RDRY

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You’d think just one other model would be in it’s camp...just one. But nope. 

Euro might be the closest?

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Not to often that can be said...but Don’t count those chickens just yet...

I'm in the Berks for this one.

GFS way south, NAM way north and everything in between -- New York City is always sitting pretty.

Northeast winter storm forecasting is just brutal. What a humbling profession.

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

NYC crowd approves of GFS

Banding at 60 not as robust for them.

Lost maybe a few hours of that norlun feature from 18z, which is a must for higher totals in western MA.

RGEM is an absurd weather model -- it had its 15 minutes of fame several winters back, and now resides in Snookyville. This low is not driving heavy precip halfway through Vermont and New Hampshire.

I wonder if it would be preferable to have super-accurate forecast models (say, 5-day forecasts being as reliable as current 1-day forecasts). Definitely be a lot fewer posts here.

Heh. Baby steps on the GFS. That's just how it rolls.

Precip hangs on several hours longer on the 12k compared to 6z -- almost looks like a norlun trough.

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Same. Not sure how you can go with a model that is an extreme outlier, not to mention its newer counterpart is in the main camp.

Are you guys doing a map for SCTWX?

The para is the upgraded GFS? Seems very erratic.

Of the 4 main globals, I assume Euro verification is still #1. Which one is 2nd?

Not surprised. GFS does this -- goes off on its own and holds for several runs. It's always possible it has the better read on this storm, but it's not likely. The ICON in its corner like Jack the Ripper as the cutman.

Nitpicking the end of a 12k NAM run, but it's weird that the low doesn't deepen (996) between 78 and 84 hours.

Classic GFS at this range. It goes rogue and holds its solution for several runs before joining the party.

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

00z icon is crazy amped. Getting big banding into dendrite land. 

Ukie running late..it was pretty flat at 12z and was hoping to see if it trended north at all at 00z, but I’m not waiting up for it any longer. Euro can wait 4+ days out. 

Does the ICON have any known biases? To my very untrained eye, it just always seems to be erratic.

GFS has about the same low position approaching Jersey. But the high wins the battle with the weaker system.

12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What a set up for the mid-Atlantic and SNE... that shortwave running into a 1036mb high north of Montreal.

Strong shortwave -- check

Arctic high + block -- check

Gulf moisture -- check

Atlantic moisture -- check

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Winter storm flynn

Steve Cohen and a mid-December nor'easter. Spoiled.

Trough sharpened up at 102. Makes the difference.

Alrighty then.

23 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Be careful, some of our "friends" to the north would gladly see us all rain so that they can cash in. Gotta be vigilant around here. Snow is serious bidness.  

Just now, weathafella said:

Definitely Boxing Day.  You should have seen Tip's melt!  I ended up getting into the Boston band and got 18 inches but not far from me got screwed.  I'm not sure Jan 96 qualifies.  I was on the west coast in 1983 so I can't comment.

March '93 would have been the reigning king if it could have nudged another 100 miles east. As it was, craziest storm conditions I've ever seen.

11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I thought that storm just didn't gain enough latitude for north of the Pike to get the huge totals.  But I loved that storm.  Snowed on a deep pack.

Jan '96, Feb '83 and Boxing Day -- Queens top 3.