Southern stream

Could *possibly* be a TDS. notable CC drop in vicinity of couplet.

Gotta watch this one closely.. Its not in the line.

FWIW, I noticed earlier this afternoon some of the CAMS indicated an organization in storm structure as storms closed in on Alabama.

Looks like a new circulation developing just east of radar site

One of the best signatures of the day unfortunately

Cell SW of berry already showing signs of rotation and a hook

Still broad but could be a big problem if it tightens up

Storms really struggling to take advantage of a high end environment due to unfavorable storm modes. SPC was definitely right to hold off on going high risk. Not over yet but not too optimistic this will be a tornado outbreak

Cell interference is what I was first and foremost seeing as the biggest negative with this. Even if storms congeal early on, there should be a very high damaging wind threat. Possibly derecho from LA into MS?

*If* NAM were to verify, this would atleast qualify for a MOD risk day IMO. Low LCLs, 2000+ CAPE, sub 1000 mb Low, upper 60s/low 70s DP, and not to mention pretty significant 0-1km and 0-3km helecities all scream for a significant event in central/northern Louisiana. Only inhibiting factor I could see is for possible cell interference if things get too numerous/grungy. Seems that is an issue quite often this close to the gulf.

Signal for a pretty strong system is there. Moisture/instability and trends in the windfields definitely need to be watched the next few days

If we didn't have the rain/clouds in the OH valley on 4/27, IMO it would have been equal in terms of the strong/violent tornadoes of 74. Either way you look at it though, 11 EF4 and 4 EF5s are generational in terms of one outbreak! Was looking into 74 a few weeks ago. The CAPE/Shear space was insane over such a large geographical area and apparently there was convection prior to the supercells just like 4/27, it had laid boundaries, but did not hamper CAPE build-up as it got out in time before the main show.

This will likely not be a large scale major event in the OH valley or perhaps anywhere, but isolated Sig events still look quite possible.. No matter how you put it, this is the most significant threat we have had in a good while for the southern portions of this sub. Surprised there is not more activity on the thread. Whether or not things remain cellular to the I65 corridor in KY, there should at the least be a decent damaging wind threat with the amount of dynamics we have. I will take a standard slight risk over 42 and rain. Hypothetically....Even if there is say only 1 EF2 out of this event, it may not seem like much on a larger scale but the story changes if that happens to be in your back yard.

Those helicities are a big problem if something like that were to be around at the time

Correct me if wrong, but I think the slight needs to be pulled to atleast the I64 corridor on the D2. *IF* this instabiltity progged verifies, we have the stronger dynamics on our side compared to farther south.

Thoughts anyone?

NAM and GFS both increasing CAPE across west KY for the Sat/Sun system.

Once deeper into April and May, these neg tilt troughs and intense low pressures to our NW would spell trouble forsure. Only thing I can think we've been missing is the instability aspect for the OH valley. Kinematics have definately been there. Still 4-5 days out, but this system looks to be lacking in the instability department as well, similar to the last.