Chicago Storm
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Everything posted by Chicago Storm
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Congrats tomorrow-Wednesday. .
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GEM continues to hold firm on wave 1, with the UKMET not too far off. The GFS/Euro continue to bump south each run. .
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The GFS has been bumping south each run, and the UKMET was in similar range of the GEM. .
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Fantasy HRRR, but not far off the GEM solution. .
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Only goes to 90hrs, but aloft would suggest it would end up potential south of 12z. More ridging ahead of the closing off wave, however like the GFS, the northern stream is pressing in more across Canada. .
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It has to do with the pattern further north. The wave ends up shearing out to the east.
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It won't matter if the system is as significant as modeled.
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Fairly large bump south coming from the Euro for Tue/Wed lead wave.
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Makes sense. Trend is good for now at least, and appears Euro will follow as well with a bump south.
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I'd disagree overall. Fairly solid agreement on a swath of at least 3-6" across portions of IA/WI/IL/MI. South end of it, yea still a question. Will depend on how strong WAA is, with this wave lacking any significant SLP.
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It doesn't hurt to have the lead wave trend south in this case. Definitely fully in play for both events still.
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UKMET continuing the tend of bumping south for the Tue-Wed lead wave. .
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Tue/Wed wave continues to trend south on most guidance. Decent snows into the LOT CWA now. .
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That's the down side. The lead wave still has snow potential, but this second potentially main wave is now later on. Good news is that most of the players should be on land by Monday night.
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Euro finally flipped. Cuts a 998mb SLP up to DTW.
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you know it. the week leading into christmas through a few days after new years is just about the only period i'll root for just about any sort of accumulation. outside of that, pass unless it's 6" or much greater.
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Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion
Chicago Storm replied to Hoosier's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Picking up that 0.2” Thursday morning kind of killed off those vibes for now. . -
you know there’s a problem when i’m leading the optimistic wisdom train, and not the futility train. .
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Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion
Chicago Storm replied to Hoosier's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
It’s not a secondary, it’s the main system on most guidance now. The initial wave ejection is turning into a glorified front/overrunning event now. . -
Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion
Chicago Storm replied to Hoosier's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
There will be no futility to root for after this upcoming week. . -
Para GFS... .
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GEM throws another new scenario on the table. Lead wave ejects out as a glorified overrunning/frontal event, followed by a delayed ejection of the 2nd wave not until Thur/Fri, as a very wrapped up/occluded system...over DSM by Fri morning. .
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Too soon. .
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Euro, similar to the GEM, dives the northern wave in while the trough is over the Rockies and Plains...this leading to a more sig outcome. .
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Ukie has a solution of its own. Northern stream misses, so southern wave ejects out late and well south. Main snows are actually overrunning/frontal. .
