ajr
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About ajr
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Where are you seeing that? To me this looks like a rain sounding?
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Looking back on the Jan 2018 storm thread you posted something similar.. hopefully an auspicious sign
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Here’s Eric Webb’s forecast.. Seems reasonable
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The NAM is still really concerning for central NC... I just don’t see how we get the snowfall amounts RAH is predicting. Ice? Yes, unfortunately. It’s a good reminder for us that in some of our “bust” events (Jan 2017 for example) the NAM has been pretty spot on with sniffing out the warm nose that greatly degrade snow totals and accumulations. The warm nose forecasted by the NAM here is specifically mentioned in RAH discussion this morning. For central NC I think it’ll come down to observations at this point and how CAD develops, etc.
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Definitely warmer... the HP up north has retreated some
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SREF favors rain for RDU at almost all time points
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Hmm.. why is RAH upping totals? Surely they know global eye-candy at this range isn’t that helpful..
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Sorry I’m catching up here, but what are we making of this terrible 18z NAM run? We tossing?
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You probably know better than I do but I thought that was more of a QPF overperform vs temps
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I’ll feel better about this if the NAM keeps improving.. the sting of Jan 2017 is still there. I can’t think of a storm where cold overperfromed models in the RDU area..
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WRAL snowfall map - seems bullish to me
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It’s powered by the tears of snow weenies - gotta stock up before it goes live in January. A marvel of modern engineering, really.
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Fwiw
