Wetbulbs88

The HRRR is vaguely useful at 6 hours. At this range it means almost nothing.

Glad I’m not the only one who pronounces the HRDPS like this in my head

This is utterly wild.

I have zero faith in the NAM right now. I've seen this movie when we've been hoping for improvements and we get NAM'd. It always overdoes things, and in this setup the consequences are more drastic than normal.

I don’t as much until other mesos agree. NAM isn’t the greatest model.

It’s significantly wetter for DC

In no way was this a hold for DC. Significant shift toward a snowier solution. The models could be underestimating the CAD signature which was at least common historically. Not sure about now.

This feels like 2017 when I was in NYC, but not quite as bad. The call from NWS was for 24-36"--the largest total I've ever seen from NWS--with less than 24 hours to go. By gametime they were bringing down estimates by half a foot an hour, and we basically got a sleetfest after 6". Hoping for the best, but this is why I didn't put my chips in yesterday. These things almost always shift around. Given what was modeled for the last day-plus, a 4-8" really isn't going to feel nearly as nice as it would have otherwise.

Literally one run of the UK and CMC and you're panicking? And it's also a pretty great solution themselves? Relax.

Yeah that's absolutely gorgeous. Textbook.

This is by far my favorite storm given the setup and last-minute forecast.

Total bust here. A dusting with no road stickage. Saw the writing on the wall for certain by 3:00AM. Just too far south.

This has been my thinking throughout. My expectations are low for DC proper. It's kind of like Miller Bs, where the transfer is like threading a needle. Not exactly the same here but it's similar.

The radar looks great. If the models weren't so adamant about this missing south I'd be thrilled right now. It's even moving more NE than modeled. I'm sure dry air will shave the northern batch right off as it approaches.

For less than one day in terms of the HECS.

Um. Are you okay?

Anyone there yet? TT still a ways to go.

NAM might still snow but upper levels are telling. It’s at the very least starting to cave.

I told my pup we were getting the big one. She’s going to be super bummed.

Lesson here? There are perhaps more busts than storms.

We need a January 2000 situation that was supposed to slam Raleigh/richmond and OTS but then we got just about 18” in good ole Ellicott City. I’ve never woken up more excited in my life. I looked at the radar the night before thinking, That really doesn’t look like it’s missing us. Then at 6AM I’m taking a piss and my dad yells to me that it’s blizzarding outside.

Welp. I’m still not throwing it out yet.

We’re not even close to a solution. Focus on that first.

So we weren’t off when thinking they could be chasing convection after all. what a ride so far.

I say it every time. The NAM has a time and place. We just block out all the times it leads the way because it’s more fun to treat it like the stepchild.