klw

-11 here off of a low of -15

18 minutes ago, dryslot said:

We could talk about HHH  {snicker}

"It is not the lack of heat which makes today cold, it is the lack of humidity" - no one

3 hours ago, dendrite said:

Yeah probably. Here's the HIE daily records since the ASOS began in 7/96.

I remember those cold days of Jan 16/17 2009.  We were living in Bethlehem.  One of those two days I went to Lancaster via Whitefield.  When I got to Lancaster the bank thermometer read -34.  I got out in the parking lot and it was actually very comfortable in the early morning sunshine with no wind.

It is already -6f here, based on the massive number of cars heading north on 89 tonight it is going to be a big weekend at the Vermont Ski resorts.

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Frigid.

313 PM EST Fri Jan 21 2022

...Bitterly cold temperatures are forecast for the North Country
tonight...

Another round of cold temperatures are expected tonight with low
temperatures generally dipping to between 10 and 30 below zero.
Although winds will be light to calm, protect against hypothermia
and expect to need multiple layers of clothing if heading
outdoors. Running or even a brisk walk in these conditions could
result in frost bite on exposed skin.

-11 at the house when I left.  Warmest I saw on the drive to Burlington was -9 coldest was -15.  Pretty uniform over the elevations.

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

Phinn is the reason were in this dilemma in the northeast, He brought up they're bad juju from the Mid Atlantic, I think if we offer him up to ullr, We may be able to salvage the next few years.

You would think that Eyewall leaving and taking his jinx with him would have cancelled Phin out.

16 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Just seems weird that the March ‘93 superstorm was targeted by models so early on and now almost thirty years later we still (the models)  struggle with long and medium term events. 

I don't know about that.  It seems pretty much locked in and agreed that there will be a cutter between Dec 23rd and 25.  Couple details still to be worked out.  Not bad for 8090 hours out.

11 hours ago, dendrite said:

Steve doesn’t really like day 7 threads. There’s just bad mojo hanging over the thread. 

IF we start a Grinch Storm 2020 thread right now there is a pretty good chance it materializes (and few folks would be disappointed if it did not).

I got somewhere between 6 and 10 inches.  I will call it 8 inches.  There was so much drifting this morning that any elevated surfaces were being scoured clean.  No rain or mix but we did get to 34.  When we did the wind stopped but the snow did not.  Some dry sections but no drizzle.

42 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

She must not be a golden

41 minutes ago, dryslot said:

So he must still have furniture left.

Black Lab.  All the furniture colors were designed in a time when we had light colored goldens.  Oh and she sheds.

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Enjoying every minute of it. Very windy so it’s tough to tell how much but probably 5 inches. Dog having a blast

I tried putting my dog out about half an hour ago.  The wind was so strong she ran out about 3 steps turned and ran back in.

-13 here

10 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

24 hours to go...

I wanna be sedated

20 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Zactly!

I mean ... I think back to that whopper < 12 hour temperature recovery event back in 1994. It was late January ( you're better with dates than me ...). That was also a plain to see we were going to be porked by WAA fisting up the coast.  

I was still a fledgling Met back in those days, and so I was really in a frame of mind where, " ...I gotta see this to believe it..."     Lack of experience, combined with the 9 F at 8am on the Wx Lab monitor, with blue tinted dawn and flurries under the street lamps along the walk over, didn't lend to believing. 

But, there was no high pressure N... In fact, it was even less so than this one is presently modeled to have. The baroclinic wall/associated cyclone approached from the W, not the S like this one will.  That event back then really was a completely unabated rush on the cold QB, and the QB was definitely going to unavoidably take a sack.  

By noon, 9 had become 22. Freezing rain kicked in, which only accelerated the heat retreat - because once we started accreting ... phase change latency kicked in and sent the temp pretty quickly toward freezing.  By 3 is 32 ... 32.01 as Ray muses from time to time. The sky had changed texture. By 4, it was strato-streets visibly moving N with extreme rapidity...  35.   The cafeteria below Smith Hall opened for dinner at 5:30.  I was sitting there eating, and the bushes immediately outside the window were suddenly whipping around.  By then I knew this was the warm boundary...  At some point between 4:30 and 5:30 ( I had stopped paying attention out of resentment, ha) it came through and leaned tree tops over. When I stepped out shortly after 6, the night setting was sounds of turbines pushing 60 air up and over snow banks, that were sending Kelvin Hemholtz steam plumes rollin' down wind..  The air smelled like summer.  I think it was Friday... and the campus came to life. Students spilled out of dorms because ... I guess going from 9 to 62 musta been tee-shirt weather for lacking acclimation.

Sparing furthering misery of that anecdote, ...last year's Grinch storm?  Same... Huge snow pack.  Pretty chilly ( though not 9 ) the day before... Completely naked and no defense to a full latitude trough moving E across the country.

This is not like those.

January 28, 1994 perhaps.  Burlington went from -28 on the 27th to 47 on the 28 and back to a high of 9 on the 30th.

https://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=btv

I remember sitting in my room with the 6 PM news talking about rain for the next day while it was sitting at -26.

BTV has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Monday:
https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VTZ005&warncounty=VTC007&firewxzone=VTZ005&local_place1=Burlington VT&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch&lat=44.4836&lon=-73.2114#.YeHdJP7MJPY
For the
  Winter Storm Watch, heavy snow possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 8 to 12 inches possible across northern New
  York and portions of south-central Vermont, while 5 to 8 inches
  across the Champlain Valley and northern Vermont. Winds could
  gust as high as 35 mph.

Just got a Winter Storm Watch:

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VTZ005&warncounty=VTC007&firewxzone=VTZ005&local_place1=Burlington VT&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch&lat=44.4836&lon=-73.2114#.YeHdJP7MJPY

For the
  Winter Storm Watch, heavy snow possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 8 to 12 inches possible across northern New
  York and portions of south-central Vermont, while 5 to 8 inches
  across the Champlain Valley and northern Vermont. Winds could
  gust as high as 35 mph.

(Moving this from the other thread to here)  I am going over for me because, for some reason, it feels like I see good snows on both MLK Day and January 17.  With it being both, I am irrationally expecting to bust high.

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

12z Euro looked like it was a tic or two east and a bit colder then 06z, Its getting some snow right to the coastline here.

Up here the surface looks a smidge west vs 0Z:

\

12 Z Euro clown

From the BTV morning AFD:

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 335 AM EST Friday...On Monday, a cut-off low will lift
northeast and reassimilate with the mid-latitude westerlies. A
period of snow is expected as a warm front lifts north before
dawn on Monday. For portions of our southern counties, a brief
interval of a mix or some freezing drizzle can`t be ruled out
late Monday morning into early afternoon, and then some
additional snow in the northwest flow is expected as the system
departs Monday evening. A period of hazardous travel is likely,
mainly Monday morning, but perhaps during the evening as well
once we see snow redevelop on the backside of the system. A
small window of strong, gusty winds is also possible for the
southern Greens Monday morning, but the chances appears smaller
this forecast cycle. QPF values are starting to become
clustered, and thus snow totals are as well. A widespread 3 to 6
inches is most likely, with locally higher amounts in eastern
slopes of the southern Greens and Adirondacks around 6 to 8
inches. Across the St. Lawrence Valley, some heavier snow
appears possible, which would yield higher snowfall amounts,
generally between 6 to 10 inches. These are very early
estimates, and we are still just outside the range of mesoscale
models. So anticipate some refinements.

On the meteorological side, there`s not much change to note. The
pros to widespread precipitation include: strong cyclonic vorticity
advection, isentropic upglide upwards of 100mb off 70 knot winds at
290K, a coupled jet structure assisting in supporting strong
updrafts, and the upslope component on the eastern slopes.
Additionally, forecast FGEN/Deformation appears like it could be a
bit more concentrated over the St. Lawrence Valley, with the
potential for a pivoting mesoband based on forecast sounding
hodographs. On the cons side: brief intrusion of mid-level dry air,
terrain downsloping in strong east flow, fragmented FGEN/Deformation
outside the St. Lawrence Valley, the potential for a brief period of
sleet in southern Vermont, and strong winds fragmenting dendrites
(lower SLR values). Indeed, the Cobb method indicates SLR values
fluctuating between 8:1 and 12:1 over Rutland, but is forecast to be
higher over the St. Lawrence Valley, where values fluctuate more
between 10:1 and 15:1. Even in model precipitation outputs, one can
see the impacts of terrain shadowing and the dry mid-level air with
a gap in QPF values that traverse right over Vermont due to the
low`s track near or just south of the forecast area. Overall the
forecast has become more tightly clustered, but we remain just
outside the cusp of mesoscale models. So some changes remain
possible in the exact placement of things like mesoscale features
and mid-level thermal conditions, but the overall picture is coming
in to focus. Probabilities greater than 4" are generally between 60-
90% for our forecast area from the NBM, and also based off CIPS
analogs. We need this snow, with our deficit for the season ranging
from 10-15" below average. So, this event will mostly be beneficial
for our area, but stay up to date with the forecast for your travel
interests. Activity will taper towards the mountain and come to a
close during the day on Tuesday.

46 minutes ago, dryslot said:

This ones tracking right across your screen,

.........................................................................................................

Some upgraded graphics for you to use:

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS spread actually increased from 06z which is weird when you get closer.

 

 

Was it the EPS which "pulsed" like that with the last storm or the OP?

38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Why are they ens useless? 

So are you saying the ens don't justify their means?

21 minutes ago, dendrite said:

No one wants to see their Navy over land.

Except Whitehall NY

https://www.whitehall-chamber.org/

56 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I noted that in my AFD this morning. Ensembles show spread in two ways, in time and in position. Usually you’ll see those 24 hour QPF lines for every member with a random scattering of events throughout time. However the ensembles right now are all showing the same time window for precip. The ones that don’t are because they are out to sea, not because they don’t think they’ll be a storm. It’s a pretty strong signal, especially this far out. 

From BTV's afternoon AFD:

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

For early next week, the latest data has trended more amplified with
a strong storm system after it moves across the Southeast US in
response to a northern stream trough tugging it northward. If the
storm is steered northward, we will see at least some effect but it
is too early to know in what way at this time. The latest GFS
ensemble suggests a 20 to 30% chance of seeing at least a 0.5" of
liquid, indicative of at least a moderate snowfall, in Vermont
westward through the Adirondacks. Similar trends in the CMC and
ECMWF global guidance on this forecast cycle occurred. Note this is
a massive shift for ensembles of data, as those initialized 12 hours
earlier indicated low chances of any precipitation for our area. As
a result, we cannot assume a trend yet but have increased
precipitation chances substantially to split the difference between
the latest deterministic guidance and the National Blend of Models.
Stay tuned!