RVASnowLover

Fingers crossed 

Just dreading the possible ticks north. It will probably happen but how far north 

9 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said:

Yeah the 28th looks to be our best chance for awhile .   I cant say I like being in the bullseye this early either..... A jog back south wouldn't be the worst thing at this point. Still think allot is going to depend on how far north the first storm goes to set up this one so probably won't know for sure until that happens.. 

Agree. The Monday storm will be depict what happens with this one. That’s why I’m cautiously optimistic. If anything, a small jog south would be okay 

18z GFS was historic. Again, cautiously optimistic. Still many runs to go 

7 minutes ago, JB Fins said:

Agree, would take that run in a heartbeat and call it.

However, 7 days out and I hate anytime we are in the bullseye this far out.

Guess we can play the "We're due" card.

 

Agree. It’s also happening on a Thursday and for some reason we get our best snows on a Thursday-weekend 

I would gladly take the EURO and a call it a winter 

I would honestly take the 12z EURO and call it a winter. It’s probably not right but we’ll see 

9 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

And the 28th too? I’m more interested in Thursday, I don’t believe in anything happening on Monday/Tuesday here. I’d love to be surprised though.

Yeah for the 28th too. If you take it verbatim RVA is right on that line as it always is and we all know how that usually goes. Wild to see how low off SC. High to the north but can’t get enough cold air this way 

So far 12z gfs says more cold rain, maybe some mixing north and west for the 25th and the 28th really 

7 hours ago, RVASnowLover said:

It’s looking interesting but the way the models have been so inconsistent run to run I’m cautiously optimistic 

And of course after saying this the 00z EURO comes out and says nope 

It’s looking interesting but the way the models have been so inconsistent run to run I’m cautiously optimistic 

Meh...next!

EURO gives us some great digital snow. Wish it was reliable at that long range 

Something to watch for maybe around the 18th? Doesn’t look like much right now but it’s something 

Onto the next one 

10 hours ago, eaglesin2011 said:

Looks like a disorganized broken up mess to me but guess we will see how it looks in the morning... if it looks like we can squeeze out anything up this way besides rain.

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It still looks like a disorganized broken up mess. I highly doubt we get much of anything out of this

If that low is strong we’re not going to get anything 

3 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said:

18z gets it up further North into VA, but misses Richmond.  Idk if it's a dry slot or what, but it looks like Danville / Martinsville area gets walloped, but east of there gets nothing. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2021010718&fh=1

It’s weird how it’s doing that. Once you go east of Danville it’s basically nothing 

8 minutes ago, benjammin said:

I read on the SE board that the 18Z Nam finally involves VA more but haven't seen a map or how far north that really means. 

Nothing really changed. Again once the precip gets close to us it just dries up. According to 18z 3K NAM you have to go to Danville to get any snow. Low in Maine must be pretty strong because whatever moisture tries to get us just dries up. I will say though the radar looks nothing like what the NAM depicts it should look like. Probably doesn’t mean much but we’ll see 

10 minutes ago, Sernest14 said:

Need this storm to move just a hair quicker and beat the low coming down into Maine

Yes. That low in Maine is crushing it, literally 

Precip field just hits a wall and fades once it gets to about about the VA/NC border on most models now 

10 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said:

Ha ha. . It does look more north and a bit better put togethet but again it's all gonna be where the heavy band sets up and what makes it past  the mountains/dry air.. 

Radar hallucinations till then...

I agree. It looks better on radar now than what the models have but we’ll see how the precip field shapes up when it gets here 

Waiting to see what the 12z suite says before I give up. The 12z 3K NAM says no though, maybe a quick burst of snow. Seems like that once the precip reaches our area it just wants to fade away 

11 minutes ago, Sernest14 said:

Well the Nam crapped the bed on the 0z runs.  VA pretty much shut out even at the NC border for south central.  Solid run if your in Hampton roads towards Virginia Beach.  Nice heavy dumping for a little on the tail end

Well onto the next one 

11 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said:

The 18z 3k NAM, at range, is about to wallop southern VA and metro richmond.  The 00z run should be interesting.  

Agree. If it’s still showing that on the 00z run then I’ll start to get a little excited