Henry's Weather

Just now, OceanStWx said:

Every ensemble system is different, but in general it is just tweaks to initial conditions. You're not going to find scenarios where member 36 is going to score a coup because it handles shortwaves running into strong highs better or something. 

Ah I think I understand? Because we don't actually have a perfect image of the data, we create mutliple plausible assumptions? And the OP uses some iteration of that? I guess physics equations are pretty much of a constant lol

Just now, greenmtnwx said:

GFS has schooled the Euro in recent times 

Data?

what exactly is the difference in each member? do they value certain things more or something? i assume they take in the same data, would make no sense otherwise

Wow both the EPS and euro have an incredible look

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Remarkable consistency by really every major piece of guidance. One barf run by the goofus not withstanding. 

that would imply EC barfed at 12z too though 

Just now, WinterWolf said:

It’s don’t by 10 am Thursday? 

yeah very quick solution

pretty much done by then though

Just now, WinterWolf said:

It’s not done there..more to come on that. That’s only 10 am on Thursday morning. If my math is right? 

oop, didnt catch that

Just now, weathafella said:

I'm not sure.  24 hours on that path may not be terrible.  Really it's impossible to really have an idea but that's not a lot of movement in 24 hours to me.

still thinking that storms always track SW-NE. Not the case with this one necessarily

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Uncle

gross

Again, glad this run happened several days out as opposed to 48 hours before flakes fall (or don't)

Basically exactly the same as 12z

Ooh, a dagger to the heart

Just now, weathafella said:

Non event Monday.  Good.

Euro pbp?

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Agree. The big solutions are a mirage for now. 

12-18 is a big solution for folks who haven't seen 6" since March 2019. I'll take plowable and blinking snow emergency lights

Just now, J Paul Gordon said:

Lock it. 

Still thinking a couple 3 on Monday and a 4 to 8 solution here on Wed/Thu

tempering expectations?

Just now, JC-CT said:

It's a little weird to me that it basically misses Maine

gets completely shunted east, yeah. confluence really that strong?

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Can’t say I ever recall seeing a 10:1 snow map that nuts for here.

There's gotta be some, 2013 or 2015?

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I hope its wrong with that...I know we have a bette moisture fetch than Boxing day, but I never trust a big coastal frontogenesis band in your area and Boston metro.

I keep refreshing your site lol... working on a write-up?

Kinda nice to be in the position where the more amped, the better because of the safety of the block

Dopamine drip increased

Lock this in holy shit

WPC seems to be delaying the timing? Not sure

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nah, like 31", but NWS through it out.

It was legit.

Such a great storm, huge snowflake and monster rates. Spent the day schlepping around the 'ville with a few buds, just seeing the sights. Memorable for sure. We probably had about 2'