Paragon

3 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Yes, the general idea here is to note that they reading above record. They may not be reporting correctly but anything above record is alarming. Those levels have been in data sets for many years as you would expect for a tropical island in the USGS database. The 1985 event set most of those records. 31.67 inches of rain peaked in the Toro Negro State Forest and is the record within a 24 hour period. Neither Hurricane Georges or Hugo came close. Maria may end up exceding it if the southerly onshore pivot persist all evening. Not having radar estimates or comms established sucks. It may be several days before we really grasp the brunt of impact with isolated communities.

 

Reports now coming in of close to 40" of rain!

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Maria might have a little influence, but Jose currently has the larger circulation. Jose's IKE is also quite a bit higher than Maria's despite Maria's intensity. That also suggests that Jose is more likely to have a greater impact on Maria's track than Maria would have on Jose's track. Jose is also leaving a weakness in the ridging that might otherwise be more expansive, thus allowing Maria greater opportunity to find that larger weakness.

Thanks for that very useful piece of info, Don- it's very intuitive that IKE would also be a factor in storm track and a storm with a larger IKE would influence a storm with a smaller IKE even if the smaller IKE storm had a higher intensity.

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I was thinking of a scenario kind of like Helene in 1958 with a sharp turn to the east with the slower forward motion. The window of opportunity ahead of the trough's arrival is limited. I don't see Jose getting in position to push Maria northwestward onto shore.

It's often the case on the east coast that it's a race between a trough to the west and the TC coming in from the east- and the trough usually wins.  In this case we have Jose as a third factor.  So Maria has two negative factors to deal with; even if all three factors were equal (which they are not), the highest probability of landfall would be around 33%.

What I was wondering, Don, is if Jose can influence Maria's path, can Maria also influence Jose's path (especially since it is stronger than Jose?)

1 hour ago, Roger Smith said:

Arecibo reports now updated to (edit) 1418z, peak gust  98 knots at 1354z (wind still NE to 1418z and still gusting to 96 knots).

Degraded eye must be very close now, next hour of reports will probably capture it if the sensors survive the surge.

Interesting to note that sustained winds increase from 72 knots at 10m to 78 knots at 20m. If that rate of increase was sustained to 100m (top of high rise buildings in San Juan) it would imply 126 knots at that level -- probably not quite that linear but over 100 knots likely. 

Hopefully no major damage to the big radio telescope or any other part of the island (wishful thinking)

2 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

On subject of "weakening" at landfall, in these cases where a strong hurricane approaches a hilly or mountainous region, we have to understand that the forward half of the circulation is being squeezed up so there would be some tendency for the surface elements of the eyewall region to be lifted up near the coast, net effect being a pressure rise and wind decrease at sea level but no doubt the cat-5 winds continued on to make an elevated landfall.

When Patricia came inland there was evidence that pressures had risen 30-40 mbs in the six hours to landfall but winds at some elevation inland (northwest portion of eyewall) were still representative of lower eye central pressures, so really this discussion is somewhat moot, it depends on where you want to measure the winds -- but officially it is the conditions at the sea level landfall point. Those may not be known for a while but from the radar I suspect there may be patchy cat-5 damage evidence in the right front quarter of the eyewall. There will probably be widespread cat-5 type blowdown on ridges (and unfortunately the radar was located in such a spot). 

In Patricia's case wasn't that one weakening a few hours before landfall?  Patricia was a world record 215 mph (not sure what her lowest pressure was) and then weakened significantly a few hours before landfall.

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Looks like it probably heavily damaged that forest in NE PR.

The sounds coming out of those forests are truly ghastly.  And this storm has a long history of completely stripping trees of their leaves.

The sound in the video below is terrifying, it sounds like some huge monster exhaling through its teeth.

Just now, jbenedet said:

Irma was a good table setter for widespread record river flooding...

landslides might be a big problem because of this

Just now, CoastalWx said:

The 140 gust was on an island just ENE of PR. I'm sure there were gusts near that in PR..but you won't know probably thanks to power or equipment failure.

Yeah that was the 112 sustained / 140 gust report.  I'm sure the taller peaks on PR probably exceeded that.  Any idea how close the eye of Maria came to the higher mountains in east-central PR, Scott?

New 8 am advisory still has the storm at 150 mph / 921 mb

Just now, JC-CT said:

1 minute ago, Paragon said:

Can't be thinking about this before Monday.
 

No question there has been a trend towards a closer track to the east coast. Just still plenty of time for that to completely reverse itself.

Yes, we have two distinct camps.  So there's a lot of interest in what might happen next week, but I'm a bit burnt out staying up til 2 am looking at Jose modeling most of last week, and all we had was a couple of downpours and some nice cool breezes  Still appreciate the updates though, especially since even the "out to sea" camp has the storm getting pretty close to the coast before veering away.

5 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

15 minutes ago, senc30 said:

Can you post a comparison?
 

Still too far out to matter.

Can't be thinking about this before Monday.

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Several rivers are already at record flood stage.

 

 

double digit rainfall totals already being reported!

10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

No. That storm made additional landfalls in Jamaica and Belize. By the time it made landfall in Belize, it was a tropical storm.

Don, interesting list of analogs we can come up with, major hurricanes that hit PR and what they did afterwards?  1928 Cat 5, hit Fla "Lake Okeechobee Hurricane", 1932 Cat 4 as you stated, went into Central America as a TS, 1989 Hugo went on to hit SC as a Cat 4, and now we have Maria.

Just now, bluewave said:

The 113 mph gust was the last report out of San Juan.

A sustained wind of 64 mph (104 km/h) with a gust to 113 mph
(182 km/h) was recently reported at San Juan, Puerto Rico.

Yes, that's the one I just heard about.  Strongest wind gust from anywhere in PR I can find is 118 mph from Santiago Harbor.

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

San Juan airport stopped reporting a few hours ago when the wind gusts reached 91 mph.

 

 

 

Chris, surrounding areas reported wind gusts in the 110s (113-118 mph).  Strongest gust I can find anywhere is 137-140 mph (112 sustained) on a small island just to the east of PR.

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

No this was not a cat 5 at landfall. 

Yeah, it didn't seem like it to me either, especially with the wind reports coming in it seemed more like a 135-140 mph storm at landfall.

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

There was a tremendous burst of -70C cloud tops in the RFQ just prior to LF. Maria was likely intensifying and might have actually recovered enough to be a cat 5 at LF. 

Since then the eye on IR has completely collapsed as Maria's center begins to interact with the mountains near the center of PR.

You mean an Andrew-like scenario?  That one was reclassified to a Cat 5 landfall.

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It intensified more than I had thought....so the difference is because of the 175 mph initial intensity....I was expecting like 155-160mph peak.

Yeah none of the major models had it getting this strong.  What was the minimum pressure with this- 909, I think?  It was 914 with Irma.  But I think the HH dropsondes found somewhat lower pressures- 905 mb with Maria, and 910 mb with Irma.

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Radar observations from the San Juan WSR-88D and wind data from an
Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
Maria has just about completed an eyewall replacement.  Based on
the now-dominant outer eyewall, the eye diameter has increased from
10 n mi to 30 n mi.  This has likely contributed to some weakening,
and based on the latest observations from the Hurricane Hunters, the
intensity is set at 135 kt which is at the top of category 4 range.

 

Looks like my call wasn't totally off-base after all,...just somewhat aggressive with the weakening.

Figures it'd landfall at 155, Ray, just below Cat 5 intensity.  Now we can have the argument that since winds are reported at 5 mph intervals, why 157 is the minimum for Cat 5, and not 155!  Since a 157 mph wind would never be reported.  Of course, based on the observations, it's doubtful this was even 155 mph sustained on landfall.  More like 135-140.

Last Cat 4 landfall in PR was 1932- I wonder if that was the same storm that LF'd in Fla  too?

Just now, Windspeed said:

Quote

Geostationary satellite images and surface observations indicate that the center of Hurricane Maria made landfall near Yabucoa, Puerto Rico, around 615 AM AST.

YUP, AWT ;-) sustained winds of 155 mph pressure 917 mb

Wind of 112 mph sustained gusting to 140 mph was reported earlier from Isla Culebrita Light, east of PR

12 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Last scans before TJUA went out.

ah well, at least we know that Yabucoa is the landfall point.  Strongest gusts still around 100 mph?

1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

16 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Down to 155 mph- very strong Cat 4

 

Thanks for the radar images, it really puts the storm into perspective with the PR eastern coastline.
 

Enjoy radar while it lasts. I am going to be extremely shocked if it lasts much longer. Velocity is already 100+ at the station.

San Juan wind just gusted to 91, while the eastern coastline is gusting to 100 already.

2 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:

Seeing 170-174mph winds on Radar at 300 feet near the south coast of PR.

Land elevation may result in widespread cat 5 speeds even though sea level is held just below at 155mph cat 4.

That was my fear with this, land elevation will cause elevated wind speeds.  And widespread landslides.

Down to 155 mph- very strong Cat 4

Thanks for the radar images, it really puts the storm into perspective with the PR eastern coastline.

Humacao and Fajardo to be getting the worst of the eyewall in the next few hours.