9 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

A couple years back, some of us were talking about the stone chambers in the area and their supposed celestial alignments. I finally made it to the "Winter Solstice Chamber" in Kent this am and it was definitely an impressive sight with the sunlight perfectly streaming in through the doorway. I did sort of get caught off-guard by the pagan chanting and Druid peace rituals. For some reason, out of about 50 people there, I was the only one who couldn't feel any connection with the spirits.

Wait, where is this?  I was reading today about a site in Scotland that predates Stonehenge (it's over 5,000 years old) and it also predicts the Winter Solstice, among other things (eclipses, conjunctions, etc.)  Fascinating how much the ancients knew!

There's also the Dogon tribe in Africa that had a festival every 60 years when Sirius (Dog Star) appeared in a little notch between two mountains.

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Pretty sure 83 was a coastal.

Would love a Feb 94 repeat

Both, right, back to back?

I mean PD2 was a coastal too, I think both were part overrunning and part coastal, that's why they lasted for two days lol.

20 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

It would be cool to see a larger sample size, and also time of year. My guess is NAO is very important for NYC, 2:1 to 3:1 for snow. 

There are some outlier winters like 1993-94

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, it was a long duration overrunning event. Great combination of El Nino STJ and -EPO generated very strong Arctic high to our north. 

Wasn't Feb 1983 the same thing?

Those are our biggest storms!

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

That April 2003 snowstorm happened just a few days after a brief -NAO drop.

I think the Xmas 2002 storm also had a neg nao? That was a nice surprise for us.

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we have had top 10 events near the changes and in the middle of -NAO events. 2002-2003 was interesting in that the -NAO was mostly front-loaaded into December and the first week of January. PD2 was unique in that it occurred during a +NAO run that began during the second week of January. But we had the El Nino STJ along with a strong -EPO block.

That's right and we had a pretty significant storm before PD2 but it gets lost because of the historic nature of what came after.  The Pre-PD2 storm dumped 9 inches of snow, I think?

What did we have for the April 2003 snowstorm?  -NAO? That was another big one, I would consider it historic for us in Nassau County considering it was April.

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

I put together a collection of the top 10 snowstorms from Newark to Islip since 1950. This is when the NAO data became regularly available. Nearly all the events at our 5 major climate sites occurred following a -NAO. The lowest NAO readings were included up to 10 days before the events. The few exceptions to the pattern were in 2013,2015, and January 1978. February 2013 featured a very strong STJ following the early El Nino development which faded out in the fall. January 2015 and 1978 were during a weak El Nino. So on a few occasions the strong STJ was able to overcome the +NAO. Also notice how many storms have happened during our recent historic run.

http://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.index.b500101.current.ascii

NYC

27.5...1-24-16....-0.890

26.9...2-12-06....-0.537

20.9...2-26-10....-1.299

20.2..1-8-96......-.1.719

20.0...12-27-10...-1.533

19.8...2-17-03...+0.654

19.0...1-27-11....-0.944

17.7...2-7-78.....-0.865

17.6...2-12-83...-0.690

17.4...2-4-61.....-0.126

EWR

27.8...1-8-96.....-1.719

24.3...1-23-16....-0.890

24.2...12-27-10..-1.533

22.6...2-4-61......-0.126

22.3...2-17-03....+0.654

21.3..2-12.-06....-0.537

20.4...12-12-60...-0.078

19.0...2-7-78......-0.865

18.9...1-27-11...-0.944

18.2...3-19-56...-0.225

JFK

30.5...1-24-16...-0.890

25.8...2-17-03...+0.654

24.1...2-4-61....-0.126

21.7...2-12-83...-0.690

20.7...1-8-96....-1.719

20.2...2-10-69...-0.678

18.1...2-5-61....-0.126

16.7...2-12-06...-0.537

15.6...12-27-10...-1.533

14.5...12-20-09...-2.111

LGA

28.2...1-24-16...-0.890

25.4...2-12-06...-0.537

23.8...1-8-96...-1.719

22.0...2-12-83...-0.690

19.0...2-5-61...-0.126

17.3...1-27-11...-0.944

16.5...2-17-03..+0.654

16.1...2-10-69...-0.678

15.3...3-4-60....-1.095

14.9...12-20-95..-1.581

ISP

27.8...2-9-13....+0.219

25.9...2-7-78....-0.865

24.9...1-27-15...+0.235

23.9...12-20-09...-2.111

23.7...1-24-16...-0.890

20.1...2-12-83...-0.690

19.9...2-12-06...-0.537

17.8..1-20-78...+0.234

17.0...1-8-96...-1.719

17.0...2-10-69...-0.678

 

 

 

Chris, changing from one phase to the other is probably the most important factor.

Didn't PD2 occur during a +NAO? But it had switched just a few days before the storm?

2002-03 wasn't a very NEG NAO winter was it?  But we had many switches between phases, which is what made it so stormy.

18 minutes ago, snywx said:

6° for a low here

Shocked how cold it was, especially with the high clouds that gave us a brilliant sunrise.  Anyone record below zero?

14 minutes ago, Cfa said:

I felt it, I thought I was off balance initially but I noticed clothes hangers swaying back and forth.

Swaying not nearly as noticeable as the 2011 quake, that was enough to wake me up out of my sleep.

What was the exact time of it? I didn't feel it here and the 2011 one was easy to feel and also heard sloshing around.

58 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

4.4 quake just hit NE of Delaware, Dover 

 

edit: upgraded to 5.1

I wonder if this was related to the quake we had in 2011?  Same fault line?

41 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Hey @IrishRob17, it's almost time to start our annual initiative educating people about the earliest sunsets being in early Dec.

I am always shocked when I see the sunset is before 4:30 and it's still November!  It happens every year and yet I forget it every year until it actually happens lol.

Today's sunset was 4:28 PM here.

Late fall/winter sunsets and sunrises seem to be the most colorful too.

20 hours ago, forkyfork said:

i'm not a "look at the pretty light snow" kind of person. ku's or torch

I'm not a cold and dry kind of guy- that's a killer on heating bills with no joy.  Give me snow and teens/20s, or give me 60-70 degrees with sunshine in the winter!  Actually, if it's not snowing, today is perfect!

Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Probably just away from the coast in New England. Lower elevation for heat but still access to big storms.

Also good for tropical threats!

On 11/8/2017 at 8:04 AM, uncle W said:

NYC averaged around 42" of precipitation up to 1970...after 1970 the average is near 50"...big snow storm frequency is the reason for higher snow totals...

Indeed.  We either get 1-3 inches of snow or 10+ it seems.  Moderate snowstorms have become extremely rare.

28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The ridging out west has been ridiculous in recent years. There is a few new papers out on the topic. But most of them are behind a paywall.

Remote Linkages to Anomalous Winter Atmospheric Ridging Over the Northeastern Pacific

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017JD026575/full

 

http://cpo.noaa.gov/News/News-Article/ArtMID/6226/ArticleID/1498/Scientists-link-California-droughts-and-floods-to-distinctive-atmospheric-waves

The crippling wintertime droughts that struck California from 2013 to 2015, as well as this year's unusually wet California winter, appear to be associated with the same phenomenon: a distinctive wave pattern that emerges in the upper atmosphere and circles the globe. 

Scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) found in a recent study that the persistent high-pressure ridge off the west coast of North America that blocked storms from coming onshore during the winters of 2013-14 and 2014-15 was associated with the wave pattern, which they call wavenumber-5. Follow-up work showed that wavenumber-5 emerged again this winter but with its high- and low-pressure features in a different position, allowing drenching storms from the Pacific to make landfall. 

"This wave pattern is a global dynamic system that sometimes makes droughts or floods in California more likely to occur," said NCAR scientist Haiyan Teng, lead author of the California paper. "As we learn more, this may eventually open a new window to long-term predictability." 

The finding is part of an emerging body of research into the wave pattern that holds the promise of better understanding seasonal weather patterns in California and elsewhere. Another new paper, led by NCAR scientist Grant Branstator, examines the powerful wave pattern in more depth, analyzing the physical processes that help lead to its formation as well as its seasonal variations and how it varies in strength and location.

The California study was published in the Journal of Climate while the comprehensive study into the wave patterns is appearing in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. Both papers were funded by the National Science Foundation, which is NCAR's sponsor, as well as by the Department of Energy, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and NASA.

Thanks,  I wonder if this will lead to a new index being used to account for this?

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Denver-DIA hit 81° today which is 34° above the normal high of 47°. This difference between the actual high & the normal high was the second largest ever recorded for Denver. The only larger difference occurred on Dec 5, 1939 when Denver was 35° above normal. #cowx

2:07 PM - 27 Nov 2017

Remember when Dallas hit 95 earlier in November and they hadn't had a a temp of 90 or above in the entire month before that (and they had a heat wave, let alone just one 90 degree day in November!)  How much was that temp above their normal high?  And LA's 92 record on Thanksgiving?

Just now, Dan76 said:

Right where pam lives i think one of the Dakotas was voted worse weather in the US.

Oh the place with the most weather extremes?

You couldn't pay me a billion dollars to live in SD because of the fracking that occurs there.

That whole region is an earthquake waiting to happen.

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

No not really. I’m a weather fan period. All weather; warm, cold, snow, rain, wind, dry. I’m not just a cold and snow fan only, unlike some others ;-)

But you don't seem to like hot summers, and I love those, because I'm a big numbers guy and I enjoy watching the temps reach for 100, the same way I enjoy watching a 20 inch snowstorm lol.  I love temperature extremes (both hot and cold) and precipitation extremes (rain, snow and even ice) and wind extremes.

I was going to start a topic on this earlier, but I didn't know if anyone had the right answer for this- but where in the country is the best place to be to experience 20 inch snowstorms in the winter and 100 degree heat in the summer?

32 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Technically speaking, today was the first day of Climatological Winter and so a new winter banter forum should be started.

It runs from Nov. 27 to Mar. 24 and represents the bottom quartile of daily mean temperatures which indicates the range should be all days with a mean T between 43-31 degrees.  The bottom of the NYC winter comes in and around Jan. 24.

That doesn't sound right- the period you referenced isn't a quartile because it covers a four not three month period.

Going by those climo standards, winter should be from the end of the first week of December to the end of the first week of March.

On 11/25/2017 at 1:41 AM, Dakota said:

This winter from the late 1950's had some unusual snow totals; not the least of which was the nearly 14 inch discrepancy between Central Park and Newark Airport; which tells Me measurement problems at the Park are not a contemporary phenomenon.  I'm not sure if there was actually someone at the Belvedere Castle to put the ruler in the snow or they just did it at the weather office; which was at the Whithall Building (on the southern tip of Manhattan Island) before moving to 30 Rock in 1960.  I know for a fact that the mets did not go to the park on 7 February 1978 but just took the measurement at Rockefeller Center because there was too much snow to muddle through.  After they moved to Upton in the 1990's; someone obviously had to be hired to take the measurements at the now unmanned NYC station.  There were major snowstorms on 2/16/1958 & 3/19/1958.

Seasonal Snowfall 1957-58

Westhampton Beach: 72.5"

Babylon, LI NWS Co-op: 66.6"

Upton / BNL: 61.1"

Newark: 58.3"

LaGuardia: 51.5"

Bridgeport: 49.0"

Central Park: 44.7"

Interesting that March was the snowiest month in the 50s.

On 11/24/2017 at 10:29 AM, CIK62 said:

EURO WEEKLIES [11/23] have record cold near Christmas, then flip by 50 degrees !!!  for NYD.

GFS slowly rotates the Polar Vortex to the east (from over Asia) and seems to want to get it here (over Hudson Bay) by mid-Dec.

Go to Instant Weather Maps to see this.   Image will not link.

That sounds about normal for us lol.  It's a common pattern for us during our non- el nino winters to have extreme cold sometime between Christmas and the first few days of the New Year and then flip to milder weather after the first week of January.  What really decides winter is what happens after the thaw- in 95-96 it went back to cold and snowy later in January and after that- which was what made that winter great.

5 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yup! Depending on the species some immediately fell off. I have a tulip tree that dropped all its leaves on Saturday. My silver maples are still holding crinkled green leaves.

Forget about Oaks, I expect some of them to hold green/brown leaves that died in place. Could be an issue if we have an early season wet snow storm before the winter winds eventually strip them down.

i have never seen anything like it on campus. We were progressing like a normal fall just a week late. Since the majority of the big trees are oaks it’s almost as if fall stopped. The leaves are all stuck up in the trees!

That's awesome, I love it when leaves stay on trees so they don't have to be raked

23 hours ago, forkyfork said:

another big year for snowy owls? one was spotted in bayonne

http://www.startribune.com/snowy-owl-reports-coming-from-wisconsin/456452353/?section=variety

I saw one a few weeks ago.  They're supposed to be very rare.  In our area at any rate.

3 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

man this weather is boring

gimme some snow or lightning

How about snow and lightning together ;-)

20 hours ago, CIK62 said:

The latest 10-day period, 40 runs, of the CFS Winter Forecast is hopeful.   Cold now looks to invade south and cover 80% of the country, but not us....yet.   Older runs showed only some hope in the Pacific NW

.http://models.weatherbell.com/cfs/2017111118/noram/cfs_anom3_t2m_noram_201712_avg.php#  

Seattle and north Texas have both had snow this year before us.