zinski1990

Cant wait for this storm to be over. It's crazy how the short range and hi res models plus nam are inconsistent now closer we get. One of those surprise storms where something not on the models will happen now cast events

Just now, Jackstraw said:

Yeah I've been worried about those 850's for a few days now. With a weaker ridge and the surface low amping up on the models the last 5 days it puts Central In/I70 back where we usually are with these things.  The nose of that low level jet is right on my doorstep as modeled right now.  I69 and points east look better to cash in on any phasing.  We're gonna miss out on the bulk of any Fgen snows.  Things are still a bit up in the air though.  This little Pied Piper wave cut about 3 or 4 inches off the existing snowpack so hopefully we all can get a good 6 inch topper to clean it up.  Then we gotta worry about a real potential rainer before the ice box sets in next week.

It's an interesting call for us in Indy area. We really need a big storm bad. Kind of bummed feeling good about this all week for it to turn into this typical I70 game again 

1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

 

Let's just say the 18z run had a 997mb SLP in N. AL at one point, which was actually south of 12z run at that time.

makes no sense lol it better get fixed by 0z runs 

GFS looking better. So glad to see

much better run good to see

They look better than last night. I get The mid range gfs op gaffes that always happens. The NAM in long range lol we all know it was comical. EURO and Canadian I think have been most consistent models. 

Funny because the low is that far south yet still has the same area showing precip

starting a thread a week before a storm? Before another big storm? That's bold lol

5 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Agreed, the shift north is minor at best. For you guys along 70 though, it is such a razor's edge between ice and snow.

I didn't even notice a shift at all. I noticed though it showed more freezing rain which I'm thinking is something this storm will have but for some reason hasn't been talked about much

almost identical run. Based off gfs and euro here in west indy I'm really on the edge of very heavy snow or ice storm. 

FV3 good look as well. Can't wait to see euro in the morning. Here in Indy I'm wondering if we have an ice storm threat here as well? 

1 minute ago, buckeye said:

Euro bumped north.  I checked on WB and it never gets above freezing during the 2" of qpf that falls across parts of southern Ohio.   Haven't heard much about an ice storm component to this....is that a real possibility? that would be 

It obviously would be if the euro is right. Other models are showing freezing rain too just not like the euro. 

6 minutes ago, Baum said:

way too much talk...way too soon. heartbreak typically  follows....you'll excuse me if i don't buy in  as the  cody parkey therapy tour is still too fresh. That said...winter is coming with a vengeance...me thinks.

Yep, Just seems like the rest of the month is offering up something special. Were all getting excited

2 minutes ago, CoachLB said:

Hype train has begun on social media. Euro snow maps all over the place.

Links?

1 minute ago, Jackstraw said:

If this coming weekend pans out with possible warning criteria fro MN to MO all the way east to the Mid Atlantic and NE one things for sure.  This weather board is going to crash lol.

It could lol. Don't really remember seeing or tracking a storm like this since maybe GHD 2011

51 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

BAMwx is an AG-focused private forecasting firm around Indy. They are pro-winter in a place that doesn't have the greatest winter climo. This could be Yuuge for them

I live in Indy. I'm a client and they are pretty good actually

Wow this thread got hot in a hurry

3 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

First time it's let up since 7am.  Almost a 9 inch average around the yard.  Friend between here and Fishers measured 10. Just got back from another ride, winds picking up and country roads are starting to have decent drift issues.  KIND still calling for an additional 2-4 possibly before all is said and done.  I'm giddy lol.

yah snow is starting to fall again here in Avon. Looks to be a good shield of it for a while again. I'm around 7 inches here now. Be pretty cool to get over 10 for sure

It's been showing that too so could happen 

Just now, cyclone77 said:

Mexico MO said hold my beer.  A report of 19.0" from a spotter there.

nice so I guess the overblown NAM got it right. Good to see 

10 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

I still think there's a chance of double digits somewhere between I70 and SR28 in Central In.

I dont know about that. But with this storm playing out better than expected it could happen. It's now snowing hard here with big flakes again. I'd say some spots in Indiana get to 8 to 10 inches.Looking at national radar theres a good plume of moisture still coming from the gulf. Models didn't have it lasting that long

snowing good here again in west Indy. Nice to see a winter storm where dry pockets fill in when many times you know its over in other storms. Interesting to see how much more we can get out of this as theres still a lot of moisture returns in Ill filling in. At about 6-6.5 inches here

1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

This.  Plenty of times during storms with ten hours of 0.5"/hr snow I've thought, "Yeah, this is nice, but give me some heavy snow."  However, this is the first real snow I've actually seen fall this winter so I'm loving it.

It's a good storm for sure. Especially after how pathetic it was for a month and a half before. Thing that I love is this looks to be the beginning of a great stretch of winter 

10 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

The UKMET with its own path compared to the other models. I don't buy the move so fast it goes off the east coast nonsense, this offers another choice.

The 252-276 GFS is a triple phase, a rare event even for a long range model. I would store it in file as EPS and UKMET don't agree with the GFS at all in the super long range.

yep u dont see that type of setup in long range models often. Looking very forward to watching this and next couple weeks evolve. Haven't seen a pattern shaping up like this in 5 years. 

All models so missed another big thing. The storm is not really falling apart the more east it goes. In fact the dry air holes are continually filling in.