ajr

2 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Really sucks! Based on short term models thought this one would be the one finally Charlotte falls on the good luck side of. Hard to argue with GSP at this point but maybe some surprises are still in store for when the really heavy stuff moves in.

Well the models verbatim are calling for some additional cooling

CC is well into Chatham county about to get to Pittsboro

CC radar creeping up on Wake/Chatham counties...

Is NC State going to launch any soundings tonight?

49 minutes ago, burgertime said:

RDU per the Hi-Res NAM would get around a foot of snow before changing over to sleet just based on QPF and p-type maps. 

Where are you seeing that? To me this looks like a rain sounding?

30 minutes ago, griteater said:

Upper level divergence on the GFS....this is what the big ones look like

Looking back on the Jan 2018 storm thread you posted something similar.. hopefully an auspicious sign

Here’s Eric Webb’s forecast.. Seems reasonable

The NAM is still really concerning for central NC... I just don’t see how we get the snowfall amounts RAH is predicting. Ice? Yes, unfortunately. It’s a good reminder for us that in some of our “bust” events (Jan 2017 for example) the NAM has been pretty spot on with sniffing out the warm nose that greatly degrade snow totals and accumulations. The warm nose forecasted by the NAM here is specifically mentioned in RAH discussion this morning. For central NC I think it’ll come down to observations at this point and how CAD develops, etc.

5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The Nam is pretty warm at 33.. Still rain for CLT Switches to sleet/snow at 36

Definitely warmer... the HP up north has retreated some

3 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Can you gives us the SREF sloppy mean for RDU?

SREF favors rain for RDU at almost all time points

6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Better not.  At 0z you will wish you had kept it!

Hmm.. why is RAH upping totals? Surely they know global eye-candy at this range isn’t that helpful..

Sorry I’m catching up here, but what are we making of this terrible 18z NAM run? We tossing?

Just now, CentralNC said:

January 2000?

You probably know better than I do but I thought that was more of a QPF overperform vs temps 

1 minute ago, GreensboroWx said:

Based on what I have seen with the overnight runs, I think it might be a bit conservative.

I’ll feel better about this if the NAM keeps improving.. the sting of Jan 2017 is still there. I can’t think of a storm where cold overperfromed models in the RDU area..

WRAL snowfall map - seems bullish to me

6 minutes ago, pbrown85 said:

Does anyone have any theories as to why the GFS FV3 gives so much more with it's winter output than the other models so far?

It’s powered by the tears of snow weenies - gotta stock up before it goes live in January. A marvel of modern engineering, really.

Fwiw

2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

nam warmer than 06z. snow line well north.

Sleet fest!

7 minutes ago, griteater said:

Thicknesses (and column temps) are a tick cooler thru the Carolinas on this run of the NAM....500mb is quite similar thru 57

Good catch.. you can see this at the 850 level when it starts cooling as precip develops

https://imgur.com/gallery/kn7vwoOp

The cold air (including up north near the PV) is taking a jog back north the past few NAM runs..

5 minutes ago, Cornsnow said:

I think tonight's and tomorrow mornings runs will be key here. Pieces finally starting to get sampled.

As others have mentioned most data (someone else said “99%”) fed into models are from satellites.

I went through the big Jan 2017 bust thread, and recurring theme was keep an eye on the NAM and then HRRR for temp profiles... globals don’t have the resolution to sort out in detail factors like CAD.