Brick Tamland

11 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

One would think a 995 low sitting just off hatteras would generate more than 0.10-0.25” for piedmont locations but the transfer could shaft some areas outside the coastal plain. Big time improvement though

Just glad to see it head in the positive direction instead of the other way right now. 

1 minute ago, Sandstorm94 said:

6z EPS

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk
 

It's creeping. 

Euro and GFS looked better last run. We'll see. 

1 hour ago, lilj4425 said:

No it doesn’t. 

Was for RDU eastward in NC. 

Euro ensembles look good, too.

The Euro improved, and the GEFS improved for Raleigh eastward. Not dead by any means for NC and VA. Wouldn't take much for it to be a bigger deal this way.

It's getting there.

35 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Hopefully the 18z GFS was 1 we can toss because the 18z EURO out to 90 looked much much better than the GFS

Back and forth we go

Sone of you must have forgotten what happened with the models with the storm we just had. 

1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said:

From Mike Maze:
Many folks have been reaching out about the possibility of a major winter storm this weekend. Today's model runs are not showing it at all. Here's a look at the European Ensemble probabilities for 1" of snow ending Saturday night. Does not look good to me right now.
Ensemble map shows 26% chance of 1" of snow for Wake.

They have been saying the Euro did the best with the last storm, too, and it didn't.  They always hug the Euro.

Yeah, seen a lot of folks mention the Christmas 2010 storm in comparison to this one.

1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Euro has been caught lacking this winter 

Probably late to the party again. Not sure why some local mets here said it was the best with the last storm.

Reminds me a bit of the storm we just had with where the higher totals are.

We have a storm thread folks.

GFS looks good again. I'm sure it will lead the way.

1 hour ago, PantherJustin said:

If Tomm nights 0Z’s come in hot I say do it….but this thing looks like a 20% shot right now Jmo 

 

I don't think it's that far off.

ICON looks close.

What does everyone think about this statement?

Nah. Euro was the consistent model last week and showed the signs of snow first. Elizabeth and I were texting about the Euro about 7 days before that snow. GFS caught on a few days later. Euro held steady when GFS wavered and when high resolution models were out to lunch. Consistency is key.

1 hour ago, PantherJustin said:

The GFS/Canadian have it…. European/UKIE more than likely do not (Obviously haven’t seen 12Z euro) it’s one thing to have one set of Mods and a more favorable solution together, and the other less but one set to have a storm and two others just to not even have it imo is another …. Not trying to be that guy, but this one doesn’t have near the support last two have imo 

Euro has been all over the place, though. The last storm had runs where some models had it and some didn't, too.

Baby steps. GFS showed a monster storm just a day ago. Then we see it go too far east, and already start coming back west a little bit every run with the models. Maybe it won't work out this time, but we have seen this happen before with the models when NC ends up getting a good storm. 

What's worse and more inconsistent,  the models or Carolina's basketball team?

25 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

0z GFS still has a storm but looks like it is a near miss... stays off the coast

Good. We did this song and dance with the last storm, except it waited until 48 hours out to go east before correcting back NW again. 

19 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

I don't mind seeing that on the OP necessarily, but we need the ensembles to start trending away from that late phase offshore scenario soon. Otherwise runs like the previous two are just outliers among the suite.

Isn't this kind of what we were saying at this point with the last storm about the ensembles not matching the ops?

Who made Fishel mad?

OK I’M GONNA CALL SOME PEOPLE OUT HERE. 

SOME OF THESE FOLKS ARE METEOROLOGISTS AND KNOW BETTER, WHILE OTHERS ARE RANK AMATEURS WHO THINK THEY KNOW WAY MORE THAN THEY DO. I DON’T CARE WHICH GROUP YOU’RE IN, IF YOU’RE POSTING DETERMINISTIC MODEL FORECASTS A WEEK OUT SHOWING SOME WEATHER CALAMITY, YOU’RE NOT IN THIS TO SERVE OTHERS, BUT RATHER TO SERVE YOURSELF. YOU’RE HOPING AGAINST HOPE THAT A MIRACLE WILL OCCUR AND YOU’LL BE ABLE TO BEAT YOUR CHEST AND SAY YOU WERE THE FIRST, AND THAT PEOPLE WILL FORGET ABOUT ALL THE OTHER  TIMES YOU WERE WRONG. AND DO ANY OF YOU UNDERSTAND THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABALISTIC FORECASTS, AND THAT THE LATTER IS THE ONLY RESPONSIBLE WAY TO GO? LOOK, I KNOW OF WHAT I SPEAK. I WENT THROUGH THAT ATTENTION SEEKING, INSECURE PHASE DURING MY 20S, AND THEN I GREW UP. I HIGHLY SUGGEST THAT WE ALL REMEMBER WHY WE DO THIS, PUBLIC SERVICE AND NOT SELF SERVICE.