Chicago Storm

0z NAM didn’t have a terrible track, but it’s running warmer with thermals.


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0z GFS going to come in back south.


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0.4" at ORD and 0.2" here with the frontal passage today.

Just now, Angrysummons said:

HRRR has a cold bias that would make the GFS blush.

It actually does very well around here.

Things trending better for a 0.5-2" event across the area tomorrow/tomorrow evening.

HRRR has mid -10's for lows at ORD tonight and tomorrow night.

Not records, but could rival the extreme cold of January 2014. Lowest during that period was -16 at ORD.

1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

When is this energy sampled?

Decent sampling for Saturday evening runs, and fully for 12z Sunday runs.

1 hour ago, janetjanet998 said:

FVS-GFS= poof on the monday system

I've noticed on non-main storm systems it has struggled in really showing a system at all.

First call -28 coldest at ORD during the period.

4 minutes ago, Stebo said:

What is Chicago's coldest temperature ever? Euro has -31 and -33 at day 8.5 for ORD and MDW.

Record is -27 on 1/20/1985.

Finished with 1.5" of snow at ORD.

Ended with 3.4" snow and 0.15" of ice here.

The 0z ECMWF is a mega big dog.

~1.20" QPF and ~24" here and ORD.

0.5" at ORD thus far. Has been rain there for a while now too.

2.0" here.

Snow has turned to all rain now.

29 minutes ago, UMB WX said:

Minus the optimism.

He was next level optimistic. Good people.

14 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

40dbz snow here...Huge golf ball sized flakes, with some around 2" in diameter.

Make that 50dbz snow here now. 

40dbz snow here...Huge golf ball sized flakes, with some around 2" in diameter.

Turned from FZRA to snow here about 2 1/2 hours ago. It's mostly been light, but did have a period of borderline heavy snow.

Final ice accumulation will go down as 0.15", with 0.7" of snow thus far.

13 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

if it is correct Lacon IL reporting heavy snow under those bands

 

edit: but vis 1 mile

can't be correct... heavy sleet maybe?

CC suggests it rain or mix there.

Just now, StormChaser4Life said:

If I'm not mistaken that's derived from rap data. I was looking for actual observed pressure falls

https://weather.cod.edu/analysis/

0.15" ice accrual here so far.

Biggest ice event in years here.

2 minutes ago, michaelmantis said:

I live in Elgin, work near Libertyville. I'm most likely going to wake up to a dusting of snow here and at my office could be a big snow... Think I'm working from home tomorrow... :-)

Given axis orientation, what you get at home should be about the same as at work.

Just now, ConvectiveIA said:

I think that right now the RAP and HRRR are too far south with the cutoff as snow has already developed in areas northwest of it. The RDPS looks more realistic

It's early, precip still has a long way to go to fill in.

28 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Nam was definitely way too cold like several people noted. I'm shocked though given the precedent arctic air mass and snow pack. Goes to show you aggressive WAA can overcome a lot. Already at or slightly above freezing here

You shouldn't be shocked. This is like clockwork when there's strong WAA.

48 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

One of the places it's too cold is in southern LOT.  Even around here, temps are already near 30.  HRRR has freezing temps hanging on here through 6 pm, but I can't see it at this rate, even accounting for periods when the temp may stagnate with precip/wet bulbing.  

Temps around 32 now for southern CWA.