CP_WinterStorm

I've noted that the JAMSTEC actually does a decent job at this distance with the overall configuration of the SSTA in the Pacific during the DJF period. That said, the current forecast makes a half assed effort at a PDO regime change during the upcoming DJF period: Far from a solid +PDO but hopefully the severely negative period we're headed into, again, will be short lived.

It looks like ORD hit 94°F again today, which makes this four consecutive days at or above 94°F. The last time that was achieved was 13 years ago during the summer of 2012.

The Euro's Copernicus actually has an IOD forecast for most models: https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/c3s_seasonal/products/c3s_seasonal_plume_mm?area=iod&base_time=202506010000&type=plume Regardless, there is actually a pretty strong consensus towards a -IOD.

I'll gladly set a couple of fans outside to blow the severe weather back in your direction. I've had my fill of tornadoes and damaging wind for the year already!

Props to the AIFS, it's been south for days now with this system.

The last couple runs of the HRRR have been particularly ridiculous with that: I just want some good rain before the heat arrives this weekend.

That was something not on my bingo card for the year, and unlike anything I've ever experienced. Not having power (from the 70mph winds the night before) made it all the more special as all our windows were open as it began. That bank of trees, barely visible behind the homes on the far right of the image, is just under half a mile away from me. So while we didn't experience the near zero visibility that some did in Illinois and further south of us, it was still a truly wild event. Definitely gave me an appreciation for what our ancestors went through in the 1930's with the Dust Bowl.

Interesting you point that out. This time of year I start periodically checking the hurricane season analogs from Tropical Tidbits, and at the moment the top analog is 2013: ' Of course things will change, but there's definitely a nod towards 2013 right now.

This. This is the shit that has made me a long time lurker instead of a regular poster. The high-schoolers I work with regularly behave better than some of ya'll. Grow up.