Paragon

Just now, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days averaging 44degs., or about 3degs. BN.

Just under 25degs., (where it was all night, just about)here in CI now.

Got anything for the November 20-30 period?

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Outside of this outlier arctic cold shot, temps look near normal to at times AN (late next week). 

The forecasts I saw last night talked about more arctic shots starting next weekend and lasting to the end of November and then a flip to warmer weather beginning in early December.  

Before next weekend we should be in the 50s.

What does what you're looking at have for between November 20-30?

9 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Wow beautiful sugar maples!! There used to be sugar maples like that in Garden City when I was growing up. A wealthy Aunt of mine had several on her property. They all sucombed to pollution and had to be removed in the late 90s as was the case all around the Met area. Very few left. A very pollution sensitive species.

I'd want to sue the people/companies causing the pollution.  A side effect of overpopulation that needs to be remedied.  Any idea what kind of pollution it was?

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Models backing off big time on the -NAO and huge blocking pattern. Gfs LR even has a massive ridge on east coast, thoughts?

It might be a case of the model seeing the pattern change too early.  I read that we're supposed to flip to a mild pattern starting in early December.  Anything before that is likely wrong.  We see the same thing happen when models forecast a change to a colder pattern- they tend to want to make it happen too early.

14 hours ago, uncle W said:

I better barometer for daily temperatures is an average of each days hourly temperature and the max/min added in...there were records kept like this a long time ago...

https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-EB426BAC-CC7C-4B0E-B7EE-107BDFE88ABE.pdf

I actually had an idea to do that, I wonder why it isn't done like that anymore?

5 hours ago, BxEngine said:

My dog wont be happy about the last of my tomato plants dying tnite...damn dog stole like 100 grape tomatoes this year. 

Tell him that dogs are supposed to eat meat!

On 11/9/2017 at 5:37 PM, Juliancolton said:

That would be a terrible bet regardless of the month. I'd feel good about a sig snowfall though. Make it 4" and I'm in.

It's an entirely different world north and west.  Driving tomorrow morning into the Poconos and I see reports that the one inch of snow that fell there a few days ago is still on the ground!

On 11/7/2017 at 6:43 PM, SnoSki14 said:

I don't see how we're going to see sustained BN temps with such a deep trough on the west coast despite the development of high latitude blocking. 

Euro supposedly showing 1-2 weeks of sustained cold for Thanksgiving week and the week after that.  You can get it even with a deep trough in the west if you have a steep ridge in the middle- it's called an Omega Block!

13 hours ago, Dakota said:

Can you imagine (what a swell party this is)?

The CPC just went cold and wet in the East from 11/8 - 11/16.  Maybe there will be a snowstorm in the Kittatinnies or Poconos or Catskills or Litchfield Hills...or maybe right down to the coast.

Then I must get to having my boiler fixed.  I have it scheduled for next week.

We've had back to back days in November with temps in the 70s and humidity near 80 percent (dp in the mid 60s)

On 10/31/2017 at 9:01 AM, bluewave said:

That area is the high pressure record holder for the the US set on 12-24-83. I just remember how cold it was here. 

 

 

 

I read somewhere that our last truly anomalous arctic outbreak (2 SD) was in 1994.  The three I remember the most were that one and Christmas Day 1980 and January 1985 (inauguration day.)

20 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It’s pretty funny but you just know what “analogs” are going to be used in the fall based on whether we have an El Niño or a La Niña. El Niño: 57-58, 02-03, 09-10 La Niña: 95-96, 10-11, 13-14. Without fail, those analogs come out, everytime

ENSO gets thrown out way too much as an influencer of our local climate- there are other factors that should be used.

For example, I am going to use the fact that we are having the warmest fall on record and that alone is enough to convince me we're going to have a mild winter.

56 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's never ending because it has become the norm so people think that's how it's supposed to be. 

People don't really notice how extreme it is unless it's centered around winter or summer. People definitely noticed Dec 2015 and they'll definitely notice the next record warm July-August. 

Well I'm glad because my boiler still isn't fixed lol.

With all this sunshine and humidity it feels like summer out there!  I have my heat going lol.

On 10/31/2017 at 6:24 AM, JerseyWx said:

Yeah, Spearfish has the most rapid temperature change ever recorded.  In just two minutes it went from -4° to 45°.   Loma, Montana has an incredible record as well, where it went from -54° to 49° in 24 hours.  That's a 103° change!  Can't forget Browning, Montana where it dropped from 44° to -56° in a day.  Montana also holds the record for coldest temperature in the lower 48, which is -70° at Rogers Pass.

Wow, those are the places where you can get all possible weather within an hour, any time of the year.  Could you imagine that kind of temperature change?  Must've been accompanied with some amazing winds too.

5 minutes ago, Dakota said:

Well I had a friend who lived out there and she kept urging Me to relocate...and you know; I was getting simply squeezed to death by the property taxes out on LI...and when I quit My job in Feb 2016...not officially until April 2016...I took leave for a couple of months...nothing was holding Me here anymore.

She had invited Me out to her place in Dec 2015 for the Holidays; and then I drove out there in May 2016 for a few days...and then I actually lived at her place during the late winter of 2017 when I flew out there again.

I put My house up for sale in April 2016 and I closed 16 months later.  The day I closed; the buyers kicked My tail out and I lived in a hotel for 3 days and then was on a plane out here.  I didn't even have a house when I got here; but I looked online and found something while I was living out of a hotel in Rapid City.

The big expense was the moving costs: 13K for the truck.  They dropped it off and I rented a storage facility for My stuff until I got a place.

Then I moved in and everything has been not too bad since.

The taxes are pretty out of control and it only keeps getting worse, I suspect political corruption is to blame.  I expect that you can get a lot more property out there for much less.  The buyers seem to have been on the rude side, typically you should be getting a 30 day grace period to move out.

12 minutes ago, Dakota said:

I know the feeling...

Rather apt for post 214...

2=B

1=A

4=D

You can't make this stuff up...

How did you end up moving to the Black Hills? I've always wanted to visit that area because I remember reading somewhere that it gets the most rapid temperature changes of any place on Earth.  A place called Spearfish I think.

I love temperature (or any other kind of) extremes!

3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I ended up with about a foot. A ton was wasted on the front end with sleet and rain in Long Beach. We had almost as much liquid as areas east of us. 

We get screwed either way lol.  Remember the retrograding Feb 2010 storm where Central Park got 20" inches of snow and it took our area the entire day to change over?  We ended up with over an inch of rain followed by about a foot of snow.  Feb 2013 was the opposite of that in that the heavier totals were to our east but we still started out with rain and ended up with a foot of snow on the back end.  It was like March 2001 except with a lot more precip.

3 hours ago, Rjay said:

Let me know when 

Thought it was interesting that we had sustained tropical force winds yet the gusts only made it to about 50.

4 hours ago, Dakota said:

I definitely do *not* think there has been a 10 inch increase in average annual rainfall since the 1970's...I can look into the numbers; but I'm pretty sure the increase you are claiming is a little overblown.  Assuming arguendo the last 10 years were 10 inches wetter than the long term mean; that does not automatically make the new mean commensurate with those last 10 years.  In other words; Upton has averaged around 48 inches of snow the last 17 years; but that does not make Upton's average annual snowfall 48 inches; but rather simply increases the long term average ever so slightly upwards; the degree of the increase dependent upon the overall length of the  climate record.

Anyway, there have always been seasons where the bulk of the snow budget could be found in a single storm; Feb 1969 and Feb 1983 immediately come to mind.  This is very common in places where the average annual snowfall is light to moderate; and thus one snowstorm can often make or break the winter.

 

It's more like 42" to 49" from what I can recall from memory, but it might be like 41.4 to 49.7, I don't have eidetic memory   It should be fairly easily to compare though, take 30 year segments- 1951 to 1980 vs 1981 to 2010.

13 minutes ago, Dakota said:

Soooo snowy....

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
315 PM EST SAT FEB 09 2013

   SUFFOLK COUNTY...
   MEDFORD               33.5  1015 AM  2/09  PUBLIC                 
   UPTON                 30.9   900 AM  2/09  NWS OFFICE             
   CENTRAL ISLIP         30.7   815 AM  2/09  PUBLIC                 
   COMMACK               29.1   530 AM  2/09  PUBLIC                 
   HUNTINGTON            29.0   630 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER        
   EAST SETAUKET         28.5   641 AM  2/09  PUBLIC                 
   YAPHANK               28.1  1140 AM  2/09  PUBLIC                 
   STONY BROOK           28.0   730 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER        
   ISLIP AIRPORT         27.8   700 AM  2/09  FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER

I remember some place recorded 40"- might have been CT?

19 minutes ago, Dakota said:

It is probably a little wetter than it once was; but does that really factor so substantially into the augmented snow totals?

For example, if the average rainfall was say 42" in 1975 and it is say 44" nowadays; that means only 2 more inches of rain spread over 12 months.

Since most snow falls in a three month interval (Dec - Feb)...the increase there is just 25% of the 2" increase or 0.50".

Then factor in the fact that just 25% of the winter's precip is snow on Long Island in an average year anyway...and you are left with just 0.125 inches of new snow above the old mean in L.E. terms; or a paltry 1 1/4 inch increase in average annual snowfall per your theory.

But average increase of annual snowfall totals vs more frequency of big precip snow "bombs" are two different things.  As you know, one big event can make up for an entire season's snowfall (a great example of this was the January 2016 big snow that dumped over 30" here.)

The average annual rainfall went from around 40" during the 70s/80s to around 50" now, which is a pretty significant increase.

The increase in snowfall should be transitional anyway, in a warming climate, we'll eventually get past this stage.  The increasing precip totals, higher humidity levels and higher temps will have much more long term impacts though, including more tropical diseases spreading into our area (we've already been seeing that over the past decade.)

3 minutes ago, Dakota said:

Now that one was genuine fun!

I remember the LIE became a parking lot lol, it was sort of like Boxing Day 2010 moved 60 miles further east.

1 hour ago, Dakota said:

I don't know about you; but I'd say most of it has been luck, i.e. random chance.

Remember 1976-77...as cold as ice...and very paltry snow amounts around here.

Or even December 1989...which I think was unusually cold...but practically snowless.

Day to day excellence is absolutely meaningless.  One must succeed only when it counts.

No, it's probably not chance since total precip has been on a steep increase since the 70s.  I remember the 70s/80s and it was an entirely different climate back then- big precip events were much much more rare.  There's been a huge increase in 2"+ and even 3"+ precip events.  There's been a big increase in total annual precip too.

5 hours ago, Dakota said:

Here's another bad (or good, depending on your perspective) one:

Snowfall 2012-13

Islip: 46.9"

JFK: 17.6"

________

It is snowing at a pretty decent clip here right now.

I didn't see anyone on the evening news predict it...

Some things never change...

blah that was a really bad one, I can't stand <20" snowfall seasons, most of that came in one storm that was predicted to drop 3 feet of snow in NYC and it ended up in Suffolk County instead.

Just now, Dakota said:

Snowfall 1993-94:

LGA: 58.5"

JFK: 45.2"

Thanks did they measure snow at White Plains back then?  I guess Bridgeport, CT would suffice too.

8 minutes ago, Dakota said:

Be careful what you wish for; you just might get it...

I think the closest thing to that I've experienced was 1993-94.  If I remember right, JFK got about 45 inches of snow while LGA got 65 inches, not sure what White Plains got though.