Greg

23 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

For Boston metro, Box AFD putting lots of attention to a coastal front (in addition to the incoming warmth aloft we've extensively discussed)... the meso models variably hint at it encroaching 4z-5z before the warmth aloft arrives... another big variable adding uncertainty... could impact whether Boston metro sees 1-2" vs. 2-4". And as already discussed, this definitely could be a Logan 1" slop / western burbs 2-4" deal.

In any case, NNE vs. E surface winds will also have to be watched as this unfolds. The surface high will help at least for the first few hours.

Actually Harvey was saying earlier that if the cold hangs on long enough he could see about 1-2" around Logan International right on the water and the immediate western urban centers getting 2-4"; 4" of course being as close as extreme western Cambridge.  We'll see.  Really hope the high remains stubborn to move fast and the primary low goes a couple of tics futher south.  That would really help keep the mid-level cold in place.

Come on baby.  Just a couple or so ticks further south with the primary low and we're in business. Just need the high pressure to be a little more stubborn to leave and there you have it.

It actually has snowed in November like this.  November 12, 1987 when I was a kid, it's in the KocinUcillini Book. (6-12") for the Boston area. Wilmington actually got 9.2" out of that, so yes these things can happen.

That CMC model is rather interesting.  It usually runs a tad warm. But showing what it does right now makes you sort of wonder if this low is really strictly offshore and keeping most of the columns cold while only at the tail end of the storm with only very light prcip left do you get snizzle. Very interesting solution.

32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If we start the season with a SWFE la nina type undertone, then go typical weak nino, I may clean up.

I feel the same here and for most of the heart of our viewing area. Miss ya Ray!

Just need the low to track ever so slightly east with the WAA and we then end up geting a colder solution than we have right now.  Hopfully this is the beging of coming attractions what will end up being a snowy winter here in the Central and Southern New England region.

Looks good so far but we need to get through October before things really start to fall into place.  Love the idea and look of a potential "Bread and Butter" weak El Nino pattern occurring.  Very Classic look but still of course too early. I'm very interested in how it pans out, hopefully very well.  I'll keep checking in time to time to see what the latest discussion is and how it's shaping up.

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This beat '78...it was like 27" where we are.

No Ray, we've talked about this.  I went to the pumping stations in north Wilmington.  The man showed me the book.  32" for storm, 37" on Ground.  No 6 hour measurements back then. Hell, both Burlington, Ma and North Andover came in with 30".  Again no 6 hour measurements back then.

north 

59 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

You’re right. With the last band pivoting through, maybe you finish with 31-32”. Insane. I think I managed a “pedestrian” foot. 

IF RAY measures 32" then '78 is in trouble here.

5 minutes ago, Semper911 said:

Well he was right about the center of the system being so far east, but he never caught on that it didn't matter.

It was a 2 center storm not 1.  The one that he talked about was nearly 400 miles out but the closer one was just outside the benchmark.

15 minutes ago, geo1 said:

Maybe Ray and Greg have lost power but pretty sure we got the 30" mark in these parts if not well over 2' crazy!

Oh, I have power my man, hope you do to.  Not sure if it's quite 30" but 27-29" maybe the upper bounds.  We'll see what the finals are but what a storm.  I thought these totals would be around Plymouth, Brockton, Taunton.  Not reversed.

3 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

I'm wondering how some of those really low totals in the valley were measured.  I know they got less snow but I had a wide variety of measurements whether I measured on pavement, cement, grass, car, picnic table, truck bed or on my snowboard.  My "official" spot is my snow board and that's what goes in the record but I also got much lower readings on any of the ground measurements so I'm wondering if some of those measurements reflect measurements on the ground as opposed to a board?

Nice light snow now...hopefully add some more overnight. 

Many people don't use a snowboard.  They continue like me to do it the old fashioned wasy.  They take several readings by sticking a sharp metal ruler into the ground or place without obstruction and report the averge.

1 minute ago, SlantStick said:

I had an above ground pool at the time with 52" wall. Snow was tickling the top! Kids were almost a month late starting baseball.

I believe that! The Depth was large of course, but the pure storm total was less.  Durham, NH is practically your neighbor.  You can check what fell yourself.  They will give you snowfall and depth on ground.

4 minutes ago, SlantStick said:

Still dumping here in Nottingham. Second best storm since the 40" in March of 2001! Over 20" , about 30" otg

Weather records show that was snow depth (old and new snow Combined) not pure storm total.

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

28"

Usually we yell at each other for being a little too low or high but guesss what I have 27" of snow on my deck as of now so we both can't be too wrong. Wow Ray! I never saw this coming!

6 minutes ago, geo1 said:

Puking snow now it is crazy maybe 2'?

Possible but I think we fall a little shy of it to be honest.

22 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Agree... just probably more out between 128-495

That's were I am and many of the viewers here.  We got the first band that sat for a while and then as that second band weaker but still intact pulls east into the heart of our viewing area, we will see some of those higher amounts.

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Same...glad we have similar measurements. 

There is a lot of drifting of course as you can see also, so your 15.5" is probably just as good.

5 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

18z RAP run gave Boston area another 4-6"... that band, though less robust, looks decent and will deliver. Intensity and flakes already improving. 

When all is said and done Boston area will probably end up 11-15"...  nothing to complain about... is great by Sunday's expectations, and only by yesterday's 20"+ runs does it seem like a bust

 

Somebody will pull 20 out of this.

About 15" on the deck. Just heard something about 10.5" of in our town on channel 5.  That's an old report.

2 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

Low level circulation definitely ripping off to the east now...

Do you see the other low that is closer, I can.

1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

Remnants of mega band have breached 495 wall... ticking east... I think by 4pm Boston area will be singing a different tune

That band was moving east a little while ago.  I've been snowing steadily ever since.

I haven't measured yet but I know the snow is definitely deeper.  I'll measure at 3:00.

1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

Probably does not include the Worcester area post-deathband

Burlington MA reported that total nearly 2 hours ago.  That map is off.

Just now, Hambone said:

2 miles west of MIlford.. Lots of large branches down.  Hard to measure depth because of the drifting.  I don't think we're anywhere near 20". That Milford reading is suspect.

Maybe a drift or elevated area there.  Who knows.