MAG5035

Looks like some of the better enhanced stuff is even making it all the way up towards Williamsport. The whole Sus Valley from there down appears to be getting into the best rates of this event currently. Looking at LWX radar some of the really heavy stuff is traversing the Mason-Dixon and bottom tier of PA counties (Cashtown and Bubbler) and especially just below in northern MD. This should catch everyone else down below MDT towards York/Lancaster the next couple hours. I think it could be a legit threat Sunday morning simply because we’ll have pack down and the coldest temps of the season on the lead up to Sat Night/Sun Morning. If there’s some rad cooling Sat Night before clouds move in it could be well below freezing. It doesn’t look like a big QPF producer but it doesn’t have to be to make for some really icy roads in that kind of scenario. Def something to keep an eye on once we get through the current event. The actual warm-up on the surface will probably be brief as well, with a frontal passage and reinforcement of cold by Sunday evening. After that it appears we have a stable pattern of western ridge/eastern trough and we’ll have to keep an eye on any shortwaves that eventually materialize.

At 2” here now, moderate rates.

Measured about 1.3” 10-15 minutes ago, but coming down pretty heavily now. Radar looks like a heavier band is setting up overhead at least for the time being.

Snow has begun fast. Steady moderate, 29ºF

Yea it’s looking way better here than even yesterday, plus you guys up there should at least get to 2” or so I think. I’m expecting 3-4” here. Still expecting the real good stuff to be just south but we’ll see.

Here was the 12z HREF today, CTP seems to utilize this pretty heavily and would appear to support the expansion of advisories this afternoon, among the other guidance as well. I think this only runs 12 and 0z. I think warning totals have a chance of happening in a stripe, likely across the southern tier. A more enhanced band could present even a 15-18:1 type ratio. So, I think it could really pile up especially in the Laurel’s and even some of the ridges of Bedford/Fulton/Franklin (6-8”) type if we get the rates and this could carry over into the LSV as well (5-6”). Otherwise this looks like it should be a 2-5” for most of the subforum.

30ºF and cloudy here. It’s got the look and feel outside.

Advisories have been expanded deeper into central PA

Where’s our new play by play guru @Cashtown_Coop? Haha 0z Euro This has really come back around nicely for the subforum, with even our IPT folks in the mix for the couple inches now on Euro and some other guidance.

That was one thing that really stuck out to me this week regarding this system, the potential for nice ratios with a nice cold column. Your post really details that nicely This really has went the classic snowstorm route in terms of forecasting. First in the mid-range everything sees it except the GFS, then the GFS finally sees it and everything goes south for a couple days. And now inside 48 hrs the QPF and northern edge has been coming right back up.

It does have the wave in similar fashion to the other guidance, fairly weak surface low reflection. I mean for the 48hr HRRR it’s nothing completely outlandish. For the composite reflectivity queens hahaha

Some folks in that southern portion of that subforum region are having a case of this because of the snowstorm. From what I understand there are still a lot of people stranded on I-95 below DC in the Fredericksburg area (including VA US Sen Tim Kaine) as of at least earlier today and I believe the stretch between Dumfries and Ruther Glen (between Fredericksburg and Richmond) is still closed. Those double digit top end amounts the models zeroed in on the last couple days did end up coming to fruition and considering how fast it probably came down I couldn’t imagine trying to navigate that stretch of 95 during it. https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/transportation/never-seen-anything-like-it-drivers-stranded-for-15-hours-on-i-95-in-virginia/2926464/ https://www.foxnews.com/us/virginia-i-95-winter-storm-traffic-jam-latest-updates https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/04/weather/winter-weather-tuesday/index.html

Euro tightened northern extent up vs 18z. Looks pretty similar to the Canadian while the GFS finally has it and looks like it has the best northern extent of the 0z ops. Gotta love the mid-range haha. QPF overall really isn’t that impressive at the moment but we do have the wave on all guidance now. As I said before, we should have high ratios with this event in our area. Prob would only take 3-4 tenths to get a warning swath going (in other words just a modest bump in overall QPF) 0z vs 18z Euro (2+ does resume in New England but can only do out to 84 comparing with 18z 90hr)

Me too. I saw a Facebook friend post 2 tickets for sale several days ago for a really reasonable price and I should’ve jumped on it. It’s been awhile since I’ve went and I’ve only ever been to 5 Steelers games (4-1 haha) but they were some of the great games. 2005 regular season Pit vs NE (ended with Vinatieri game winner), the 05-06 divisional round vs the Colts at Indy (still craziest game I ever saw in person), 06 regular season vs Chiefs, the 2007 MNF blowout vs Baltimore (one of Ben’s perfect games), and the last one seeing them punch their ticket to the Super Bowl vs the Jets in the 10-11 AFC title game. That was definitely the coldest one being in the single digits most of the game. I did get this picture of the city on the long walk back to the car.

Lol all this Miller A/B talk is fun but I’m sitting here wondering why that EC run popped a low on the coast so quickly way in front of the primary wave.

Big western ridge too. Boise, ID is the often referenced point for having the western ridge axis through for C-PA snowstorms and it sure looks like a case of one there. This is the amplification we needed for today’s storm.

12z Euro Ensemble >3” probs. Pretty decent, and dead center on PA swath wise.

Euro didn’t really even have all that much QPF either. The 10:1 DC area vs LSV was more like a 4-6” vs 2-4” event. That’s another thing to keep an eye on is the QPF aspect. Last night’s Euro was one of the biggest QPF runs despite having decent but not heavy events on some of the other runs. I could see this going either way, being a run of the mill quick hitting wave of snow or a more significant widespread event that merits a NESIS ranking. I just don’t buy the GFS non-event, but yea I sure would feel alot better if it got on board soon lol. Still in the mid-range too, which always has these shenanigans. It’s not that far out though really being at D4. We’ll probably be able to have some hot NAM takes this evening.

Yea that looks like the 10:1 map which shows a bit heavier QPF down there. I”m using Kuchera for this without really worrying about inflated totals here because if this event occurs in non-GFS fashion it is going to be a cold storm in PA and the column looks great for good ratios for us. Harrisburg has 4.3” on Kuchera with 0.29 QPF (just under 15:1). Just looking roughly at the maps at different levels, 850 temps are -6 to -8ºC (falling) and 700mb temps across PA are a degree or two either side of -15ºC (inside the ideal -10 to -20ºC range for the snow growth layer). So with that I would say a ratio like that in C-PA is completely reasonable. Not to mention climo for C-PA in January for snow ratios is roughly 12-13:1 and this looks like an actual January type snow event. My personal take is the GFS is having trouble popping the wave with the cold airmass in place and presenting it’s tried and true SE bias of the last x number of years/decades. The set up and shortwave is there at 500mb like everything else and I really don’t see a huge difference other than maybe the GFS is somewhat less robust with the shortwave.. maybe. There’s a much better defined ridge out west for this than for today’s event, so with more amp in the pattern I really think something’s going to pop like what the Euro/Canadian and ensembles (even the GEFS to a degree) have been already been fairly solid on the last couple days. The immediately preceding shortwave over the Lakes that sets this up with the cold and etc probably takes the cutter option away and big question is placement of the best snowfall. Even if it did put the best precip in the 95 corridor again, this one should be more expansive with the shield.

Okay, I got maps loading now. C,mon guys.. you make it sound like PA got blanked out. What part of that suggests “Mid-Atlantic special”?

I can’t get anything on Weatherbell to load up model wise. Did the weenies crash it? Lol

Boy that’s a brutal cutoff looking at the cameras going up 270 from the beltway. Nothing on the ground in Frederick.

Best run yet of the Euro with the 1/7 storm, really upped the totals. Like I mentioned last night this event is going to be cold on the snowy side. Little mixing at all in PA, looked mostly relegated to far SE PA (Philly). Tennessee Valley-Delmarva transfer. I don’t understand why folks keep asking “where this storm has gone”. Good thing we’re not the Mid-Atlantic forum, someone would say go look for yourself lol. **Edit to add on 0z Euro ensemble stuff as well. Also, I’m not saying the GFS op is wrong or anything, but again….it’s literally the only thing that doesn’t snow on us with this the last several runs. Even the 0z GEFS has half decent 1”+ probs for PA.

It is kinda brutal to watch this evolve. The surface low goes from GA through the interior Carolinas to near VA Beach which is often workable for a good portion of the subforum. It’s a great shortwave but a tight system and there’s not enough amp in the pattern to bring it up the coast some or northern branch interaction digging into it to draw a much broader precip shield.

0z NAM starting… gonna be the most important model run of our lives coming haha. I need to nail down how thick the cirrus deck is gonna be here tomorrow.