So somewhere between 0 and 42 inches of snow in the next 7 days layered with Covid vaccine fighting is what i have gathered from the last couple pages of comments. Seems about right lol. 

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

3 weeks of a great pattern and your headline is “pattern relaxes” 4 weeks from now!  You’re becoming too predictable 

In some of our crap winters we look weeks out for a pattern change that’s always “3-4 weeks” away. Then bam! The pattern changes and it’s April lol.  Maybe we kick the reset until April this year! 

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Excellent eps run. I’d rather look at the whole window rather than a discreet event in a complicated flow at this range.  
 

7 day temps 

7 day mean qpf 

That looks pretty good to me.  Pattern continues after this as well. 

Nice. Cold and wet in January usually equals snow around here, all caveats about timing and luck aside. 

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

When was the hope about to die?

You see, if the Op run shows crap the sky is falling, at least until the Ensembles show hope. Then we are snow town USA. At least until the next Op run. That is Standard Operating Procedure for most of us here lol.

2 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Dale City is 28 degrees right now with a pristine 10 degree dewpoint. Good for keeping that snowpack in great shape! Pile it all up, dig it and pile it on the north side of sunlight blockin' objects like an old car no one ever drives, the house, bushes, get it piled up! Gonna be doin' a LOT of diggin this winter!

My front yard in Montclair doesn’t get sun until about April 1 lol. We will be measuring the snow pack in feet Jebman!

2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Ripping in Montclair. Everything caved. Snow on snow

Pretty windy too

Ripping in Montclair. Everything caved. Snow on snow

Legit SN in Montclair. Picking up as i type

Light snow in Montclair!