Henry's Weather

Slight risk expanded northeast with 5% tornado probs into most of NE. Hoping for a watch or two tomorrow

This is a one day window?

Isn't this roughly the same setup as last week? Shear seems a little better, while instability seems worse.

Tuesday is a run-of-the-mill frontal passage?

Sun poking back out

Judging by that cell on the MA/NY border, there is still a window for more storms

Round 2?

ETA for storm out in Amherst for me? Like 5:30?

I'm guessing we wont have much until the final frontal passage because of a lack of speed shear, storm mode is too pulsating to allow storms to mature to severe.

52 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

fairly rare. It's actually not *as* rare to get EML advection here, however, to time EML advection say with a cold front approaching is what is rare...It's just so difficult to do. Prior to 5/15/18 the last real EML event I think we had was June 1, 2011. I can't think of anything in between those two...perhaps some puesdo-EML events. (My memory with this stuff isn't as good as it used to be  )

Thanks. More questions, not necessarily only aimed at weatherwiz: In my (limited) understanding,  EML air-masses originate from the SW USA and find their way here along a ridge with westerly winds usually? And they're characterized by dry midlevels and steep midlevel lapse rates? If this is true, and transport is usually due to a midsummer 594-ish mb ridge, I'm wondering why these events aren't that common. It seems like we get ridges like that a couple times every summer, and we see frontal passages maybe every 4 days.

how rare are EML events here?

Worth a slight risk?

so many CGs today

That storm by Mechanicville is a beast

Annoying cap at 900 mb.

How solid is the threat of strong tstorms tomorrow?

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Nope...probably not. Not in this POS summer. Stupid garbage patterns really. HHH garden variety t'storms...bullshit. One of the most ridiculous things ever. Just fast forward to the end. 

At this point I'll just take some rain for the garden

Any chance for more widespread convection on Wednesday?

Call me delusional, but holy EML on the 12z gfs

SPC extending marginal risk across NE... Can someone explain the reason? Is the cold front that strong?

Forgot that I have access to the annals of modern weather on this site, thanks

Anyone have radar imagery/maps of August 4th, 2015? Curious about cape values/shear

 first rumbles in Somerville

Just now, moneypitmike said:

What's the website that shows readings like every 5 minutes?

not great graphics but WHDH