RobbyC

Just because it's colder than average in the west doesn't mean it can't also be colder than average in parts of the east. February 2013 was cold in much of the west but was also cold in a good part of the east. Two analogs for February 2021 had a "cold everywhere in the U.S." type of pattern with the core of the cold in the north central states. The southeast was the least cold but still only average. Two such years were 1971 and 1989. A negative PNA can still mean cold in the east if the NAO/AO is also negative. If the NAO/AO stay negative through February, it could keep the eastern seaboard and southeast closer to normal. It wouldn't be as mild as it would otherwise be. I think our region gets two more chances for the frozen stuff during February.

Just because it's colder than average in the west doesn't mean it can't also be colder than average in parts of the east. February 2013 was cold in much of the west but was also cold in a good part of the east. Two analogs for February 2021 had a "cold everywhere in the U.S." type of pattern with the core of the cold in the north central states. The southeast was the least cold but still only average. Two such years were 1971 and 1989. A negative PNA can still mean cold in the east if the NAO/AO is also negative. If the NAO/AO stay negative through February, it could keep the eastern seaboard and southeast closer to normal. It wouldn't be as mild as it would otherwise be. If MJO, though, spends a good bit of time in 6 and 7, what's indicated above would more likely happen. Also, in Nina's, above normal Februarys are more likely in the east than in non-Nina's. I think our region gets two more chances for the frozen stuff during this coming February.

Agreed. GFS has had a better handle on the Fall pattern this year. With the cool shots we've seen this season, it seems like the Euro has failed to spot them in advance with its modeling. It hasn't been able to see "cold" in the long range. MJO is currently in Phase 4 (as of 10/12) and then goes to Phase 5 through the next week. Phase 4 is seasonable/up-down, but Phase 5 is decisively cooler than average in the Southeast for this time of year. Phases 7, 8, and 1 are the ones that are a warm pattern for this time of year while Phase 6 is transitional. Perhaps, Euro is thinking we enter into Phase 7 after a week? AO/NAO are currently negative and will be for at least the next couple weeks. This supports a cooler pattern as well in our region. Judah Cohen (in his 10/12 update) stated that the MJO signal would weaken once it entered into Phase 5, and therefore, wouldn't influence the pattern that much. So, AO/NAO would have the main influence out of those two. Given these, his outlook going to 10/27 says that our area will be in a seasonable/cool pattern overall.