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Posts posted by klw

  1. 3 hours ago, dendrite said:

    Yeah probably. Here's the HIE daily records since the ASOS began in 7/96.


    I remember those cold days of Jan 16/17 2009.  We were living in Bethlehem.  One of those two days I went to Lancaster via Whitefield.  When I got to Lancaster the bank thermometer read -34.  I got out in the parking lot and it was actually very comfortable in the early morning sunshine with no wind.

    It is already -6f here, based on the massive number of cars heading north on 89 tonight it is going to be a big weekend at the Vermont Ski resorts.

    • Like 1
  2. 1 hour ago, powderfreak said:


    313 PM EST Fri Jan 21 2022
    ...Bitterly cold temperatures are forecast for the North Country
    Another round of cold temperatures are expected tonight with low
    temperatures generally dipping to between 10 and 30 below zero.
    Although winds will be light to calm, protect against hypothermia
    and expect to need multiple layers of clothing if heading
    outdoors. Running or even a brisk walk in these conditions could
    result in frost bite on exposed skin.


  3. 2 hours ago, dryslot said:

    Phinn is the reason were in this dilemma in the northeast, He brought up they're bad juju from the Mid Atlantic, I think if we offer him up to ullr, We may be able to salvage the next few years.

    You would think that Eyewall leaving and taking his jinx with him would have cancelled Phin out.

    • Haha 2
  4. 16 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

    Just seems weird that the March ‘93 superstorm was targeted by models so early on and now almost thirty years later we still (the models)  struggle with long and medium term events. 

    I don't know about that.  It seems pretty much locked in and agreed that there will be a cutter between Dec 23rd and 25.  Couple details still to be worked out.  Not bad for 8090 hours out.

    • Haha 2
  5. I got somewhere between 6 and 10 inches.  I will call it 8 inches.  There was so much drifting this morning that any elevated surfaces were being scoured clean.  No rain or mix but we did get to 34.  When we did the wind stopped but the snow did not.  Some dry sections but no drizzle.

    • Like 1
  6. 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

    Enjoying every minute of it. Very windy so it’s tough to tell how much but probably 5 inches. Dog having a blast


    I tried putting my dog out about half an hour ago.  The wind was so strong she ran out about 3 steps turned and ran back in.

  7. 20 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:


    I mean ... I think back to that whopper < 12 hour temperature recovery event back in 1994. It was late January ( you're better with dates than me ...). That was also a plain to see we were going to be porked by WAA fisting up the coast.  

    I was still a fledgling Met back in those days, and so I was really in a frame of mind where, " ...I gotta see this to believe it..."     Lack of experience, combined with the 9 F at 8am on the Wx Lab monitor, with blue tinted dawn and flurries under the street lamps along the walk over, didn't lend to believing. 

    But, there was no high pressure N... In fact, it was even less so than this one is presently modeled to have. The baroclinic wall/associated cyclone approached from the W, not the S like this one will.  That event back then really was a completely unabated rush on the cold QB, and the QB was definitely going to unavoidably take a sack.  

    By noon, 9 had become 22. Freezing rain kicked in, which only accelerated the heat retreat - because once we started accreting ... phase change latency kicked in and sent the temp pretty quickly toward freezing.  By 3 is 32 ... 32.01 as Ray muses from time to time. The sky had changed texture. By 4, it was strato-streets visibly moving N with extreme rapidity...  35.   The cafeteria below Smith Hall opened for dinner at 5:30.  I was sitting there eating, and the bushes immediately outside the window were suddenly whipping around.  By then I knew this was the warm boundary...  At some point between 4:30 and 5:30 ( I had stopped paying attention out of resentment, ha) it came through and leaned tree tops over. When I stepped out shortly after 6, the night setting was sounds of turbines pushing 60 air up and over snow banks, that were sending Kelvin Hemholtz steam plumes rollin' down wind..  The air smelled like summer.  I think it was Friday... and the campus came to life. Students spilled out of dorms because ... I guess going from 9 to 62 musta been tee-shirt weather for lacking acclimation.

    Sparing furthering misery of that anecdote, ...last year's Grinch storm?  Same... Huge snow pack.  Pretty chilly ( though not 9 ) the day before... Completely naked and no defense to a full latitude trough moving E across the country.

    This is not like those.


    January 28, 1994 perhaps.  Burlington went from -28 on the 27th to 47 on the 28 and back to a high of 9 on the 30th.


    1994-01-15 7 -14 -3.5 -21.8 68 0 T T 15
    1994-01-16 -5 -18 -11.5 -29.7 76 0 T T 14
    1994-01-17 28 -5 11.5 -6.7 53 0 0.29 5.6 14
    1994-01-18 24 -4 10.0 -8.2 55 0 0.05 0.6 19
    1994-01-19 3 -17 -7.0 -25.2 72 0 0.00 0.0 16
    1994-01-20 7 -6 0.5 -17.7 64 0 T T 16
    1994-01-21 13 -1 6.0 -12.2 59 0 T T 15
    1994-01-22 17 -2 7.5 -10.7 57 0 0.02 1.0 15
    1994-01-23 20 -13 3.5 -14.7 61 0 0.10 2.5 16
    1994-01-24 31 17 24.0 5.7 41 0 0.02 0.5 16
    1994-01-25 17 0 8.5 -9.8 56 0 T T 15
    1994-01-26 0 -25 -12.5 -30.9 77 0 0.00 0.0 13
    1994-01-27 15 -29 -7.0 -25.5 72 0 T 0.1 13
    1994-01-28 47 14 30.5 12.0 34 0 0.31 0.6 14
    1994-01-29 44 9 26.5 7.9 38 0 0.01 0.1 12
    1994-01-30 9 -8 0.5 -18.2 64 0 T 0.1 11
    1994-01-31 10 -13 -1.5 -20.3 66 0 0.00 0.0 11


    I remember sitting in my room with the 6 PM news talking about rain for the next day while it was sitting at -26.

    • Like 3
  8. BTV has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Monday:
    https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VTZ005&warncounty=VTC007&firewxzone=VTZ005&local_place1=Burlington VT&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch&lat=44.4836&lon=-73.2114#.YeHdJP7MJPY
    For the
      Winter Storm Watch, heavy snow possible. Total snow
      accumulations of 8 to 12 inches possible across northern New
      York and portions of south-central Vermont, while 5 to 8 inches
      across the Champlain Valley and northern Vermont. Winds could
      gust as high as 35 mph.
  9. Just got a Winter Storm Watch:

    https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VTZ005&warncounty=VTC007&firewxzone=VTZ005&local_place1=Burlington VT&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch&lat=44.4836&lon=-73.2114#.YeHdJP7MJPY

    For the
      Winter Storm Watch, heavy snow possible. Total snow
      accumulations of 8 to 12 inches possible across northern New
      York and portions of south-central Vermont, while 5 to 8 inches
      across the Champlain Valley and northern Vermont. Winds could
      gust as high as 35 mph.
    • Like 1
  10. From the BTV morning AFD:


    As of 335 AM EST Friday...On Monday, a cut-off low will lift
    northeast and reassimilate with the mid-latitude westerlies. A
    period of snow is expected as a warm front lifts north before
    dawn on Monday. For portions of our southern counties, a brief
    interval of a mix or some freezing drizzle can`t be ruled out
    late Monday morning into early afternoon, and then some
    additional snow in the northwest flow is expected as the system
    departs Monday evening. A period of hazardous travel is likely,
    mainly Monday morning, but perhaps during the evening as well
    once we see snow redevelop on the backside of the system. A
    small window of strong, gusty winds is also possible for the
    southern Greens Monday morning, but the chances appears smaller
    this forecast cycle. QPF values are starting to become
    clustered, and thus snow totals are as well. A widespread 3 to 6
    inches is most likely, with locally higher amounts in eastern
    slopes of the southern Greens and Adirondacks around 6 to 8
    inches. Across the St. Lawrence Valley, some heavier snow
    appears possible, which would yield higher snowfall amounts,
    generally between 6 to 10 inches. These are very early
    estimates, and we are still just outside the range of mesoscale
    models. So anticipate some refinements.
    On the meteorological side, there`s not much change to note. The
    pros to widespread precipitation include: strong cyclonic vorticity
    advection, isentropic upglide upwards of 100mb off 70 knot winds at
    290K, a coupled jet structure assisting in supporting strong
    updrafts, and the upslope component on the eastern slopes.
    Additionally, forecast FGEN/Deformation appears like it could be a
    bit more concentrated over the St. Lawrence Valley, with the
    potential for a pivoting mesoband based on forecast sounding
    hodographs. On the cons side: brief intrusion of mid-level dry air,
    terrain downsloping in strong east flow, fragmented FGEN/Deformation
    outside the St. Lawrence Valley, the potential for a brief period of
    sleet in southern Vermont, and strong winds fragmenting dendrites
    (lower SLR values). Indeed, the Cobb method indicates SLR values
    fluctuating between 8:1 and 12:1 over Rutland, but is forecast to be
    higher over the St. Lawrence Valley, where values fluctuate more
    between 10:1 and 15:1. Even in model precipitation outputs, one can
    see the impacts of terrain shadowing and the dry mid-level air with
    a gap in QPF values that traverse right over Vermont due to the
    low`s track near or just south of the forecast area. Overall the
    forecast has become more tightly clustered, but we remain just
    outside the cusp of mesoscale models. So some changes remain
    possible in the exact placement of things like mesoscale features
    and mid-level thermal conditions, but the overall picture is coming
    in to focus. Probabilities greater than 4" are generally between 60-
    90% for our forecast area from the NBM, and also based off CIPS
    analogs. We need this snow, with our deficit for the season ranging
    from 10-15" below average. So, this event will mostly be beneficial
    for our area, but stay up to date with the forecast for your travel
    interests. Activity will taper towards the mountain and come to a
    close during the day on Tuesday.
    • Like 1
  11. 56 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

    I noted that in my AFD this morning. Ensembles show spread in two ways, in time and in position. Usually you’ll see those 24 hour QPF lines for every member with a random scattering of events throughout time. However the ensembles right now are all showing the same time window for precip. The ones that don’t are because they are out to sea, not because they don’t think they’ll be a storm. It’s a pretty strong signal, especially this far out. 

    From BTV's afternoon AFD:


    For early next week, the latest data has trended more amplified with
    a strong storm system after it moves across the Southeast US in
    response to a northern stream trough tugging it northward. If the
    storm is steered northward, we will see at least some effect but it
    is too early to know in what way at this time. The latest GFS
    ensemble suggests a 20 to 30% chance of seeing at least a 0.5" of
    liquid, indicative of at least a moderate snowfall, in Vermont
    westward through the Adirondacks. Similar trends in the CMC and
    ECMWF global guidance on this forecast cycle occurred. Note this is
    a massive shift for ensembles of data, as those initialized 12 hours
    earlier indicated low chances of any precipitation for our area. As
    a result, we cannot assume a trend yet but have increased
    precipitation chances substantially to split the difference between
    the latest deterministic guidance and the National Blend of Models.
    Stay tuned!
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