STILL N OF PIKE

Heading to Nantucket in 10 days. Just don’t want low 60’s and rain/fog

Ok, so that car moves...fun

@wxeyeNHis that mustang the GT version

No . I still see a lot of downside risk from liquidation potential and very little upside with fed raising rates Hedge funds are probably targeting weaker protocols that have taken out large loans they had no business taking on .. and they are hunting them and trying to liquidate them and if they can there could be rapid Further falls in Ether and BTC Michael Saylor is not a model of risk management to follow But hey he’s got balls.

The elephant in the room is the system is sick , has been for over a decade and they don’t have the tools to fix the supply side inflation problems anyway . But , they can’t say that . They / We need War in Ukraine to end to get rid of commodity bubble prices that have been piggybacking the Pinched supply of gas/ wheat etc And then we NEED the deflationary forces of efficient global supply chains to be restored to bring down the Covid supply side inflation that China has lengthened with their Zero Covid Policy nonsense. Fed has zero influence on those Major factors. Also fed playbook for last 15 years has been CUT rates , boost asset prices (401k/ houses ) to keep consumers feeling confident and spending . Our debt is thru the roof so interest rates need to be kept low to service it and or roll it over . Raise rates makes things Worse . They need those external things to be solved , Then since they are no longer handing out 2k stimmy checks inflation will come down to a point where they can kick the can and cut rates again . There is zero evidence of any other medium to long term solutions in such a debt ridden system dependent on consumption and elevated asset prices .

But flakes likely fly Saturday

Wen SVR outbreak

Anyone believe in Tatum and Celtics tonite

Market rally from yesterday’s fed decision to raise rates has rolled over completely this am. You can’t raise rates or tighten policy in a system that has been on central bank zero interest rate life support since 2008. I assume most intelligent folks on tv just can’t speak the truth and don’t want to spread “Fud” but it’s sort of they don’t have any other tools and they are gonna raise rates till something blows up and then print to respond to that crisis . The plan is such a loser , That is raise rates to slow demand to bring down inflation since they can’t (fix the supply side issues) print oil or wheat or cheap houses or cheap healthcare. All they are really doing is unwinding stock gains, raising unemployment (soon) and reversing some housing price gains. They must be think tanking and praying for a existential threat to take the blame from This feeble current plan where they actually can’t give the medicine to the market they did in 1980 simply because the debt construct 42 years later can’t stay solvent thru even a fraction of the interest rate rises We had then ( and the market knows this) . Best path forward is Commodity excess unwinds as something is forced in Ukraine, China is pressured to end zero Covid , and then the fed prints again and kicks the can. *If the deflationary Forces of efficient supply chains can be restored (which should also unwind commodity speculation) you would see inflation as measured by CPI fall quickly on year over year basis and then the fed could do back to QE , and supporting asset prices at levels necessary to keep a sick system alive*^ . There is not a better less painful choice . Unless it’s been determined the current global monetary system with US on top is best to be shelved and is no longer stable enough , in which case the fed plan risks accomplishing that thru crisis and we would enter a period Beyond a recession, a period of uncertainty and trouble that has occurred when a leading world power loses the reserve currency as well as the global system built around that. It’s really not some far off idea, regardless If it’s depressing .

0z nam has some snow squalls for Extreme N NH Saturday Am. Looks like the Connecticut lakes region is in play .

If we get upper 50’s , we will get the typical DIT capitulation post “congrats to all those who wanted cold wx in summer “

The subtle art of hedging seems like 75-80 has sailed

Scooter may need a wellness check

Celsius Crypto network froze all withdrawals last nite and they seem like it will be hard for them to regroup. Crypto seemed to do well to capitalize on the growing distrust in financial institutions and get younger folks investing in the crypto ecosystem..which has a lack of oversight , rampant fraud and little jurisdiction to go after “fraud” and much less consumer protections Bond markets are getting crushed in euro zone and US in premarket trading and stocks are down significantly prior to the opening bell as well. Has to be lots of margin calls out there .

It will be interesting to see what sort of pivot occurs minus a wide spread crisis that requires money printing to respond to . Could be a very wide rounding pivot . First they Pause , and become data “dependent” and then i could see stocks responding much faster than crypto . Unless a new crisis prompts rampant rate cut back to zero and QE (which always seems to stoke massive financial speculation) I’m not sure If a pivot from fed to a pause will do much for crypto

I certainly didn’t see the metrics that spell that out . 28K has been a high volume buying level in way up and it was defended for a while .

No shock Tide going out And, barely any buyers Btc finally lost 28k

As usual

Slow greens

Give it time

F’N Celtics . I just am not as impressed with Tatum as a *“super star In the big moment* as others . Some shine brightest in the biggest moment and he seems rather good , but not a elite finisher. Doesn’t have that ice in his veins , could have put away the series tonite but couldn’t aggressively attack the rim.

Hope everyone stayed safe

So, more of the same ...

18z gfs sure looked ...Not hot I like the last frame where -.5c 850 were over Nova Scotia on June 22

Ya the ocean is freezing in New England. Couple exceptions like S coast but still not what anyone not deprived would call comfy Water temp in Florida is perfect this time of year . Assuming the sea lice and the man o wars Aren’t around the water can be paradise