Cerakoter1984

By late summer, that puts a ridge over the west coast, kills the ATL hurricane season and warms the PDO, correct?

You don't think this will verify? If you want the Niño to complete (strengthen), and to get PDO support later in the summer, you want this to happen, cycle through, retrograde, and happen again. Right?

I'll give you this, though. That was a rather impressive 2 month run up to positive in certain Niño regions and enough to bring rainfall back to many of the areas of the US that really needed it.

I do know one thing, if you guys are right and what I have read about the link between AMO and the North Pacific hold true, our weather will get a lot more interesting as the year goes along. Especially after July passed. The storm track has been so lazy and lax for 3 years and it makes it hard to break out of very persistent weather patterns.

Of the +.4° Global temp anomaly right now, right at or just over half of it is ocean temp. (+.2°C)

Yeah. We have dropped a long way in global temp from the hysteria of a couple years ago. Whenever the extreme heat in the Atlantic and the heat off S. America dissipate, there won't be much heat to talk about for a bit without a Niño.

Don't get me wrong, I can promise you I really really x1000 really want a weak Niño going into this autumn and winter. I also DO acknowledge that the atmosphere looks like Niño quite a lot right now. (Warm ridging over the northern central plains and into central Canada, cool moist underneath and cutoffs forecast to keep hitting the west coast) Problem is that it's more of a reflection of what I know to be a winter Niño state than what is commonly associated with a developing Niño in the summertime. Hence why my weight is pretty heavy on it failing. It will be fun to watch and see though.

I wholeheartedly understand the correlation between Niño/Niña and +PNA/-PNA (Moreso, really, PDO state, as PNA state is a reflection or effect of PDO/Niño coupling). However, there's nothing at all though, to indicate to me that after the upcoming trades burst we will see sufficient Westerly wind bursts to reinforce or even get the Niño off the ground. There's just not enough atmospheric support there to flip the state all the way over in my opinion. I think the subsurface warming will dissipate pretty quickly or simply fail to surface.

I'm speaking in terms of official, not briefly going above for a month or 2 and crashing back to normal or just below again for folks to say "close enough". Know what I mean. I was around here for all the hype leading up to the 2016 "Super" Niño. It was hyped and forecasted for 2 solid years before actually being a real Niño. I see the maps repeatedly posted. You have any descriptive or technical info to back them up or go with them? Ie: "Why 'this' supports 'that'? Or what point you're making. It may draw more discussion to your thoughts.

I think it's a head-fake that never becomes a Niño. Warm-neutral with folks trying to call it a Niño is my call.

My nephew went to a youth event up there it was quite chilly for them. Been quite the April opener this year for sure. Year without a spring continues. Going straight to summer out west this week.

Looking like an interesting weekend on tap next weekend as well.

Besides being nearly the worst state in every relevant statistical category, it doesn't snow anymore either. I'd move tomorrow if I could. I'm going to finish with .2" of actual measurable snow. Just wow is right. Literally almost the entire Gulf coast (except south Florida) got more snow than we did. @raindance: Good work. Your precipitation forecast over this area was literally saved by the last 10 or so days of February. Cutting it close. Lol. Great job and awesome work.

Never say never...

I never really followed the Heady pattern so I can't really speak to it.

Lezak's pattern doesn't work in years like this one until it's already almost too late.

There should be some disappearing reappearing of that system over the next few days but it looks to have a shot.

Things continue head in a positive direction as far as the progression vs my analogs. Curiosity has wondering if this evolves into a 1978/2013 type of winter that lays down cold and snow then locks it in place here. I'm anxious to see what the final anomalies look like vs my maps.

I don't mind it. Glad it's cooling down and it's at least some possible rainfall.

Upcoming 15 days of December looking pretty radical. Regardless what modelling is currently showing, there should be a nice southern U.S. storm in there before long. Pattern looks amazing. This pattern is how you get snow AND keep it for a long time if everything works out right.

I think there's a way to combine and use his technique with others to produce longer range and much more accurate mid-range weather forecasts for event timing, precip liklihood etc... Just not sure exactly what that is yet. I agree with your post about when the pattern "starts". My thought is and always has been that a new pattern started between June 25 and July 10 every year but some are just much harder to detect. Every way I tried to sort reasonable and best analogs when I was doing them a few months back still gave me the same map with the SW ridge. Pretty interesting that they arrived at the same idea.

Given what I've seen the past few weeks, interesting events coming up in la la land on the models may actually have some merit to it around the 5th. Give/take a day or 2.

First pattern I've seen begin to repeat or lock on Euro since mid Autumn. Hope it happens.

My comment won't get close to doing it justice but just wanted to say you do great work. That stuff is awesome to me.

What a GFS run that was. Lol