Chicago Storm

Low hanging fruit
 
White rain here, decent ish flake size but gonna take total rippage to stick on the warm wet ground

0.2” ORD. Snowiest Halloween on record.


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MLI is 1.4” from the all time snowiest October on record.


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Today looks like a rainer/white rainer imby with a 1-2 hr window of rip city on the back end with the lake enhanced defo. DAB+ to 2 was a good call here and see no reason to change.
Office should manage 3-5 and commute to ge home and go trick or treating gonna be a challenge later

About a ~1/2” here so far.

ORD flipped to snow around 4AM.


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P-type starting to bounce around here, between rain/ice pellets/snow.

Snowing in DKB already, and down to 32.

5 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

ILX seems to be concerned of drier air mixing out ice nuclei causing a possible drizzle situation over snow. But I'm not really seeing this in models

HRRR/RAP show this...but doesn't appear to hinder snowfall accumulations much.

1 minute ago, Baum said:

I'm waiting for the 18Z EURO map

Widespread 2-6".

8 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Looks about right

It's not doing so hot so far...

The R/S line is steadily working east...located just east of an RFD to RPJ to GBG line. Already into the 12-6AM area.

FYI, none of the GEFS hold on to the lake shadow like the OP does.

8 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

it's happening 

Need a wager here.

14 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

i see NE winds off the lake into the city through 18z on the GFS 

 

12 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

GFS/HRRR almost certainly on to something here keeping low level flow off lake for a longer period and i don't expect a flip here locally until 1-2 pm tomorrow, but should see a brief window for accums, maybe DAB+ to 2 if everything breaks right

 

They don't have a flow off the lake, they're just slower with CAA. HRRR has NNW winds by 6z.

Seems like widespread agreement on 2-6" tonight/tomorrow across the area. Several models are higher than that, but given their performance last night have to shave some off...though it was a different setup. In this case we'll have the storm deepening, wrapping up and CAA setting in.

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Think like 1-1.5" is a reasonable call here tomorrow.  I am not sure what the hell the HRRR is doing with diurnally warming temps in and around Chicago metro tomorrow.  CAA and precip should keep temps falling.

Both the GFS and HRRR seem to be on an island regarding this. Everything else has CAA kick in, with a flip to snow this evening or tonight across the area.

1.2" ORD and 1.4" MDW last night/this morning.

As previously mentioned, ORD broke the snowfall record for the date of 0.7" (1923).

That axis of snow last night and this morning from W IL into N IL ended up much more narrow than pretty much any model showed, even the NAM's, which usually do a fairly good job with banding. All guidance did a terrible job on amounts, and even QPF as well.

Based on reports, it looks like the main axis was ~15mile wide with 1-3.5", and a DAB surrounding that.

Lol euro

0.9” ORD so far.

Breaks record for the date of 0.7” (1923).


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16 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Does it get snow to the lake tonight or is that all from Thursday?

Just now, Hoosier said:

Yeah but the storm is still going a couple days from now. 

We'll get a good idea by tomorrow morning if that has any shot at verifying.

Truth. I mean half of that is from tonight alone.

Just now, Hoosier said:

Overdone or not, it is nuts to see a map like that only a couple days out from what tends to be the most reliable model.  

More like hours out at this point.

18z Euro has an axis of 6-11" tonight across portions of N/C. IL. Then wraps up the system on Thursday, with another more widespread 3-7".

Just now, CoalCityWxMan said:

Mind sharing a snow map?