Organizing Low

Anddddd we snow coming down at a good clip already , juicy flakes from BTV they were on it .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 610 AM EST Friday...It`s finally the moment we have been waiting for over the past several days as the warm nose is beginning to decay and cold air is beginning to spill into northern New York. We have seen the boundary between snow and freezing rain advance about 30-40 miles over the past two hours and it`s just a matter of time until this line works into northern and central Vermont.

Steady frzra our there currently from BTV....more frzra AND more snow , insane .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1238 AM EST Friday...The forecast remains quite challenging tonight and had to make several changes based on the latest model guidance and observations. Thermal profiles on both the global and high resolution members show a +5 to +7 degree warm nose pretty much anywhere east of the St. Lawrence Valley. Because of this, freezing rain was added to the grids through the overnight hours with up to a tenth of an inch of freezing rain possible before the freezing rain changes over to snow during the early morning hours. As it stands, it looks like freezing rain will change over to snow between 14Z and 15Z for Burlington, 17Z to 18Z for Montpelier and after 18Z for far southern Vermont. Freezing rain amounts across southern Vermont have been increased to 0.25 to 0.40 inches in response the delay in precipitation changing over to snow this afternoon. Actually ended up bumping up snowfall totals across northern New York and northern Vermont based on the latest guidance. More information to follow in the routine update between 3 and 4 AM.

Sorry for the sideways image oops

Echoes came through here and were frzra meanwhile the backside heavy snow has blossomed as modeled, and is knocking on the door in south Ottawa. traffic cameras confirm the snow storm is getting going.

Those nam winds are crazy impressive on the coast. Thanks for posting dendrite. Should be near blizzard conditions here tomorrow afternoon.

Radar is blossoming just to my northwest. It’s snowing in Toronto , Ottawa and Montreal. snow appears to be perhaps 15 miles to my northwest as the crow flies. I’m hoping that it’s not hours of tease Show , but it might be. So close !

2 inches here , 23 degrees snizzle all day and glazed windows for all We watch the radar and wait.

1.5 inches here on the front end not much to write home about as first part underperforms The 3-5 forecast though the model trends were all over it time for some sleep

Thank you westerly ! much appreciated.

Light snow has begun here 18 degrees.

If someone could post the Euro snowfall map that would be great. my rudimentary look At free maps seems it is a bit cooler than the us models.

for sure the backside sting looks good, but I think the models have raised enough red flags to know that is optimistic at this point. still some time for correction I suppose.

It’s clear what the trends are best snows look to be in Saint Lawrence valley and not Champlain valley. South shore of Montreal down towards Vermont border and back along eastern Ontario and upstate NY. Even Ottawa is in the game all of a sudden. Sitting in the NW most corner of Vermont I suppose my chances are better than anyone, but the amped trends do not bode well. Would not normally be Too upset , except will be some wicked banding for this neck of the woods and was looking forward to that. Someone Just Nw of me is going to get plastered.

Wow if this play out those fantasy run from the GFS that caught my attention over The Weekend will be essentially dead on. great to be in the lolli zone

We had a great storm in November but this will end up being the storm of the season up in N Vermont if the GFS pans out. But the NaM and euro not so much. I will give the GFS credit for being Generally consistent for the better part of 5 days on this one. In any case , Looks like a 2 parter, extended duration event. These days I only post when there’s potential for something memorable , so I guess I am cautiously optimistic ?

absolutely pouring in ottawa, thought i'd share a traffic cam

models were zoning in on that area for the past couple days, great skiing at tremblant!

mod snow, small flakes but pouring straight down, little wind 15F 2" +

probably the prototypical SWFE upon which they should all be built....at least in my memory. and resulted in a crippling storm in ontario and quebec and atlantic canada, probably the biggest storm in recent times to affect such a large swath of canada's population. you guys had a significant storm a few days even before that i recall. a december to remember in SNE.

heading to stowe tomorow morning and back later in the day hopefully before the snow starts up. parents flights from ottawa to california (through YYZ toronto) tomorrow already cancelled (!) as of this morning, so that was a relief - obviously lots of hype up there for a repeat of dec 16 2007 which it wont be. still glad they cancelled the flights thanks to lots of lead time on this one. this will just be a regular winter storm up here IMO. nevertheless 8-12 is reasonable, anything more a bonus, my call i think the sleet will push further north and eclipse BTV, although i certainly do respect the cold- but this is not looking like a dec 16/07 redux as Will has pointed out.

all time classic

and there you have it i feel in a decent position here, though on the cusp of sleet here IMO. all places SE of here including VT, would not be very confident. would like to see some better trends for all folks tomorrow. should be another great storm for ottawa where the banks are piling high this year.

december 15, 2007 comes to mind

i was in oakabrook terrace, we got down to -5 to -10F on 2 nights. one of those days the wind in the city was just awful. that was before the cold snap, luckily i left in time.

i slipped on ice twice outside this evening, was surprised given we've been above freezing for about 24 hours i guess thats the cold surface effect..