Brick Tamland

1 hour ago, burrel2 said:

It’s one thing for a storm to trend north or south… but this storm has been modeled to crush somebody for a week straight consistently… and 48 hours before go time, poof? 

And the local mets are probably praying something happens after they sounded the alarm earlier today. If not the public won't have much confidence in them in the future. Not saying that's right,  but that's how it will be.

5 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said:

why is it crazy? this is not the first time or will it be the last. You know how hard it is to forecast winter weather down south.  Model chaos is almost expected. 

It's a lot better that it's snow instesd of something like a tornado outbreak catching people off guard. I just think in this day and age the technology should be better to have such differences in the models and such dramatic changes this close to go time and. But it is what it is. It will either snow or not. Maybe it would be better to just wait and see what happens instesd of trying to see what the models show might happen. 

Anyway, Dr Rick says no more talking about how awful the models are. 

3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I used to think he was just a kid so I’d cut him some slack. That was 13 years ago.

Well, I started posting when I was 2.

3 minutes ago, Avdave said:

You have been this way for a long time here. Its just weather. If it happens good, if it doesnt, life goes on.  Get a grip on reality

I agree. But it still doesn't mean it's crazy to either have the Euro be totally off or have the NAM make such a dramatic change in 12 hours and only 48 hours out. It's just a message board.

20 minutes ago, coralreefer said:

Your juvenile rants get old.  I love your enthusiasm when things are going well on the maps.  There were 2 phases of energy trying to converge and it just never materialized.  I live in the Pee Dee River valley between CLT and Pinehurst.  A total of 4in of snow in 21 yrs.  My sister in Houston has had almost twice as much snow as me.  Reading these maps and listening to the great knowledge on this board trying to decipher the data is awesome.  Some of your posts take the fun out of it.  

The models being awful 48 hours out and making such a dramatic change in 12 hours takes the fun out of it. I guess you're not a aports fan and never vent about your teams when they suck,  too. 

But maybe the Euro is right. That would be great. 

If this ends up not snowing west of 95 the global models need to be put out to pasture. 

Damn you Euro!

5 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Wow, completely different than the NAM.

Anyone want to help me out with something at the other place?

35 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

RDU SREF plumes roughly 1-2"

WRAL's Futurecast still shows a lot of QPF on Friday...
Kat Campbell did just acknowledge they are shifting their map EAST later tonight after looking at new data.  

The models didn't start to go to crap until they started hyping the 3 to 5 inches today. Poor timing.

52 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

Everyone in Raleigh needs to chill…. These models are way off. We all know by Tomm night it will be right back how it was…. It will change 9x more every run of (model suites) it wouldn’t surprise me if all of them lose it then start creeping back by 06z runs Tomm …. This happens every storm we have a day of crap runs then it ends up just fine or some result not even shown like last weeks HRR …. Stop trusting Computers they have ZERO clue …. Ppl need to go back to looking at Fronts ect on paper and stop trusting computers 

With 48 hours to go? We'll see.

Sorry, I got carried away. 

It's my own fault for getting sucked into what the models were showing. 

2 minutes ago, burgertime said:

I think it might be time for him to walk the plank to a good ol' fashioned Keelhauling. 

Aaarrrggghhh you kidding me?

This has been a collapse of epic proportions by the models. To go from a great looking storm on pretty much every model to a dud in 12 hours and only 48 hours before go time is terrible. 

1 minute ago, sarcean said:

No one has whines as hard as you on these boards. You will get snow. It may not be as much as some models had but the triangle is going to get over an inch to several inches which is a win anytime.

That doesn't even look promising now. 

4 minutes ago, burgertime said:

If you would bother to learn anything you'd know the models are a guide not a map. For 10 years of being on the board you should be able to look at the models, remember how storms have played out in the past and then decide for yourself what is likely to happen. Not live and die by each model run FFS. 

It's not just one model run, though. The storm has continued to look worse and worse today with each run after looking awesome just 12 hours ago, and only 48 hours before go time. It's the way the runs have gone the opposite direction so quickly and so close to go time that is crazy. Sorry, but that is an epic collapse by the models. 

Just now, CaryWx said:

12z Thursday for a resolution on 24hrs out is a bit insulting from a weather forecast model perspective isn't it?

I mean what's the point in ever looking at the models past 24 hours then?

Man, why do we look at this junk so far out if it can all go to crap in less than 12 hours only 48 hours before go time? Might as well just see what the models say 48 hours out when the local mets have snow in the forecast. 

And this was last night. 

Just now, burgertime said:

Calm down. Funny how it worked last weekend. It's one run. 

Not really for central NC. 

Just now, JoshWeather said:

i've seen you post this numerous times now.  You've been here for over a decade.  If you think not trusting the models outside of 24 hours(heck, even closer than that) is something new...then you haven't been paying attention.  I couldn't count the number of storms on all my fingers and toes over the past decade that showed a hefty snow only to completely dissipate on the models over the last few days.  

But it wasn't the last few days. It went off the cliff in less than 12 hours.