eduggs

That's a ton of QPF on the CMC. Someone's getting a paste bomb if that's close to right.

Yeah you could describe it that way. But models don't know or care what the NAO or PNA are. Models just represent the physics. Climate indices are a way of simplifying and quantifying complex atmospheric states for easier human understanding. They aren't tangible things that have causal effects on anything.

Great CMC run. No deep cold, no major snow events, and complex shortwave interactions that will likely keep changing, but it's the best midrange run in a while!

The brutal stretch continues with virtually no trackable wintry threats for the foreseeable future. It's been almost 2 weeks of unfavorable model runs across the full suite since a few days before the December 17 event. Hopefully the wait will make it sweeter when the snow tracking resumes.

I don't buy this. Local snowcover definitely decreases surface temperatures, especially during clear, windless nights. So weather models, especially back in the early 90s, might have over-estimated temperatures when there was snowcover. It might also shift marginal wintry situations slightly colder, although this is questionable. But I believe that any significant impact of regional snowcover on synoptic scale track/features is anecdotal and not scientifically well supported.

No. I think any effect on synoptic level features is marginal. To the degree that snowcover affects large-scale patterns, it is hemispheric snow cover not regional snowcover that drives the influence.

That's a nice compilation of the past. But it doesn't tell us a whole lot about the future. We can try to make inferences to correlate, for example, December with the entire season, but we'd be on really shaky statistical ground.

Exactly my point. If you want to make predictions regarding weather likelihoods based on climatological indices, you have to be precise about the locations of both the weather and the indices in question. A "blocky" pattern is a very broad statement that can have a wide range of implications for the northeast US.

I don't think one December storm has much bearing on how the rest of the season will play out. Places that are above average snowfall for this date probably have a better than 50% chance of finishing above average for the season. But that's about all you can say.

Past snowfalls cannot predict future snowfalls no matter what some wannabe statisticians say. So I agree nobody should be throwing in the towel. Snow events often come unexpectedly. And you're right that most of the area has already received a moderate to major snowfall event. I would just caution against using snowfall totals from any specific location to make general claims. It seems like you're saying the same thing. In parts of the mid-Hudson valley 12/17 was a major event. And in some parts of C and NNJ it was barely a moderate event.

The immediate NYC area got a little lucky in terms of snowfall on Dec 17. Lots of areas surrounding the City received noticeably less.

If we want to make statistical inferences based on "blocking," I think we have to define the term a lot more precisely. Right now the term is thrown around very unscientifically. It matters a lot how we define it and the specific region we are referring to.

Rain deep into interior Quebec on back to back to back storms has gotta be unusual for late December.

It's something.

The models started shifting away from us on December 15 and just keep going in the wrong direction. It's a familiar feeling.

The 500mb progression looks dreadful on all guidance out at least 7 days. Although I suppose the storm around NYE could correct more favorably. It looks a lot like tonight's event.

Seeing page after page of long range teleconnections and too-small-sample size statistics is never a good sign for snow threats.

I don't hate the H5 look for Mon/Tue on the CMC either. There's still a lot of work to do but we're 4 days out. 10 years ago it would have seemed more likely. But modeling has definitely improved despite what some say. So less chance of dramatic model changes in the short-mid range.

The follow up Mon-Tue trof is a longshot for snow but it doesn't look completely impossible. There are several interacting shortwaves that muddle the picture and there's probably not quite enough room behind the departing system. But the airmass is a little colder and it's at least something to watch. I could see SNJ getting grazed with precipitation.

I think some people dislike seafood because they had a bad experience with fishy tasting and smelling fish as a child. Mild, flaky fish like Cod, Sole, and maybe Trout as well as scallops are a much more pleasant early introduction to the world of seafood IMO.