ajr

Can’t remember the last time there was a signal like this in early December - it’s nice to see 

Just now, griteater said:

Looks like the 18z run is going to be quite wintry on Dec 8th.  Low in Louisiana and 1040+ high over upper midwest

And a more amped PV in SE Canada 

5 minutes ago, Thor said:

Positive sharp Wake County gradient sign

2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

The EPS looked great to me!?

I only saw the mean... looks like individual members are interesting though!

6z GEFS favoring a southern NC plains track with our d8/9 system (and cold air is already cleared out by the time the LP comes around). EPS has the system but also too warm for anything interesting. Still lots of run-to-run variability though.

The past two runs of the GFS have a potentially interesting setup around Dec 5

GFS showing something around 11/30 and 12/3.. something to keep an eye on at least

Despite the cold rain in our area, hard not to get excited at the overall pattern... these kinds of storms would be nice hits for our area come late D into JF. 

No one in wake county look at the 18z ICON..

25 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

The soundings don't really support snow until lunch/afternoon and that's when the system is moving out...  Cold rain until the cold air is established at which point most of the QPF is gone.  

I should clarify this is for the Raleigh area.

...and it will always switch over later than expected

Meanwhile HRRR is making things interesting for RDU...

9 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

A few other EPS means: 

Davidson: 2.6"
Lexington: 3"
Asheboro: 3.7"
Raleigh: 2.5"
CLT: 2.8"
 

I just don’t see how Raleigh’s temp profile supports anything the models are spitting out 

11 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Can anyone vouch for the accuracy of this tool on pivotal?

I remember that tool (among others) being an epic bust last January.