Round Hill WX

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Was like 6” at my house and I believe had some 10-12” reports S and E of DC. Had a strong gradient with the N and W folks getting actually fringed for once. 

It was a mess on 95 for that one.

Virginia's I-95 reopens after winter storm strands drivers | CNN

The December EURO seasonal for JAN/FEB/MAR is pretty sweet. 

16 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Interesting that 09/10 is being bantered about. Late December Snowpocalypse was followed by a kind of boring January with a couple of small events and then boom. I know some are concerned with the position of the Aleutian low. But look at its position heading into the December blizzard. Looks pretty similar to the predominate position we are seeing on guidance to me. We just arent seeing a southern stream storm next week. Now the one after that?

 

 

That was such a beautiful set-up. Perfect AL low position, ridge pumped over Idaho, and the trough going neutral/negative over the Mississippi, then confluence/blocking to our north.

Similar look out west here on the ensemble ~ 12/5. It's more progressive than 2009 so we don't get the southern stream amplification, but it's worth watching at a minimum, and encouraging to see as we head into better climo. 

2 more town wells have gone dry here in Round Hill prompting this:

NOTICE: On November 1, 2023 the Mayor & Town Council of Round Hill declared Mandatory Water Conservation Phase One effective November 2, 2023.

Round Hill is currently under a Severe Drought. All customers of the Town's water system are requested to conserve wherever and whenever possible in their normal consumption of water. It shall be unlawful for any person to use water from the Town's water system for the purpose of watering lawns and gardens, washing cars, filling swimming pools, and like activities. Any person or customer found conducting any of these prohibited uses shall be subject to a fine not to exceed five hundred ($500) dollars for each violation.

Please refrain from such activities as the following:

•No washing or using water hoses on paved areas, buildings, windows, or hard-surfaced areas,

•No operating ornamental fountains,

•No washing or rinsing vehicles by hose,

•No new landscaping established (unless you use rain barrels to water)

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I think people way over analyze these seasonal charts, but I guess it’s all we got for now. Still think if you blend euro and cansips, it’s a pretty solid look and doesn’t change my prior that this winter probably ends up a bit AN in totality for temps but we get around climo for snowfall. 

The take-away with the EC/Cansips for DJF is it's the best look for winter we've had in several years. Not excited yet but if the general idea continues into November I'm going to get that "special feeling" about winter 23/24. 

Beautiful night for football in Round Hill. 

Beautiful 47 low. Good football weather this afternoon.

16 hours ago, midatlanticweather said:

I cannot believe I am getting the scraps again out here in Purcellville. The storms are all to the east. Only some brief showers here. Not looking good for the drought 

@Round Hill WXyou may not even have a drop

 

Ended up w/ 0.11" last night. 0.74" for the prior week. It was absolutely painful to watch the storms form and miss our area day after day. So many of the corn fields are dead...some have just been cut because the corn never fully produced. Also hearing people getting sediment in their wells as they dry. Not good at all....

My boys football game was canceled due to lightning nearby. It rained lightly for about 5 minutes. Second day in a row western loudoun missed out while just to the east has flood warnings. The drought continues. 

.06" of rain here in Round Hill. Just enough to keep the dust down....

96 today in Round Hill. 97 is my yearly high…I expect we’ll beat that the next couple of days. We were outside today and it was warm but not brutal…dry and a nice breeze made for a tolerable experience at the brewery.

Ended the month of August with only 0.58” of rain in Round Hill. 2 of the towns 12 wells that supply water to residents have been turned off due to low production. The town currently has water restrictions in place. Next 10 days don’t look promising for any relief. On a side note, several copperhead and timber rattlers have been spotted as they leave their den radius in search of water. 

11 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I’m mobile so I’m not sure I’m getting this right, but I’m seeing very few major hurricane landfalls in the Big Bend area, and really from Appalachicola to Tampa.

https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#map=6.76/29.139/-83.246&search=eyJzZWFyY2hTdHJpbmciOiJGbG9yaWRhLCBVU0EiLCJzZWFyY2hUeXBlIjoiZ2VvY29kZWQiLCJvc21JRCI6IjE2MjA1MCIsImNhdGVnb3JpZXMiOlsiSDUiLCJINCIsIkgzIl0sInllYXJzIjpbXSwibW9udGhzIjpbXSwiZW5zbyI6W10sInByZXNzdXJlIjp7InJhbmdlIjpbMCwxMDMwXSwiaW5jbHVkZVVua25vd25QcmVzc3VyZSI6dHJ1ZX0sImJ1ZmZlciI6NjAsImJ1ZmZlclVuaXQiOlsiTmF1dGljYWwgTWlsZXMiXSwic29ydFNlbGVjdGlvbiI6eyJ2YWx1ZSI6InllYXJzX25ld2VzdCIsImxhYmVsIjoiWWVhciAoTmV3ZXN0KSJ9LCJhcHBseVRvQU9JIjp0cnVlLCJpc1N0b3JtTGFiZWxzVmlzaWJsZSI6dHJ1ZX0=

If landfall occurs in the Big Bend it would be best case scenario. There is very little population density or infrastructure. Tampa likely dodging it again....

Well aren't we special! Monday....

Nothing significant in Round Hill. The QLCS TOR warning passed just to the south fortunately. Will take the rain. 

North Arlington now. 

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

“It’s the pac” is a matter of degrees. But for those that want to stick to that, explain why we are doing worse wrt snow lately than previous -pdo periods when the pac was every bit as hostile as it’s been lately. 

I don’t have an argument either way. However, from a statistical variance perspective, it is impossible to definitively construe an argument either way due to extremely limited sample size. 

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

So did the first chance. That’s the MO for the season. A great 10-12 look turns into a completely different look by day 7-9. It’s happened all winter long.

The good news is meteorological winter starts in less than 10 months. 

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

00z that bad??


.

GFS is a significant winter storm. 

Interesting temp swing here. 35 minutes ago it dropped to 57. Now back up to 71 and climbing. Winds kicked up just a bit to mix it up. 

77 in Round Hill. Might have a couple of deck beers later this afternoon.

Just now, pazzo83 said:

to me the most unnerving thing is that it's not like we've had shots of freak warmth (although we might get that next week).  Sure, we've gotten to around 70, but that isn't THAT atypical for a given winter for it to happen once or twice.  It's just been... mild - basically wall to wall.  It hasn't felt like winter at all except for a few fleeting moments.

La Ninas will do that.

3 degree low in Round Hill. Lowest temp of 2022. 

4 hours ago, George BM said:

Interested in what precip type @Round Hill WX and @midatlanticweather are getting with this line.

I had a couple too many beers last night and slept right thru the line. Haha. Woke up to the wind just after it passed. We lost power for about 2 hours but back on now. Down to 19.

About 1/2” of snow/sleet in Round Hill. Over the rain now. Nice to see the ground white I guess. 33/32