DC2Winston

Very light snow, small flakes near in Winston - Statford/Hanes Mall area - just started.

Just some fuzzy overcast still in Winston. Breezy. 

Is it just a coincidence that current SE regional radar mosaic mirrors the modeling - showing the lee side precip shadowing in NW piedmont? 

I mean it looks just like the total QPF maps.

Just now, CentralNC said:

Robert just posted on FB what I already suspected.  Downslope screw zone here.

Can you link the post?  Thanks 

39/26 - dew point trying to creep up.  Just some virga overhead.

18 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

We got down to 38 and are already up to 45. I'm not going to sugarcoat it, that's not a good place to be with precip set to move in in the next 3 hours. Good news is DP's have FINALLY tanked into the 20's. That was a painful fall but they are crashing with the NE wind. I'm not model watching anymore they will bounce around with their clown maps until the very end but temp wise, we are running a couple degrees above where the globals (and NAM) had us yesterday and are in line with the HRRR. I did not think we'd exceed 41-42 today. Radar looks very NAM-like which is good but I am worried about folks west of the influence of the coastal. West of the Triangle may have more precip issues than we thought as even the NAM has trended more to the globals on that western cutoff. Radar watching will be the only way to confirm that. I would hit the panic button if precip is not gaining more of a WSW to ENE movement and pushing up into the Triad area by lunchtime. I like my forecast from yesterday and am sticking to it. I think RDU is a lock for 2-3 in and the coastal plain looks to be good for 4+ in. If we had better temps (as always) I think Max snow potential would be doubled at least but I know we will waste at least 0.25" here on wetbulbing and white rain. CLT-Upstate, I still don't think anyone outside of elevation will see any accumulation. Just not those areas' storm, unfortunately.

Thanks, I agree.  I'm remembering the over-running orientation from the December 2018 big storm.  Definitely had a WSW to ENE movement.  Our air is super dry here now.

Maybe I'll storm chase to Rocky Mount or Greenville 

Were dew points modeled to drop this low in the Triad area?  I'm seeing lots of low 20's...

I understand that helps a quick changeover to snow - but isn't it a double-edge sword with lower QPF and accumulation?

38/24 downtown Winston Salem. Cloudy

Can anyone remember a really crazy snowfall gradient, within one county, in the Piedmont/Triad area?

Looking at the latest NAM maps, if to verify, would be some wild cutoffs somewhere near Forsyth or Guilford county...

Thanks

10 minutes ago, eyewall said:

As of now I think a 1-2 inch event would be about the best the Triangle would pull from this. Drier air with the high position will be a concern. I think there will be some in the lee of the mountains that get shafted somewhat by downsloping.

Would you include the Triad as part of the lee side in this setup?  Or a bit further West in the true foothills...

9 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Thankful that the severe threat stayed south of my area , Temps still in the 40s here , it's a rough day in North Carolina though..

We have been right on the edge of the front all day.  We were about 60 degrees in Winston until 4am or so, then dropped to mid 40's in less than 2 hours.  Climbed just slightly up to around 49-50 degrees just in the last hour.  Amazing how the most severe cells came right up just to our south, less than 10 miles, then pushed east.  Forsyth County was actually tornado warned earlier but the radar indicated rotation was JUST south in Davie County.  Closest lighting strike though was less than 2 miles, lots of thunder today.  Dangerous day but extremely interesting to learn from as a novice. 

3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Yeah, and there's a chance it won't push north lessening the severe threat. Kinda interesting how the precip is back-building along the front

I'm always impressed by the cold-air wedge east of Apps.  Always seems to over-perform and hang longer than modeled.  This was a tough one to nail down W-E orientation setup...

Crazy temperature gradient between Winston-Salem/Greensboro and as close by as Asheboro area.  Mid 40s here in Winston and hovering 60 only 20 miles away.  Just another ingredient we don't need in the Piedmont...

Ok now we got some white rain here. 60/40 R/S mix I’d say. Nice to see a little snow TV 

Just light rain in Winston downtown...

22 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

I used to be a big golfer before kids, so I can understand this, BUT, its been plenty warm enough for golf. In fact cool weather is way better for golf in my book.  The problem the past couple winters has been rain, not cold. And there'll be plenty of heat later on. I say bring on as much cold as we can get and hopefully some frozen please. 

In years past I would say we have until the first week of March but that doesn't seem to be the case anymore. Still hoping to see a better pattern emerge for Feb. 

Agreed. The problem really hasn’t been cold of course, just wet! Our club has good drainage and still been sloppy, cart path only. 

Every year about this time I’m torn between wanting big snowstorm and warm enough to golf. The struggle is real. At least some mood flakes would be nice. 

Driving from Winston Salem to DC this morning, going to take 29 route: Greensboro-Lynchburg-Charlottesville-DC. Expecting to see different light precip types. Will try to mPing and post obs. Flizzard here at the moment. 

Let’s have this thing exist at D4 range. Then I’m in. 

Looking at CC on doppler, first time I ever remember being south of the west to east oriented sleet line...and its snow falling. Back and forth snow/sleet but super interesting. Using KFCX site and location is downtown Winston-Salem. 

All three falling at once in Winston near downtown. Even mix id say. Slushy on car tops just a little

Might go snow chasing northbound from Winston on Weds AM. Figure I’ll need at least 50-60 miles. 

10 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Don’t get my started on the nuances between my climo in Montclair vs the the western PWC crew lol

I lived in Montclair 92-97. Parents were there until 2015. Was always amazed with difference in snow totals and p-type between there and even Manassas, let alone further towards Haymarket/Gainesville. Driving up and down 234 conditions would change so fast. 

Well, back edge of precip entering Forsyth county. No flakes in Winston, just wet and low 40s. 

Pretty cool shot though on LWX CC radar in Washington DC. R/S line moving NW to SE as we speak across the city. 

Sticking with over/under of just a trace at KGSO. Leaning the under. Like the Super Bowl  (31-21)