bluehens

2 minutes ago, bpjones595 said:

00z CMC


.

Wilmington approves of this model run

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

That weird extension down through DE into the eastern shore is interesting. Would be awesome if it happened. Right over my house. 

So basically it’s every model now against the NAM and other mesos?

I still can’t get over the difference between the GFS and NAM right now this close in

The way that I look at it is IF we see a meaningful dry slot intrude into our area then the NAM will end up correct. It will be a nowcasting situation. But whenever we see the big dry slot in a Miller B then you know the coastal will end up too far N and E. 

6 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

GGEM too

Wow you aren’t kidding there. All 3 are fantastic. 

The GFS and ICON keep hope alive for far SEPA and northern DE. 

My god I hope the Icon can be right for once

27/13 in Wilmington DE

Radar looks fantastic to the west. 3 state wide wall of water. 

I like seeing the RGEM south. Purely an IMBY opinion given my location relative to the rest of this sub-forum. It has shown massive qpf fairly regularly for this storm. 
 

I don’t think lack of precipitation will be the issue. It’s which model will be right with thermals. I want the low a little further offshore. 

Models seem to really be ramping up the qpf for SEPA and northern DE. It seems to be the trend across many of the models. Of course the RGEM is a dream come true for us in north Wilmington. The GFS seems to be still to warm on thermals so likely those high snow totals will rise. 

19 minutes ago, frd said:

OMG

 

As a Wilmington DE resident I approve this message. 

18 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Mon 10 am

Didn’t somebody bring up yesterday the idea of a dual low off the coast and the model tends to focus on the one closest to heavy convection?  This picture shows just that I think. Maybe a blip?  Or maybe a continuance of that model’s trend. To me it looks looks like the coastal gets going way way too late and it’s too far east to help us much. 

I am hugging the 12z Euro and tossing all other future guidance. 

This thing is going to move N and E in today’s runs. I think we are in a good spot. I may be a tad south even for r/s but I will take my chances. Just don’t need it to tuck back into the Delmarva. 

If i can do 3” on Monday and then another 4-6” at end of week then i would be happy. 

What is happening over the entire state of DE right now. Absolute monsoon outside. 

4” on the ground in north Wilmington. Some sleet mixing in but still a lot of snow

2 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Warm nose aloft making steady progress. Should be a pretty wide area of sleet for a while -- freezing rain where the nose gets thick enough. Haven't seen any thunder reports yet, though.

Somebody earlier mentioned getting the 850 low on the coast earlier may help ending the sleet. Can somebody post where that stands now?

Snow has begun in northern NCC DE

28/16 here in far northern DE. I am a mile shy of the PA border. Just 10 miles to my due north could see like 6” more than me potentially.  Don’t k ow what to expect but likely a lot of sleet.   

Anybody able to post clown map for 18z GFS?

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

One of the oddities of that storm was how the pacific and the blocking played off each other. Like I said earlier everything depends on so many variables. The pac was a mess. Deep Trough in AK and crashing into the west coast. Normally anything would have cut. But there was the most ridiculous block, centered right near Baffin with a ginormous 50/50 stuck under it at the same time. So all it did was take all the Nino STJ and direct it straight up into a massive wall of confluence.  Take away the Uber blocking and that pac configuration wouldn’t work. Put a pna ridge and that confluence probably suppresses anything that has to develop with a further east trough axis. That was a combination of factors that only worked in conjunction with each other.  

Outside of ‘96 that was the single greatest storm for me in northern DE.  Just poured snow for a good 16 hours +. Ended up with 27” of cold powder. Then 4 days later got another 21”. 4 feet in 4 days will never be topped again in this area. 

Will this derecho get to the east coast?  Last thing we need is that wind after all that rain.