vman722

Not calling bust on the nocturnal threat, but it’s safe to say the couple discrete supercells earlier that were very similar to what the CAMS depicted underperformed the lofty expectations. There were def some brief most likely heavily rain wrapped tornadoes but overall the first part was tempered. Curious to hear from experienced Mets why they mostly failed to take advantage of the wild parameter space.

16 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

Dickson might get round 2

Looks like they just took their second hit based on CC. Just an unbelievably bad situation tonight in so many ways.

The three most southern isolated supercells all look extremely dangerous right now. 

1 minute ago, MUWX said:

more reports of your van and significant damage. 

Hard to understand the mentality of a tour company chasing a storm this violent and erratic at night. Praying they are okay. 

1 minute ago, *IndyMeso* said:

Sounds like a huge wedge heading towards the east side of Lockett.

Just heard a bunch of chasers confirm this on Ryan Hall’s YouTube stream. Motion looks very northerly the last few scans. 

Looks to be possibly occluding and taking a turn north. They need to get Lockett in that polygon. 

The radar presentation on that cell has been just jaw dropping. 

Just now, *IndyMeso* said:

Vince Waelti is literally in front of the tornado in Crowell, TX

He legit almost just got swept away, that was crazy. 

Violent motion.

12 minutes ago, mob1 said:

The cell near Sandersville looks interesting if it can stave off the junk to it's south. 

Not sure why that one isn't warned at this point, velocity has looked to warrant it for a little now. 

Certainly looks like it has a pretty well defined area of low level rotation on radar but looks like it would be really tough to get a good look through the rain around it. Also looks like the main line will be impacting it more shortly if it doesn't start taking more of a jog E. Curious if any of the smaller cells further south can organize more. 

Memphis definitely guna come into play here soon. Was sleeping on today apparently. 

Just now, Wmsptwx said:

Sounds like some moderate structural damage reported in Newnan.

Think it will be a pretty different situation come daylight unfortunately. 

If this manages to cycle once again I’ll be blown away. 

Couplet is still pretty tight.

Debris sig on CC is 2 miles wide.

CC just dropped some more... man.

6 minutes ago, DanLarsen34 said:

It’s definitely trying to cycle. Rotation isn’t as strong, but we’ll see if it gets it act together one last time. 

Oh yeah that hook is definitely coming back around. Very similar to its previous cycle.

About a half hour ago it fully cycled and wasn’t even severe warned, only to rapidly intensify and drop a monster. Let’s see if it can do it once more. 

Looks heavily rain wrapped at the moment. 

The little kidney bean near Shannon MS has exploded from nothing the last few scans.

Just now, MattPetrulli said:

HRRR doesn't do too much with them UH wise, but I am not sure I believe that given the environment.

Agreed. Currently working with extreme effective shear on the order of 80+ kts. Will only move into better SRH with time. 

Humphress has a wedge on his stream.