RVASnowLover

Decent band coming through RVA now. Tornado warnings happening down in HR. One warning now in Norfolk

4 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Wow! And now with a healthy eyewall and a strengthening storm, could be a rough go in RVA.

We'll see. 00Z 3K NAM is not as bullish showing only 3" for RVA. The heaviest stuff being near the bay. 

00Z HRRR has RVA getting around 6"

Decent band, heavy rain at times. Already over 1 inch of rain. May get a little lull soon

light snow in near the fan. Top of cars getting a dusting. 

4 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

HRRR and Nam. They  both drastically  increased amounts  in se va and  a  little  further  NW.

I could be wrong but I have hard time buying that much snow the models are putting out. Temps are marginal and the system seems to be moving rather quickly

Flurries at best I think in RIC

Looks like it's sticking to grassy areas in Emporia. 

heavy snow in Emporia on the VDOT cams. And in Williamsburg

2 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said:

Well not gonna give up complete hope YET... Some filling in still going on .... Enjoy it in Norfolk should be a good one down there...

Every time it looks like it's trying to fill in, dry air eats away at it. 

Yeah I was definitely suffering from sleep deprivation and hallucinating earlier. Not looking good for RVA. Pity snow at best. 

Well hopefully we can at least get a period of some snow. Something to look at. 

Just now, eaglesin2011 said:

What  interesting is seeing the back fill in from the ocean back into the southern VA area almost to us...

I could be hallucinating but I actually like how the radar looks. 

I do see that. FWIW, our friends in the SE forum look like they are getting concerned, mainly with temps. Temps are always an issue down there though. 

5 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said:

ha ha I know its most likely Virga but a decent band was forming  that's why I asked if anything was hitting the ground....  If we dont have anything by 7pm I dont expect us to get anything measurable . This system is moving quickly 

Agree. I'll give it until around 7. If it's not doing anything then, I will wave the white flag. 

It's going to be awfully close in RVA. 

39 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said:

F the models at this point .... It's radar & water vapor hallucination time! 

May need a few real drinks later ha

 

I've already started with the radar hallucinations lol. Radar looks pretty decent. 

Just now, NovaTarHeel said:

Yeah, I'm not giving up yet.  Radar looks better than the NAM already.  Lots of times the precip shield extends much further than the models show.  At the very least, we should see some flurries, which will make this the 2nd best storm of the year!

That's a sad true statement. 

7 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said:

12z NAM suite completely blanks the Richmond area.

Even Petersburg area only gets maybe a dusting to half inch. I'm checking out. Maybe we'll get surprised. 

22 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said:

I dont think there is any way that RIC (city) misses this..

I think 1-3 is a good call.. maybe 2-4 if lucky with a good band

 

Hope you're right. NAM and 12z HRRR show nothing for RVA. RGEM get an inch or two in RVA

No changes in the 18z GFS. Still pretty dry/light. 

Sharp cut off north of Richmond which is typical to see a sharp cut off for the area. 

18Z NAM looks like it went north or at least brings more heavier precip into VA. 

9 minutes ago, Hyphnx said:

Watch it be another 2018 storm. HRRR is coming in colder at the 17z run

It wouldn't surprise me if it goes more north than forecasted. I don't think it will be a repeat of December 2018 though. 

GFS is very dry.