ajr

The 12z GFS/GEFS/FV3 suite is good for NC/SC around March 4-6... starting to show something promising with consistency.

850 level looks cold enough

7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

50-100 miles NW over two days.  When does that not happen? Lol. If I was in downeast, Shaggy, and weatherNc country, I’d be super excited!  Maybe even eastern Wake could end up picking up a sprinkle.

I really think this may be an RDU-FAY special

From what I saw posted elsewhere, 6z EPS looks even better than 0z for Carolina folks. Maybe this isn’t a drill folks!

18z GFS took a nice step in our favor for 1/20 - looks like maybe less interaction with the northern energy keeping the system a little further south?

Light sleet just started up in Chapel Hill -- random surprise when I opened the door just now

Edit: Already over

Just for fun, the 12z FV3 has about the mother of all snowstorms out in fantasy land around hours 324-348 -- spots of 2"+ QPF and all snow through SE NC into SC.

12z ICON drops about 0.5" of ice around RDU/IGX

18z GEFS warmed up a little and seems to like the Miller B/slider pattern with transition north of Savannah

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

12z GFS looks like it will be a little further north from 6z ... looks stronger. 

Earlier phase too it looks like - MA should be happy

1 minute ago, CaryWx said:

Where's that 850 line ajr refers to lining up?

Verbatim looks to be around the northern border counties on the GFS -- obviously it's going to move around a bunch the next few days

That's a CAD signature if I ever saw one (shame the 850s are still warm though)

GFS turned into a southern slider.. looks like mainly driven by the jetstream flattening out and good confluence up north. Hopefully not a blip and trends continue for NC/SC

Crankywxguy’s blog has some helpful info — essentially it’ll all come down to how the waves phase and progress.. the northern pacific is complex right now with multiple waves/interactions. May be best to wait a few days for the pieces to develop before going all-in one way or another.

4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

I don’t remember how far out during the tracking of the Dec storm it was, but I think a few model runs showed miller B options, before finally honing in on the miller A track

Yep - Miller A didn’t show up until a few days before if I remember correctly.

6z FV3 fairly similar to the GFS

6z GFS is an apps runner still - looks like the northern stream energy drags the whole system north with a big phase over New York into New England

The 0z euro held steady with snow (light mainly) for CLT to RDU and points north and west 

Random but why is the GFS still active? I thought it was supposed to change to the FV3 by now?

12z FV3 with several interesting possibilities..

I suppose it may be quiet here for a little while..

Euro says it’s on!

1 minute ago, NCBlizzard said:

It has been consistent in showing that which is encouraging. I noticed the 6z NAM also wanted to shift the transition zone back south after briefly pushing it northward.

The rates are amazing right now!

Looks like snow is building behind the ice band

Really nice snowfall around Duke Hospital - a little more than an inch on the ground and treated roads are snowed over.