Wonderdog
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Everything posted by Wonderdog
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Keep the faith brother. hm is anticipating coastal storms at the end of the month(our prime climo time).
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WWA issued! Up to an inch of snow; .1 of ice.
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NAO index goes negative at end of month. Doesn't that indicate east coast storms are likely to be more prevalent?
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Not much to look forward to the next two weeks looking at the overnight model runs. The ICON has hinted at a storm off the east coast around the 22nd but at H5 the ridging is in the middle of the country. Now if we could just move it westward around 800 miles.
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Lol. They were forecasted a week out
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H5 starts a NE track from OK to MO at the end of the run, it appears. And Bob, that's a bold toss
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Much much slower and good move to the south. Precip field has a sw to NE track as opposed to earlier runs.
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You're right.
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My bad. I thought the op lost the possible coastal on the 24th. I have to stop looking at the models using my phone.
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I'm betting that the GEFS don't look so good.
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And we have 5 days to get the primary down to West VA.
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As depicted, we're very close to a nice event on the 24th or 23rd.
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Looks like things settled down overnight wrt next weekend's storm with the lp getting into a better place. Wouldn't take much to get it back to where it was imo. Maybe just a blip on the models. 6z is also showing a bonafide coastal the next weekend. Some have said it takes time for a pattern change to pay off. I'm beginning to believe that. Hopefully by Tuesday, we'll have clarity on the first storm of the pattern change.
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We need that developing low in sw to slide into the SE
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Oh yeah, that's right. My bad.
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18z had initialization errors. No panic here.
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What's a HA event?
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Very cold. Nice to see.
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You and the others you mentioned know much much more than me. With this progressive flow, it just feels like the possible outcomes for late January into February are very hard for the models to handle and as a result we have to wait until we're within five days before gaining some clarity.
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Kind of hard to believe what the models spit out 10 days out when less than a week ago the current look didn't exist and most on this thread were anticipating almost no winter.
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Could an argument be made that the pattern change began when the mid Atlantic got some snow a couple of days ago?
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I've read a number of times over the years about the vortex breaking a piece off. Is that a normal process with the vortex and can that be forecasted?
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Lol. I got close to 3 inches so I broke out the toy. It was glorious.
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I like how the snow/rain hole remains over northern Virginia during the entire January 16th storm. Unbelievable!
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I like the look on the GFS for the storm on the 15th. Big improvements from the last few runs. Nice ridge out west; 1048 HP in upper midwest. To my untrained eyes, a continued southward progression of the trough could make for an interesting event.
