Brick Tamland

GFS showing that now is concerning, though, since it usually underestimates the CAD. 

Meanwhile the ICON has this.

That would be bad.

23 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I am not sure why everyone excited about ice lol.

Still more exciting than rain. 

40 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

11 of 20 gfs ensemble members shown on cod weather website  show a significant winter storm for upstate South Carolina from hr 168-180. That’s an improvement from 7 of 20 on the 12z run. 

What do they have for NC?

Latest from WxSouth.

The period I'm particularly watching is  about February 10th  on to about the 20th. The timing could be off either way, but the confidence in this pattern type is high.  The Canadian and American models do build up the western ridge, just off the West Coast, to the point its the driver across North America (really the biggest  ridge anomaly in the Hemisphere this Winter). It does relax over the next week to 10 days, hence, our relaxation and warming trend in the Southeast. But similar to what happened in 2013-14 and 2014-15 Winters, it builds again, very, very strongly. That huge west ridge is a synoptic warning sign of sorts.  It indicates plenty of cold air dropping over the top of the ridge. This time, a split flow even shows up underneath, and there's not shortage of storm systems cruising across the Deep South, bringing precip from Texas to the Carolinas. In fact, the Southeast looks very active much of February with system after system moving through. Not all will be a Winter storm---but odds are  high one or more will be a hit in some areas, very far to the South.  I'll hit the pattern deeper in the blog later today with more model comparison and pattern recognition.  Enjoy the brief break later this week on moderating temps

Seeing some flurries now. Seems a lot earlier than what the models were showing.

Snow reported north of me in Franklinton.

1 minute ago, PantherJustin said:

Ok …. Greater chance of occurring…. Someone gets 3-6” in this Mystery band none of us can see, or NC State “Upsets” (If you wanna call it that) UNC Tomm in the Dean Dome while they honor Ole Roy?

Also honoring the 82 championship team. MJ, Worthy, and Perkins will be in the house. 

HRRR looked like it arrived later with the snow here and didn't last as long compared to the NAM, but the totals are similar.

Snow finally gets to Wake at 13 on the HRRR, 3 hours after the NAM showed it. 

Looks like less coverage on the HRRR.

And the RAP.

3K has about 8 hours of snow for Wake starting around 1:00 am. 

3K NAM might be better. 

All gone on the NAM between 18 and 21. 

NAM and HRRR are running. Looks like the NAM has snow here between 9 and 12 hours from now. 

HRRR looks pretty good. 

7 minutes ago, msuwx said:

You should try on for size the volume of high school basketball games we’ve had to cancel this month. 

We had one canceled last weekend, too. Guess we'll make up tomorrow's game next weekend. Tomorrow was supposed to be our last game. 

Euro

Well, they canceled the basketball games for tomorrow. We better get at least 2 inches out of this. 

Hour 8 to 18 for the HRRR.