ajr
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Everything posted by ajr
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Where are you seeing that? To me this looks like a rain sounding?
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Looking back on the Jan 2018 storm thread you posted something similar.. hopefully an auspicious sign
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Here’s Eric Webb’s forecast.. Seems reasonable
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The NAM is still really concerning for central NC... I just don’t see how we get the snowfall amounts RAH is predicting. Ice? Yes, unfortunately. It’s a good reminder for us that in some of our “bust” events (Jan 2017 for example) the NAM has been pretty spot on with sniffing out the warm nose that greatly degrade snow totals and accumulations. The warm nose forecasted by the NAM here is specifically mentioned in RAH discussion this morning. For central NC I think it’ll come down to observations at this point and how CAD develops, etc.
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Definitely warmer... the HP up north has retreated some
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SREF favors rain for RDU at almost all time points
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Hmm.. why is RAH upping totals? Surely they know global eye-candy at this range isn’t that helpful..
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Sorry I’m catching up here, but what are we making of this terrible 18z NAM run? We tossing?
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You probably know better than I do but I thought that was more of a QPF overperform vs temps
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I’ll feel better about this if the NAM keeps improving.. the sting of Jan 2017 is still there. I can’t think of a storm where cold overperfromed models in the RDU area..
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WRAL snowfall map - seems bullish to me
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It’s powered by the tears of snow weenies - gotta stock up before it goes live in January. A marvel of modern engineering, really.
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Fwiw
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Sleet fest!
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Good catch.. you can see this at the 850 level when it starts cooling as precip develops https://imgur.com/gallery/kn7vwoOp
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The cold air (including up north near the PV) is taking a jog back north the past few NAM runs..
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As others have mentioned most data (someone else said “99%”) fed into models are from satellites.
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I went through the big Jan 2017 bust thread, and recurring theme was keep an eye on the NAM and then HRRR for temp profiles... globals don’t have the resolution to sort out in detail factors like CAD.
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Game on!
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Just FYI Cobb method via Bufkit thinks we're mostly rain/snow mix and only gives about 2" of snow to RDU: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=krdu
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Look at GEFS plumes for KRDU for the most recent 00z run and a day prior, huge increase in the probability of snow (vs rain): 12/5 00z: 12/6 00z:
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From RAH this morning: Overall reads as more bullish compared to prior ("It's too early for specific amounts, but an inch or two is not out of the question in the Triad region, with a non-zero chance of greater amounts.") - I'm not sure what it means to be "too cute with any snow amounts" though.
