ajr

2 minutes ago, HKY1894 said:

this is big increase compared to 0z


.

I’m used to seeing a snow map like that on just ONE ensemble member and us hoping for that... never the mean. Have we ever had a GEFS mean that nice 5 days out?

Slightly faster but weaker low.. slightly colder at the 850 level through hr 90

Slightly weaker southern wave, slightly colder through hr 66 on the 6z FV3

3 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

For what it's worth, the 6z NAM is much colder then the 0z/6z GFS (at hour 84) with the push of surface dew points. CAD being under-modeled?  

That’s good to hear - in the past few years the NAM has handled temps better than globals (Jan 2017 comes to mind)

The trend in temps on the Euro is worrying... our cold air is moving out before the storm hits

4 minutes ago, griteater said:

EPS Mean Snow

Unreal that the EPS mean is 10 inches for parts of central NC more than a few days out from the system

18z FV3 looks about the same through hr 90

Might be premature, but just ordered a sled for my son 

12 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Is it just me or is the FV3 keeps trending colder each run

Not just you - you can see the cold air from Canada slowly making it further into CONUS at the 850 level

5 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

I was supposed to go to banner elk for an airbnb this coming wknd lol.

Sounds like perfect timing

18z GEFS is going to be more surpressed it looks

All caveats aside, when is the last time we’ve seen such a consistently modeled powerful winter storm modeled this far out?

the 12z EURO is taking the low off the GA coast with plenty of cold air above

17 minutes ago, griteater said:

My own opinion is that the GFS isn't nearly cold enough at the sfc if we get this setup in the end.  This is a sick cold air damming setup here

 

Agree.. looking at sounding at hr 180 verbatim when the low is approaching KILM, you can see the warm nose clearly.. then looking at the winds at the 850mb level, you can see the SE flow we don't want.

1 minute ago, WidreMann said:

Shit run for central NC. No snow, just rain by the time it gets here.

I think it's way too early to draw up the freezing lines - certainly we're not favored here, but it's not a bad look yet

FV3 is nice, temperature outputs still seem strange.. with the PV in SE Canada and a 1035+ HP just to the north of us it seems temps should be lower than modeled

2 minutes ago, packfan98 said:

Yep!  The low tracked pretty much due east instead of cutting.  Many ensembles have had a similar look. Here's the overblown clown map:

Looks to me like it spins off another low?

Just now, griteater said:

12z GFS looks pretty terrible 

Looks like the cold air is already mostly gone by the time the storm shows up

Don't think this run is going to cut it -- looks like the northern and southern wave are interacting more coming in from the Pacific/SW Canada around hr 102. Edit: Nevermind, I think I'm wrong... this could be good...  

12z GEFS looks better with the track of the low -- HP up north is a little sketchy though

Looks icy as modeled - CAD at the surface with SE winds at the 850 level when precipitation is building

GEFS overall with positive low level pressure trends (and a nice banana high):

EPS also supporting a better track:

Not a lot of support in the GEFS for the op run:

1 minute ago, Thor said:

The best kind of fake news