SnowGolfBro

car topper and best rates of the day in Montclair. Down to 33.5

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Thought about that. Hope you’re right

Yea I’d rather get down to 33-34 degrees with this slug and let the chips fall from there than start the same process at 40 degrees like we did a couple hours ago

White mulch in Montclair.  Already exceeding my expectations!

Radar seems to be blossoming a bit east of the mountains.  This is like wave 0.  I guess two disappointing waves wasn’t enough!

Snow in Montclair. Temp down to 36 from a high of 41

Snow tv commencing in Montclair.  Sticking to grill cover!

1 minute ago, wawarriors4 said:

Dew Point

As long as the dew is below freezing we can use the weenie handbook for dynamical cooling with heavy rates.  Probably not applicable with the current “storm”

Updating expectations to snow TV for wave 1 and flurries for wave 2.  He’ll of a hobby we have here boys and girls.

Somebody from Fredericksburg to PSU land will do well.  But at this point i think you could throw a dart in that range and have as good a chance as the models. I know where I’m aiming my dart. 

Well that Deescalated quickly!

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I'd call this the first wave. Pretty weak sauce.

How were temps? Seems like a hold for part 1 qpf.

4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Temps my friend.  We need temps below freezing.  Ideally 28-30.  It’s plagued us forever. Sunday was epic snow tv and was gone by 3pm.  

No doubt.  32-33 with the current sun angle and soil temps will be white rain.  

Just now, BristowWx said:

Not too far north.  Let’s pick a central location like western PWC.  Put that as ground zero and fan out from there.  

I like our spot for this one.  I like 6-10 for PWC.  

24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I don't expect anyone to listen but 50-75 mile shifts on globals run over run really doesn't mean much. The only "trend" I see has been detailed already with the "pac man" dry air bite out of the NE periphery of the shield. I (We) have seen that before. Feb 2014 & 15 had some similar "erosion" with a few events. Euro could be spot on but I'd wait another 24 hours before spiking sour lemons. If your yard is still under the "general idea" you should still be thrilled. Lasering into to fine details starts with 0z tonight imo but even then... We're talking 50-100 miles in total distance here. That can happen in real time. 

We should all read this post 10 times so it sinks in.  A couple tenths of an inch of precip one way or the other or 100 miles in the general track of the low pressure is noise.  Of course that noise is deafening when it takes away 6 inches of digital snow.

Just now, mappy said:

that is not 6 up this way. 

But that’s a 10-1 map.  I think you would be getting some high ratio powder up your way verbatim.

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

The Ukie and the Euro have been pretty consistent with this setup. If you blend the guidance and remove some of the high end Euro Kuchera totals, it seems 6-12 inches is a good forecast.  Sign me up

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Slight decrease overall because the losses from wave 1 slightly offset the gains from wave 2. Wave 2 is the potentially more dynamic and fun but wave 1 was closer. Whatever.  There isn’t much separation between the two anymore either. There is really no lull anymore. Just a long fetch it weak WAA precip ahead of the main wave (2nd) now. The first wave isn’t even a distinct entity anymore imo. 

Maybe it’s because of recent bias, but this seems like the easiest setup for us to have a solid clean score.  Cold air in place, precip with gulf origins.  We don’t need a messy transfer or TPV lobe.  I think we do well with this one.

2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

The Thursday night batch catches us up.  Run truncates...based on 12z, we may add another 1-2" on top of this

Based on historical trends it’s hard not to like that map.  Your basic north trend with a little more juice and we take.

I think more snow showers are’s going to roll through. This has been hell of a storm system.

2 minutes ago, frd said:

Accu Weather with this these 2 possible outcomes 

 

 

Scenario 2 would give many of us more snow in 6 hours than we had during the 72 hour marathon of light snow and snow showers.  Would certainly be cool to have a nice snow pack before the arctic blast 

17 minutes ago, frd said:

 

GEFS

A hair North compared to 12z 

 

 

Not a bad look 5 days out.  A couple ticks more over the next couple days and we will be sweating too far North lol

This band seems like it might have some staying power.  SN and a gusty breeze in Montclair 

This band seems like it might have some staying power.  SN and a gusty breeze in Montclair 

13 minutes ago, peribonca said:

If that band could just train over DC for a few hours that would be really nice

Keep that trajectory for the PWC crowd! Nice surprises tonight with the banding.

Better Sun angle now. Cars whitening again with light snow grains falling.